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Box Office

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker' started by Perdu, Dec 20, 2019.

  1. Jayson

    Jayson Force Sensitive

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    That's not weird.
    TLJ was one of the films which prompted RT to change its review policy, but they said they weren't going to retroactively correct the impacted ratings.

    Aside from that, scroll back to page 6 and you'll see that RT has terrible data weight curation, which leads to this kind of problem - because they use one method for critics and an entirely different method for users making reviews, neither are properly weighted. They also have a terrible critics selection process which allows for places like Forbes to spam with multiple review ratings - unlike Metacritic which singularizes a voice.

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
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  2. Jedi MD

    Jedi MD Jedi Commander

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    Assuming that on average a SW movie probably costs 275 million to make, I would suspect Disney is very happy with TROS eclipsing 1 Billion. I’m sure they will be happy from here on out if each new SW movie makes 1 billion
     
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  3. Jayson

    Jayson Force Sensitive

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    Most likely, though, to be honest...

    If I was involved, I'd be suggesting doing a 12-part serial film series which run on 80 million each, by going back to the Republuc Serials of the 30's and 40's and working out how to revive that original ancestor back with 1.5 hour low-budget films - but still keep production quality up to any normal 80 million film today (e.g. Jumanji 1).

    It would be fun to see, and fun for filmmakers to work in that trapping and learning that history through emulation.

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
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  4. KyloRen1981

    KyloRen1981 Rebelscum

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    I watched that HelloGreedo video and I have to say he leaves one extremely important variable out of his equation. He talks about how critics want things that are innovative or original while, apparently, people who liked TROS just wanted something that aligned with their "religion." He's close a very valid point here which is that, yes, critics who watch movies all the time eventually develop a bias towards that which is different and of a certain quality. I think that happens in every critical arena (books, wine, music, games, etc.) And I think it is also true that general audiences long for what I would call "fresh familiarity," even though they constantly claim to want brand new things and ideas.

    However, the bit that I think HG left out is that the movies in question aren't just like any other movie. This is Star Wars. This is one of the most valuable intellectual properties ever created. This is a series of stories that stretches back over 40 years! This is a fiction that some people have grown up alongside their entire life. You can't just wave away those factors as if they are trivial; they very much matter to how someone will experience any one work in the larger franchise. This is why when people try to silence criticisms by saying "your expectations were too _____," I would counter that by pointing out expectations are exactly what Disney/LFL are leveraging in order to turn a profit! If there were no expectations that Star Wars would deliver a certain type of experience, the IP wouldn't have value. And the more specific and unique the experience, the higher the value.

    I think I'm preaching to the choir around these parts, which is fine. But I think a lot of the anger and frustration that came out after TLJ could be reframed as a baffling lack of understanding expectations -- regardless of the execution of a particular script. Because, don't get me wrong, big surprises are definitely part of the Star Wars DNA. Big surprises are definitely one of the things that audiences did expect out of these new films. It's the specific choice, style, type, and execution of those surprises that felt .... disconnected... from expectation. And then TROS had to try and reconnect the disconnects... which results in a new series of disconnects from the TLJ connections....!! *whew*

    .... Probably none of that made sense, but, I tried. It's late, I am getting over the flu, and it's difficult to clearly express such nuanced thoughts in just text. =P
     
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  5. Jayson

    Jayson Force Sensitive

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    Made perfect sense to me.

    Two things:

    1:
    Upset expectations has been part of Star Wars since ESB. Two quotes I love from Hamill are (I'm paraphrasing from memory):
    1) "I'm glad the internet didn't exist when we made Empire. You had to really put effort into writing an angry letter."

    2) "People complaining about a Star Wars film? Imagine that!"

    2:
    This opinion of mine might possibly spark some rebuttle. I really don't mean to be dismissive or rude. I further fully understand that this statement is a hefty generalization and demography of art appreciation gets rather nuanced. The value in this is anecdotal.

    It seems like a lot (not all) of the voices I've seen which are not appreciating the current saga films have been EU favoring voices, and the Star Wars that is being expected from that reference frame is vastly different in style and focus than what the last three saga films have been.

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
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  6. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    This isn’t always true for everyone, but for the most part, critics evaluate how well a movie is made while general audiences tell you if they liked it or not. Those two often align, but sometimes a flawed movie can be very enjoyable while a very well made movie can sometime not be very entertaining.

    I count many poorly reviewed and/or box office bombs among some of my all time favorites, while there’ve been some with great reviews and/or huge hits that just weren’t for me.

    I find myself agreeing with critics more often than audiences when there’s a discrepancy, but there’s always exceptions.
     
    #146 Rodney-2187, Jan 18, 2020
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  7. Jayson

    Jayson Force Sensitive

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    I rarely ever agree with critics. Even when they like something I do.

    They rarely talk about filmmaking in any manner that makes sense to the craft of filmmaking, nor do they make sense to the act of watching a movie.

    They seem far more wrapped up in the art of critique of film than the art of film itself, or the enjoyment of film.

    Most of the time they are simply story critics, not even really discussing anything regarding the filmmaking.

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
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  8. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi General

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    I'd assume TROS cost $400-500 depending on marketing costs. Disney gets 60% of the ticket revenue. So it had to make a billion to make a comfortable profit.
     
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  9. Jedi MD

    Jedi MD Jedi Commander

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    That seems awful high. TFA cost 245 million to make. I would think TROS was in the ballpark of that. Marketing costs of 200 million seems high to me bit then again I have no idea what movie companies spend on marketing
     
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  10. Jayson

    Jayson Force Sensitive

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    Typical "guesstimate" is 1.5 to 2 times the budget.
    One exception was Solo. It had almost no marketing and paid for it dearly. It was a bad idea to try to save money on a run away budget by cutting marketing.

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
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  11. Darth Chewie

    Darth Chewie Rebel General

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    Bingo! EU fans do seem to be the most vocal of the ST haters. Funny part is, even Lucas did not consider the EU to be Canon, and his ST story, for the most part, was what we got with Luke and Rey in TLJ. Yet those EU fans dismiss this, and go straight back to their expectations and how they were not met. People also forget that Lucas's talent for story telling was at its best during the OT when he collaborated with screen writers and other directors. When he tried to take on all the roles alone in the PT, we got the 'expected' story, but the quality of the screen play, dialogue, and acting was well below that of the OT. The fact that JJ & Rian collaborated with others to get the best story told as possible, despite the overall lack of planning for key elements of the story (ex...Palpy's return), we ended up with a ST that overall was a better made trilogy then the prequels.
     
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  12. Jayson

    Jayson Force Sensitive

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    For what it's worth, I sympathize.
    I know what it's like to love a form and style and see that form and style disowned and a different one used officially that you just don't enjoy the form and style of at all.

    This is me with Star Trek and Stargate.
    I love Star Trek originals, and the Next Gen. Then everything started going off the rails after that, and now it's an alien to me. But a huge amount of people love it. It's just not Star Trek to me.

    Stargate; same thing. Loved the film. I cannot find what the film was in style and form in the show. Absolutely no interest in the show. Such a lost opportunity in my opinion to make a great Indiana Jones/Star Wars mash up trilogy. But holy cow, a massive number of peple are absolutely fanatic over the shows.

    So I don't hold it against anyone.
    I'm just glad I'm not on that side of the experience for once.

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
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  13. Rogues1138

    Rogues1138 Jedi General

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    Good word of mouth does help films along its theatrical run... welcome to Movie Math!



    Once TROS hit a billion dollars, all the negative talk just shut down and went away... KK won't get fired but will walkway when ready.

    Word of mouth is pretty strong...



    The death of Star Wars is fake news...
     
    #153 Rogues1138, Jan 19, 2020
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  14. p03

    p03 Force Sensitive

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    Read on twitter somewhere that the trilogy made 5.9 billion am taking that as a positive. (Although am not sure if Rogue One and Solo were involved in these numbers, but I don't think so).
     
    #154 p03, Jan 19, 2020
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  15. Too Gon Onbourbon

    Too Gon Onbourbon Rebel Commander

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    That would to be all told. The Force Awakens made just over 2 billion, Last Jedi was 1.3 and Rise of Skywalker is at 1 now.
    So 4.5 on the high side.

    Then Rogue One was just over 1 and Solo was like 450 million.

    Awesome though.
     
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  16. Jayson

    Jayson Force Sensitive

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    Updates from the weekend.
    Domestic may be winding down, but international still seems to have more to say.
    After this week is when TLJ started dipping lower than 1 million per day. About a week after that is when TFA started doing the same. We'll see where TROS lands in this regards. Will it bee a week earlier than TLJ, or line up with one of the two...or possibly still trickle in longer? We'll see!

    tros domestic.png

    tros rolling 7 day.png

    tros global.png

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
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  17. Snazel

    Snazel Force Sensitive

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    Are these weighting algorithms/formulas known? As a data dude in RL, I'd be curious to see how they are aggregated and calculated.

    I think one of the key points within this though is angry fans are going to do the dreaded "half star" review. Seriously what percentage of films truly deserve a half-star? Given the technical, musical, cinematic excellent of ALL SW films shouldn't they deserve at least a full star or two on this achievement alone? The half-star review is cynical, warped and inaccurate by almost all objective measure. If the half-star review is weighted somehow, that explains a lot.

    Great commentary all around on HG's video, thank you all for sharing them.

    I think most of us agree that even if we don't agree with HG, there's an intelligence to his content, it's not sensational, self-servicing or desperate for more clicks and likes like other youtube bloggers are (*cough* Zeroh *cough*). He's also succinct, there's no way I'm watching a 2-hour review of a 2-hour film. If brevity is the soul of wit, then many Star Wars youtubers are not funny at all. :)
     
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  18. Jayson

    Jayson Force Sensitive

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    I don't know their algorithms and formulas. Most businesses don't publish that information, unlike demographic studies.

    That's why I did it the way that I did it - because you can obfuscate your method all you want, but if I take a large number of samples from your system's output of data polling and find a lack of a standard Gaussian bell curve, then whatever method you are using is flawed and out of step from demography standards (as you, as a fellow analyst, are familiar with :) ).

    Also - HELLO FELLOW ANALYST!!! (I don't meet very many)
    [​IMG]

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
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  19. Shadowblade

    Shadowblade Clone Commander

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    It seems TROS is about to get a slightly better mutiplier then TLJ now domestically, don’t know how it is internationally. Maybe it’s word of mouth is better. Should inch closer towards 1.1 bill ww then 1 bill. 1.065 bill as the end ww box office maybe?
     
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  20. Too Gon Onbourbon

    Too Gon Onbourbon Rebel Commander

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    It took five more days to hit 500 million domestic than Rogue One. Last Jedi was more like 19 or 20 days ahead hitting the mark and Rise of Skywalker will be lucky to finish within a 100 million of it and the opening advantage was about 50 million so whatever better multiplier it has can't be too terribly meaningful.

    Celebrate the success but I'm not seeing the space for much if any salt throwing.
     
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