SPECULATION The Rise of Skywalker Box Office Predictions

I can't believe how close we are to the opening. But I won't get to see it until the 21st because of work.

 

Makes no sense. Chinese market for Star Wars is usually next to nothing.

TFA did over $1B International with next to nothing from China
TLH did over $700M International with next to nothing from China
TROS is going to do $220M International? Really?

 

FWIW the Google Trends data looks pretty good for TROS. The marketing has been much different this time around. Seems like after the Disney+ launch they really kicked it into high gear. The interest in the US is as high in search trends as it was before The Last Jedi at this stage in 2017.

 

I want to give context as to why my prediction is one of the lowest regarding opening weekend. I feel the December 20th date that is so close to Christmas is pushing many fans to seeing it the 2nd weekend (or 2nd week) after Christmas when they have off from work. I have talked to many co-workers who are SW fans and none of them are seeing it the first weekend because of holiday shopping, christmas parties, kids getting done school, etc. I get the same response, "I'll probably see it the next weekend when things die down."

I look at my local theaters and there are good seats still available for the first weekend, and it wasn't like that for TFA and TLJ. They added alot of shows in the days leading up to those movies to meet demand, but not for TROS. I still haven't bought tickets yet (my best friend and I have seen every SW movie together since 1997 SE on opening weekend), as we are still trying to figure out what time we want to see it trying to navigate work and family. The point is there is no fear that we will get shut out because of sold out shows.

So I think TROS will have a better 2nd weekend then most blockbusters (the average blockbuster drops 60%), so it should make up the lower projected opening weekend after Christmas. So I'm sticking with 190 million opening weekend.

 

I just throw in my random but precise predictions:
Opening $211m
Domestic Total will be
$700m
And Worldwide Total I expect around $1.2b

 

Thanks for growing the list!


Domestic Opening
174m - @Rogues1138
185m - @Travcon
190m - @Jedi77-83
200m - @Darth Wardawg
211m - @Meister Yoda
220m - @Palpatine was Framed
225m - @Addi Ras
227.5m - @FN-3263827
228m - @Bluemilk
230m - @Rodney-2187
255m - @oldbert
255,382,320 - @Fearghas_Ajax
260m - @Porco Azzurro
265m - @Too Gon Onbourbon
300m - @DarthSnow
325m - @Anubis78

Domestic Total
700m - @Meister Yoda
700m - @Travcon
740m - @Addi Ras
750m - @Rodney-2187
770m - @Palpatine was Framed
800m - @Porco Azzurro
871.3m - @FN-3263827
873m - @oldbert
873,028,820 - @Fearghas_Ajax
925m - @Too Gon Onbourbon

Worldwide Total
920m - @Travcon
980m - @Shadowblade
1.2b - @Meister Yoda
1.35b - @Palpatine was Framed
1.45b - @FN-3263827
1.5b - @Darth Wardawg
1.5b - @Rodney-2187
1.6b - @Too Gon Onbourbon
1.7b - @Addi Ras
1.7b - @Porco Azzurro
1.92b - @oldbert
1,923,138,800 - @Fearghas_Ajax

Other Predictions
1.2b-1.5b - @DailyPlunge

 

@DarthSnow gonna make it rain!

 

Can we redo our predictions? Based on the latest trailer I would have to up my projections substantially.

 

Domestic Opening - $224,000,000
Domestic Total - $852,000,000
Worldwide - $1,640,000,000

(Whichever way, that's some serious bunce!)

 

Yes, the Deadline is Tuesday, Dec. 17th.

I will update the list between now and then as needed, and if no one else does I will post a final list Wednesday morning.

 

$205 million Opening Weekend
$850 million Domestic total
$1.4 billion WW total

 

@Bluemilk, you're not looking so good. You look like you're coming down with the flu or something...

 

So it's a five day opening weekend from Dec. 18-22nd? So Wednesday and Thursday for hardcore fans, and Friday to Sunday general audience?

 

For the domestic opening, I think it's mainly showtimes starting around 5pm Thursday evening with Fri, Sat, and Sun being full days. The only thing on Wednesday is the marathon and that's only in a handful of theaters. It's a similar release to the other movies. In other countries it opens a day or so earlier, but I don't know the specifics.

 

Ok thanks, I was gonna change my score but I'll keep it.

 

So here's my final predictions. I'm basing on this the film arriving to reviews of around 83% on RT. I suspect the reviews will be in line with Rogue One. Critics didn't like it as much, but I suspect fans will love it. If that's the case....

$200M opening weekend in the US. $1.4B total gross.

 

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