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Box Office Thread

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi' started by Julius Fett, Sep 16, 2017.

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  1. Lukee1811

    Lukee1811 Force Sensitive

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    How is this not number 1 of all time? Jurrasic World ? Really?
     
    #61 Lukee1811, Oct 21, 2017
  2. Pomojema

    Pomojema Ayatollah Of Rock-&-Rolla
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    TFA was - domestically, not globally. Avatar holds the global record.
     
    #62 Pomojema, Oct 21, 2017
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  3. Julius Fett

    Julius Fett Force Sensitive

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    Forbes’ “pessimistic” predictions have;

    • Domestic opening: $174 million
    • Domestic total: $655 million
    • International total: $792 million
    • Worldwide total: $1.447 million

    This is based almost entirely on AOTC and TESB doing ~30% less than TPM and ANH in multiple facets of the box office, respectively.

    (For the record, Forbes’ “optimistic” prediction was by far the most accurate for TFA)
     
    #63 Julius Fett, Nov 18, 2017
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  4. FN-3263827

    FN-3263827 First Order CPS
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    the longer runtime will also cut into the net.
     
    #64 FN-3263827, Nov 18, 2017
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  5. Julius Fett

    Julius Fett Force Sensitive

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    Agreed, though I think it will be most notable in the opening numbers, as virtually every screening will be likely be full, similar to TFA, and so the few showings a day they would have had extra for TFA compared to TLJ could make a substantial difference.

    On the other hand, we’re still waiting for the number of theatres it will open in opening day/weekend, and I’m sure that the length of the film will have a lesser effect as the days go on (especially so in the case that the film’s great and has legs)!
     
    #65 Julius Fett, Nov 18, 2017
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  6. TheGreyandTheRed

    TheGreyandTheRed Rebel General

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    I don't see how TLJ doesn't top TFA at the box office. SW reputation is at a far greater height than it was before TFA and has since gained a new generation of fans as well as drawing a significant number of older fans back to the series.

    If the film is as good as what the rumours are leading us to believe, I think this could knock Avatar from the top spot. Other rumours have also hinted at 'different direction' and 'original' if these again are to be believed and the changes in direction are significant enough it could cause some controversy. And controversy generates publicity.

    The signs are good and It has all the ingredients to do so but I suppose only time will tell. Here's to hoping, I really want to see this get knocked clear out of the park.
     
    #66 TheGreyandTheRed, Nov 18, 2017
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  7. Boss Vos

    Boss Vos Rebel Official

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    I see it, and I'm sure it won't hit even 2 billion. And it will have little to nothing to do with the quality of the film itself.

    TFA was still a one-off, since it was the first sequel to the original trilogy since 1983. It had Han Solo, Chewbacca and the Millenium Falcon. I really don't think there's more hype for TLJ than it was for TFA - the hype for TFA was insane, and I don't feel that same amount of hype around me now.
     
    #67 Boss Vos, Nov 18, 2017
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  8. Julius Fett

    Julius Fett Force Sensitive

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    I don’t think it will break the $2 billion mark either, but that was a great hot take by @TheGreyandTheRed .

    I have to say, I greatly agree with a lot of your points, and I thought that TLJ had the most financial potential out of any Star Wars film in the near future straight after seeing TFA.

    And that’s almost entirely because of how the film ended. That ending begs you to see the next film and see how the story continues.

    The ending of TFA was designed to perfectly tease us and stir conversation for two years (in ways, I think the whole film did that) and it means that pretty much anyone who saw TFA will likely watch TLJ, even if they didn’t like it: the guarantee of seeing more Luke Skywalker, for instance, is as great a pull with this film as it could have been with TFA.

    I agree with you too, @Boss Vos , that the hype doesn’t seem to be quite there for this film yet, but with the press tour recently starting over on France and TV spots coming out almost twice a week, I think that we’re going to quickly reach saturation within the next week or so as more interviews and TV spots come out.

    I don’t think that @TheGreyandTheRed ’s idea about controversy, or perhaps even confusion on behalf of some of the audience, is too far off from what we’ll see, to be honest. I think that this film’s going to have a lot of depth to unravel, and so repeat viewings and word-of-mouth could be much more prominent with this film than it was with TFA.

    I’m not going to commit to a $2 billion+ worldwide total, as I think it’s going to be a while before we see the general audience come to a fever pitch like that again, but I could see it going as high as $1.8 billion, or even $1.9 billion, if things go how we expect them to with the film (i.e. very, very well).
     
    #68 Julius Fett, Nov 18, 2017
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  9. Boss Vos

    Boss Vos Rebel Official

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    I don't think originality or controversies are that helpful to any film that wants to hit huge box office numbers these days.

    Then again, Star Wars is not like most other franchises, since it's one of the oldest still running with a very dedicated fan base spanning several generations. It also relies heavily on nostalgia, especially when it comes to the soundtrack which is a focal selling point. Compared to other franchises these days who build up an audience with each sequel (the MCU being a great example), Star Wars is kind of the opposite: When both TPM and TFA came out the audience for Star Wars was at its peak viewership, respectively. After this the viewership can either stay the same or decrease, which holds true for previous films in the franchise.

    Of course I want TLJ to be both a commercial and critical success, as much as I want to enjoy the film myself. But if I have to be realistic, it's not going to hit $2 billion.

    Julius Fett gave some pretty good numbers, $1.8 billion sounds like a fair deal.
     
    #69 Boss Vos, Nov 18, 2017
  10. TheGreyandTheRed

    TheGreyandTheRed Rebel General

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    Great points made and I agree. I think the relative level of hype is a bit lower however we still have a month to go, there's time yet and there is also the distraction of the Justice League at the minute as well.

    I also agree with @Julius Fett In regards to TFA leaving us (as an audience) wanting more. TFA was effectively an appetiser designed to wow the new audience and pay fan service to the 'old guard'.

    IMO we will get the main course with TLJ. Its in this film where I believe the real story will be told, I'd even go as far to say that TFA could be seen as an 'extravagant prologue' (and I don't mean that in a diminutive way). TFA on its own merit is a great film but it did little more than set the scene and introduce us to the new cast.

    Another factor which will sadly play its part is the untimely and tragic passing of Carrie Fisher and I think I can say with some confidence that there's not a SW fan alive who will miss TLJ for this reason if no other.

    Like I said I'm optimistic it could top Avatar, if the critical and GA response on opening weekend is as good as rumours lead us to believe they could be then it has every chance.
     
    #70 TheGreyandTheRed, Nov 18, 2017
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  11. Boss Vos

    Boss Vos Rebel Official

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    True that TheGreyandTheRed, but one month to go is actually very soon. The hype for TFA at this time in 2015 was already incomparable.

    Avatar was a one-off as well, because of its high ticket prices and 3D hype. We're gonna have to wait one or two more decades until inflation catches up, and then maybe we'll experience another film making movie history when it tops Avatar's original 2009 box office. TFA had one of the best legs ever for a film, and it still couldn't top Avatar.
     
    #71 Boss Vos, Nov 18, 2017
  12. Bluemilk

    Bluemilk I AM the Senate

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    It will get mighty close to TFA. Just like some began their SW journeys with the prequels it begins with the ST. It's hyped more than you think.
     
    #72 Bluemilk, Nov 19, 2017
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  13. TheGreyandTheRed

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    On reflection of ticket prices for avatar I have to agree with you @Julius Fett. Maybe it won't take top spot but I'll stick my neck out and say it will top TFA.
     
    #73 TheGreyandTheRed, Nov 19, 2017
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  14. Jedi MD

    Jedi MD Jedi Commander

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    My conservative guess for opening weekend is going to be around 190 million( US). My more aggressive guess is 215 million.
     
    #74 Jedi MD, Nov 19, 2017
  15. Amalgam

    Amalgam Rebelscum

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    Predictions:

    Opening Weekend
    Domestic opening weekend: $180 million
    Worldwide opening weekend: $380 million

    Total
    Domestic total: $700 million
    International total: $720 billion
    Worldwide total: $1.42 billion
     
    #75 Amalgam, Nov 20, 2017
  16. LadyMusashi

    LadyMusashi Archwizard Woo-Woo-in-Chief
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    I think this is very accurate assessment. The hype for TFA was out of this world and while it left us on a cliffhanger, a darker, more complex sequel might not play as well for the general audience. 1.5 billion seems like a good number.
     
    #76 LadyMusashi, Nov 20, 2017
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  17. Darth Klaugott

    Darth Klaugott Rebelscum

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    Agreed. I would add however a 0.1b on the total worldwide just for the return of Luke Skywalker as one of the main protagonist of a SW movie ;)

    Here's then my prediction:

    Opening Weekend
    Domestic opening weekend: ~$200 million
    Worldwide opening weekend: ~$400 million

    Total
    Domestic total: ~$800 million
    International total: ~$800 billion
    Worldwide total: ~$1.6 billion

    From my outside-US (european) point of view I believe that the movie will do better in US than international in comparison with the main predictions from the analysts.
     
    #77 Darth Klaugott, Nov 20, 2017
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  18. Mudbone

    Mudbone Rebel General

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    I think I see a pattern with regard to these trilogies.

    1) Ep. 4 made more than Ep. 5, and Ep. 6 made more than Ep. 5 (but less than Ep. 4)
    2) Ep. 1 made more than Ep. 2, and Ep. 3 made more than Ep. 2 (but less than Ep. 1)

    Will it be the same with this trilogy- Ep. 7 making more than Ep. 8, and Ep. 9 making more than Ep. 8 (but less than Ep. 7)?

    The middle episode making less of each trilogy?
     
    #78 Mudbone, Nov 20, 2017
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  19. Boss Vos

    Boss Vos Rebel Official

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    Yeah, I think most Americans on this forum overestimate TLJ's chances abroad (no offense). As others have already pointed out, the film is undoubtedly going to do better in North America than other regions. My best friend who is a casual fan of the Star Wars films had no idea TLJ was coming out in December until I told him a couple of days ago. And he saw TFA without me telling him about it.

    The foreign opening weekend for TFA was roughly $280 million, and I'm doubtful TLJ will come close to this. If I'm going to be realistic, I'd guess the foreign opening weekend will end up in the ~$200 million range. Combined with a domestic opening of ~$220 million, the worldwide OW could come close to around $450 million - Which would still place it in the top 5.

    As for the domestic total there is a possibility that TLJ will top Avatar's $760 million total, however the chances of it beating TFA's total of $936 million are minimal. We have to remember that TLJ is not a one-off event like TFA was.

    My final prediction is a $750 million domestic total combined with a foreign $950 million total, for a worldwide total of:

    ~$1.7 billion
     
    #79 Boss Vos, Nov 20, 2017
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  20. Julius Fett

    Julius Fett Force Sensitive

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    Deadline are currently tracking The Last Jedi to have a $200 million+ domestic opening weekend. To give some context to this, only three films have broken the $200 million domestic opening weekend barrier before: 2012’s The Avengers ($207.4 million), 2015’s Jurassic World ($208.8 million) and 2015’s The Force Awakens ($248.0 million).

    They also included these interesting statistics, which gave cause to their optimism:

    “Unaided awareness – that part of movie polling which indicates how powerful a film property is among those who aren’t prodded to mention a pic’s title in a survey — is at 35 to Force Awakens’ 36. It’s a telling stat that tells studios how much non-fans are aware of a pic’s property, and depending on how a movie scores here, they’ll spend ad dollars specifically to make this quadrant grow. First choice is 23 for the Rian Johnson-directed sequel versus 22 for the previous J.J. Abrams title, while definite interest is 65 to 60. Total awareness is huge at 94 to Force Awakens‘ 92.”
     
    #80 Julius Fett, Nov 22, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2017
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