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Box Office Thread

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi' started by Julius Fett, Sep 16, 2017.

  1. FN-3263827

    FN-3263827 First Order CPS
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    this is an interesting thought! but is there any reason to believe that casual OT fans weren't coming to see TFA?
     
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  2. Julius Fett

    Julius Fett Force Sensitive

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    Well, I mean, the selling point to each final film in a SW trilogy so far has been "well, this could be the end for the episodic saga", and I see LFL leaning into that (even if it turns out not be the case).

    This being Luke's real "return" teased at the end of TFA has been playing on the mind of the audience for two years now, so I think that, without a doubt, you'll get the majority that saw TFA back in the theatre. Repeat viewings are where films like this are made or broken, so it'll be interesting to see what goes on in its fourth and fifth week and onwards.

    Sadly, I think it has to be mentioned, another point to mention is that this was indeed Carrie Fisher's final film as Leia. Many turned out to see The Dark Knight after Heath Ledger passed, for that reason alone, and I think it's worth mentioning that Carrie's passing too could have an effect on the performance of this film.

    If this is lauded as Carrie's best performance as Leia? I think you'll see many more casual moviegoers making the move to see the film.
     
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  3. Jedi77-83

    Jedi77-83 Force Sensitive

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    I do know some co-workers who loved SW in 1977 (they are in their mid 40's) who saw TFA (coincidentally they only saw TPM too), so I'm anxious if Luke Skywalker gets them to the theater this December. They saw TPM and TFA more as generational event films, not necessarily as SW films.
     
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  4. FN-3263827

    FN-3263827 First Order CPS
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    oh, i get what you mean now. that is really interesting. the older of my two brothers was pretty gung-ho about the PT, but wasn't the least bit interested in TFA, though he saw it. which i find curious because my other brother and i had a completely different reaction. and you're right, i'm sure he'll be in no big hurry to see TLJ, though the promise of Luke might get him there. on the other hand, my sister, who never had any real interest in Star Wars and couldn't even remember that Darth Vader was saved from the Dark side at the end of the OT until a couple of summers ago, will now be lining up opening day for TLJ ~ hahaha

    perhaps there really is no way of predicting. i find it all very interesting.
     
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  5. Jedi77-83

    Jedi77-83 Force Sensitive

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    My older brother's friends (who saw SW as teenagers in 1977) only love the original movie and that's it. Every few years at parties I get in arguments with them because they hate ESB and despise ROTJ. They hate Vader being Luke's father and think Luke/Leia siblings is when the series jumped the shark. But they still consider the Original SW is an utter classic that still holds up. For the record, they did not see any PT movies, did see TFA, and the jury is out on TLJ... All of this makes sense when you look at those box office numbers above.
     
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  6. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Jedi General

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    Warner Brothers marketed dead Ledger before TDK came out - he was marketed as the antagonist. Leia barely gets attention in comparison, most of it talk revolving around how her actress is not alive anymore.

    Han Solo was the character people were looking to most before TFA came out back in 2014 before they started really marketing and shaping people's perceptions.

    http://www.broadwayworld.com/bwwgee...ed-to-see-return-of-Harrison-Ford-69-20140519
     
  7. Boss Vos

    Boss Vos Rebel Official

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    My bet is somewhere between the range of 1.4 to 1.6 billion. There's no way in hell this film will top TFA.
     
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  8. Maximus

    Maximus Reel 2 Dialogue 2

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    this is where i'm thinking.

    i was going to go off-piste and make a silly declaration that TLJ will break TFA's records.. but perhaps a little shy of TFA's numbers is more logical.

    i would have estimated a lot lower.. but R1's number really surprised me. I suspect the numbers in China could be higher this time around.. but we'll see.

    :)
     
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  9. FN-3263827

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    the usual arguments apply here: longer runtime means potentially fewer screenings, we'll lose some cranky members of the fandom who are peeved that Luke doesn't pull down a star destroyer with the Force (or whatever their beef is), and therefore fewer repeat viewings. will it be too scary or intense for children? people who didn't like TFA may skip it, etc.

    i know there's little chance of me seeing this one in the theatre as many times as i saw TFA; i just don't have the bandwidth to do that this time around.
    though i will definitely try to go as often as i can. : D
     
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  10. Boss Vos

    Boss Vos Rebel Official

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    Trust me. I've lived in China for 4 years and they are not that interested in Star Wars. While there's certainly a small minority of new fans, it's not even near that of other fandoms such as Marvel.
     
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  11. Maximus

    Maximus Reel 2 Dialogue 2

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    i'll bow to your knowledge here.. i know R1 did terrible in the box office in China, but i would have thought that Disney would have gone balls-out to get the ppl of China more interested in TLJ... hence why i assume that the numbers might be a bit better this time around.

    there is a disney land park in China is there not? are Disney Star Wars.. ising it?

    i don't think ANH was even shown over there in 77?

    as you may be able to tell... i know nothing about this subject :D
     
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  12. Boss Vos

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    Surely, they are doing their best to promote Star Wars in China, but there's only so much you can do. Word of mouth is what drives the Chinese movie market, since Chinese people spend most of their time reading blog posts on Weixin, Sina Weibo and stuff like that.

    They have a Star Wars attraction on Shanghai Disneyland, yes, but to the Chinese audience is just another cool space movie. They don't have the cultural connection to Star Wars like people in America, Europe or Japan do.
     
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  13. Julius Fett

    Julius Fett Force Sensitive

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    After the trailer, I'm willing to adjust my predicted range accordingly, from a worldwide total at the end of its run of $1.5 - $1.8 billion up to $1.6 - $1.85 billion.

    Sure, it won't break many, if any, of TFA's box office records, but it's still going to break the box office.
     
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  14. Lord Skywalker

    Lord Skywalker Rebel Official

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    TLJ IMO will probably make between 1.1-1.5 billion, there are a LOT of critics for TFA and I doubt many of them will go see TLJ, plus this being the second film in the trilogy, they tend to do the worst of the films. ALTHOUGH, TLJ has things going for it, the real return of Luke Skywalker, the last time we'll see Leia on screen, a lot of people have taken a liking to Daisy Ridley as Rey
     
  15. Solo

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    Hey guys, just returned from the future with the correct figures:

    Opening Weekend

    Domestic opening weekend: $222.4 million
    Worldwide opening weekend: $492 million

    Total
    Domestic total: $867 million
    International total: $1.01 billion
    Worldwide total: $1.877 billion
     
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  16. Pomojema

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    I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that China never got to experience the Star Wars phenomenon that nearly every other country had when it the OT came out due to a number of political reasons (the "Cultural Revolution" and all that meant that the OT never got a theatrical run there, and was first screened in 2015), the Prequels hit the box office before the Chinese box office really mattered, and the Sequel Trilogy - as well as Rogue One - are both based on the viewers having a degree of familiarity of the events of the franchise. Compare that to the MCU or Transformers, which are both only a decade or so old, and arrived right as the box office over there became a much bigger deal - or even the more recent Fast & Furious movies.

    I do think it'll catch on eventually - there are too many people in that nation for it to not appeal to anyone. But I don't think it'll be the kind of franchise that has an installment that cracks $200M USD over the course of a six-week run - not even Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen could make Rogue One gross over $100M USD over there (which, to be fair, I'm also blaming on the nonexistent advertising for the movie, plus bad weather conditions on opening day). And I find that saddening considering that the phoned-in Independence Day sequel that sucked all kinds of keister was able to edge past the first Star Wars spin-off, and a generally China-friendly one at that.
     
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  17. Boss Vos

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    Yes, and I mentioned that earlier as well. Interestingly, Chinese people generally don't care if Hollywood puts people like Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen in their movies - when they watch Western movies they want to see our Western actors and actresses. Likewise, when they watch Chinese movies they want to see their own Chinese actors and actresses - they have a very precise preference when it comes to this.

    Although to be fair, they tend to get a little bit more excited when their female actresses get roles in Hollywood compared to their males actors. For example, when I watched X-Men: Days of Future Past in China, and Fan Bingbing entered the scene the whole audience went "WOOOOOOOOOAAAHHHH!". So my suggestion to Lucasfilm would be to cast a popular Chinese actress in a Star Wars film.
     
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  18. srg

    srg Force Attuned

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    I think I'll stick to my initial guess. It's quite optimistic and the positive response to the trailer makes me think it might get close.
     
  19. Rogues1138

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    I remember I couldn't get an early showing of TFA, I could only get late night showings, 2am; however, for TLJ I was able to get an early show without a problem, therefore, it is accurate that the sequel won't do as much as the first film in the trilogy. I predict 1.5 billion overall unless this film has legs due to a good word of mouth... who really knows...
     
    #59 Rogues1138, Oct 16, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2017
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  20. Julius Fett

    Julius Fett Force Sensitive

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    First long-range forecast is in, courtesy of pro.boxoffice.com: they are predicting an opening domestic weekend of $215 million - which would be the second largest of all-time, behind TFA - and a domestic lifetime cume of $742 million - which would be the third largest of all-time, just short of Avatar's $760 million.

    Applying the 2.14x multiplier of TFA to their TLJ domestic prediction results in roughly a $1.6 billion worldwide haul, putting it in fifth, just behind Jurassic World at $1.671 billion.

    Interesting stuff to see, I'm looking forward to seeing how this plays out! Don't think a 2.2x to 2.5x multiplier would be out of the question if the film's as good as many of us believe it will be.
     
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