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Box Office

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker' started by Perdu, Dec 20, 2019.

  1. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Coramoor

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    Reviews matter. I don't want to rehash the TLJ, but that's an online phenomenon. I'm a hardcore fan who reads everything about Star Wars online. Many of my friends at work who are Star Wars fans don't know who Rian Johnson is and they're blissfully unaware of a debate online about it. That's why I only pay attention to controlled audience samples. It's the only clear picture of what people think. You think most people around the world know anything about a Snyder Cut for Justice League? Heck no, but if your reality is online it all over the place.

    When the reviews came in that's why Box Office Pro changed their projections. If reviews didn't matter they wouldn't do that.
     
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  2. Diego Lucas

    Diego Lucas Rebelscum

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  3. KyloRen1981

    KyloRen1981 Rebel Commander

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    And is that good? Bad? Neither? Apologies but I've never cared enough in the past to learn the context for SW box office numbers.
     
  4. Situation Normal

    Situation Normal Rebelscum

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    TLJ took $27M on its first Monday
     
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  5. Jayson

    Jayson Resident Lucasian

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    @Situation Normal pointed out TLJ; here's another bit of context.

    That Monday value for TLJ was a 79% drop from opening day for daily revenue.

    TFA's first monday was $40 million.
    This represented a 66% drop in revenue.

    TROS' Monday is a 67% drop from its opening day.

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
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  6. Bluemilk

    Bluemilk I AM the Senate

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    #46 Bluemilk, Dec 26, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2019
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  7. Jayson

    Jayson Resident Lucasian

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    The socioeconomic factors might be a factor in what's going on.

    We already know audiences have continued prioritizing theater use less in general; during stressful, busy, and economically tight moments, an already devalued event could be less attractive if it's known and dramatic - neither are good candidates for dopamine production in a stressful environment.

    One idea to test this thougjt might be to look at comedies and see if they see a marked improvement in proportional performance over dramatic movies. This isn't iron clad, but it would at least rule the possibility out if no correlation was found.

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
  8. Bluemilk

    Bluemilk I AM the Senate

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    What?
     
  9. Jayson

    Jayson Resident Lucasian

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    People care less about going to the movies in recent years.
    Crap has been stressful nationally.
    It's the most stressful time of year on top of it.
    Known things are less sensational as a default.
    Drama and intense suspense are not soothing.
    People might not be interested in a dramatically suspensful movie that doesn't have any new novelty in it during a really stressful time.
    A way to prove this isn't happening would be to show that comedies have the same sales patterns as dramas.

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
  10. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Coramoor

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    One good thing for TROS is there's less competition this time around. Cats being a disaster helps. The producers of that film were hoping it would be another Greatest Showman.
    Ticket sales have been falling since 2000. The explosion of affordable HD TV and content has created a viable alternative.
     
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  11. Jayson

    Jayson Resident Lucasian

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    Exactly.
    And an already lowered frequency might become even more so if there's a lot of stress going on and the film is stressful drama.

    If so, it might take hearing from others that it is emotionally pleasant to see good frequency.

    Cheers,
    Jaysom
     
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  12. LadyMusashi

    LadyMusashi Archwizard Woo-Woo-in-Chief
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    I think it will have great legs domestically. Internationally, I am not so sure.

    Bear in mind this is just empirical and based on my minuscule country. The best seats for both TFA and TLJ were sold out for at least two weeks. On Thursday night, after finishing the movie, I walked out and bought another excellent ticket for the weekend. The crowds are much smaller and there are less screens.

    With TFA and TLJ, domestic and international BO were pretty much on par, with slight lead on the international side. We'll see how it goes by the time February rolls around.

    Either way, Disney will not share that cash with us, so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
     
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  13. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    I love the atmosphere of the theater. I don't think any home theater can truly recreate it. Crowds do not bother me either. But even I am starting to join those who would rather see most movies at home than at the theater. Still nothing like an opening night crowd for a Star Wars or Marvel movie. Hearing others laugh and cheer really adds to my enjoyment. But I am starting to skip the theater for other releases. My 65" 4K UHD and Dolby surround is good enough for everything else. I'll probably go see TRoS a few more times, but only because I really love it and can't wait for the blu-ray. If a theater lover like me is going less though, I can imagine everyone else definitely is.
     
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  14. Bluemilk

    Bluemilk I AM the Senate

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  15. Jayson

    Jayson Resident Lucasian

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    Legs continue to climb, but that December 25th was pretty impressive; +59% on Christmas day.

    Curious to see how this thing is going to do going into the weekend. :)

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
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  16. Jayson

    Jayson Resident Lucasian

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    Some updates...the yellow/brown band is the +/- 5% error range.

    tros domestic.png tros rolling 7 day.png tros international.png

    Because international records are a bit sporadic on their postings, I'll just be grabbing them periodically.

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
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  17. Jayson

    Jayson Resident Lucasian

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    Looking things over, I'm going to throw out a forecast of around 1.2 Billion for the final.
    If the legs keep climbing, that could change, but I don't expect to pass 1.3 Billion and reach 1.4 Billion, and the lowest I would predict would be around 1.16 Billion.

    Here's today's updates.
    Note: I added an International Tracking Projection while also preserving the original projection.
    The way that the original International Projection was made was (Domestic Projection for the given Day / (Domestic Total / International Total)) + Domestic Projection for the given day.

    That is to say.
    Given the ratio relationship between International and Domestic sales total, what would be the amount of International Sales of a given day with a given Domestic Sales if every day had the same ratio relationship between Domestic and International sales as the total does? Given that value derived for the International Sales of a given day, how much do we get total for that given day if we add that International Sales amount for the given day onto the Domestic Sales of a given day?

    "International Projection" means "Worldwide" - I might change that naming convention later to avoid confusion, as "International" usually means "Everywhere not Domestic", and I mean that when I write, "International", but not when I write, "International Projection"...which is a tad confusing I think.

    The International Tracking Projection is the same thing, but I take the latest results instead of opening weekend for the "Domestic / International" part of the equation.
    So originally, there was around a 1.1 factor difference, whereas currently there's a 0.9 factor difference.

    Anyway, here's the graphs.
    tros domestic.png

    tros rolling 7 day.png

    tros international.png

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
    #57 Jayson, Dec 30, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2019
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  18. Darth Goon

    Darth Goon Clone Commander

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    Unless you are a Disney shareholder
     
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  19. Jayson

    Jayson Resident Lucasian

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    It's a cantina tradition to track the box office of each film.
    Aside from that, my day job is data analytics, so of course I'm going to enjoy doing that for Star Wars. :p

    If it's not interesting for you, cool.
    giphy.gif
    :p

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
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  20. Darth Goon

    Darth Goon Clone Commander

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    No it's interesting to me! The post was in response to LadyMushashi stating Disney would not be sharing the cash with anybody, but I messed it up somehow
     
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