Can The Force Awakens take down Avatar

Avatar will be left in the dust, a distant memory of faded glory whose box office take will eventually be fourth down the list of the highest-grossing movies of all time.

But seriously, I think the folks at Disney recognize this already. The Avatar-themed section to Animal Kingdom in Disney World keeps taking longer than expected and I wonder how big it will ultimately be. Now that they own the ultimate super weapon known as the Star Wars franchise, that will be on the back burner.

 

I think it has a really shot at doing so. I think people are willing to go to the movies a genuinely good movie. Just look at the Jurassic World box office performance. And I think we all know this movie has multiple generations of hype compared to that of Jurassic World.

Here is the what Avatar did early on;

Opening Day: $26.75 mil
Opening Weekend: $77 mil
2nd Weekend: $75 mil
3rd Weekend: $68.5 mil
4th Weekend: $50.3 mil
5th Weekend: $34.9 mil
6th Weekend: $31.2 mil
7th Weekend: $22.8 mil
8th Weekend: $23.6 mil

It was the number 1 movie for 6 weeks, then #2, then #4. By its 8 Weekend, it was making the kind of numbers most movies can only hope for in opening weekends during the months of January and February.

I think star wars will be a lot more front loaded, but its replay value and word of mouth should spread like wildfire and I can see this movie staying on top for a couple months.

 

This film will kill at the box office, no doubt.

But Avatar was unique. It pretty much spread all around everyone.

Look at the elements.

James Cameron - the director of Titanic the highest grosser at the time, and a Sci-Fi legend.

3D - The gimmick that everyone just HAD to see

Story - A very simple story of save the forest/natives that everyone can connect with and will want to watch

Trailer - Really well made trailer that again sold the whole idea of the movie.

And all combined for it to be the film that EVERYONE had to watch. Granted, the film was not great but it's a very easy film to sit through and it's very rewatchable.


This Star Wars film I don't think has that all-seeking reach that Avatar has. But Star Wars is popular and if the film is good it will make LOADS of money, but man....Avatar was just a behemoth on a whole other level.

 

Yeah and that is where my trepidation with Abrams comes in.

Because what kept Avatar at the top for so long is even if the story has been done a million times before, Cameron is an EXCELLENT filmmaker, so he just made it in a way in which it seemed unique with his imagery and it kept people coming back.

I can put money down on Cameron making a film EVERYONE can enjoy whereas I can't for Abrams, as I have not really enjoyed any of his films. They have been good but not one of his films have I watched more than once.

 

Well, Collider reports that it is tracking to open to $225 million and it will have no competition on IMAX screens for a month.
http://collider.com/star-wars-7-force-awakens-box-office-predictions

But, man.. Avatar's worldwide of $2787965087, according to box-office mojo, is quite a big number...

I'm on the "there is a slim chance" mindset... Provided that the movie is great, and we all want go back and back again...
The Phantom Menace made $1027044677 worldwide...

Jurassic World did great, but it's $1666061061 is not that close to Avatar's numbers...

 

Just to piggy back off this, here are the box office numbers for J.J. Abrams directed movies;

Mission Impossible 3:
Worldwide: $397,850,012
Domestic: $134,029,801
Opening Weekend: $47,743,273

Star Trek:
Worldwide: $385,680,446
Domestic: $257,730,019
Opening Weekend: $75,204,289

Super 8:
Worldwide: $260,095,986
Domestic: $127,004,179
Opening Weekend: $35,451,168

Star Trek Into Darkness:
Worldwide: $467,381,584
Domestic: $228,778,661
Opening Weekend: $70,165,559

 

I think it will beat Avatar, but not by a mile. I think there are many fans like myself who would buy multiple tickets for Star Wars if for no other reason then for Star Wars to be the biggest movie ever above Dances with Wolves in space...I mean Avatar!

 

You are correct, it is not quite there. However, I think this year has shown that movie goers are more than happy to venture to the Theater to see a good movie. Jurassic World, Avengers, Furious 7, and Minions all eclipsed $1 billion worldwide. I think its a good sign for something as immensely popular and anticipated as Star Wars.

 

the main reason why people went to see avatar is because its a james cameron film. but i think ppl want to see stories that are about something other than aliens inside people or people inside aliens. people know what avatar was in 2009 and cgi in SW7 is better in everyway possible.
so obviously the non hardcore fans will generate an opening weekend that might be weaker than avatar but the hardcore fans will absolutely create bigger numbers for an opening weekend 100 % sure

 

That is key. If the movie is really good and word of mouth is good...then it has a good chance. IF the word of mouth is there.

 

I say it can, but if you had an option like "Yes, it might" then I'd choose that in stead of "Yes, by a mile"

 

While I hope TFA blows past Avatar, I'm hoping more that the movie blows away my expectations.

 

From Collider:

Although we’re still about five weeks out from the latest Star Wars movie, one of our sources has clued us into the film’s tracking numbers, and they’re impressive to say the least. The movie is currently tracking to open to $225 million, which would put it well ahead of the $208 million Jurassic World made when it opened earlier this year and broke The Avengers’ opening weekend record of $207 million.

However, this $225 million is a modest prediction. Keep in mind that unlike Jurassic World or the previous opening weekend record holder, The Avengers, The Force Awakens is basically playing non-stop from the time it opens on Thursday night through Monday morning. It has the most screens and the most showtimes. If people want to see it at 4:00am on Friday, they can; they couldn’t do that with Avengers or Jurassic World. Also, as we previously reported, The Force Awakens will have no competition on IMAX screens for a month.

Keep in mind that tracking numbers change over time, and it’s possible that $225 million might be out of the realm of possibility. Star Wars has never braved a holiday season before, and no December movie has ever grossed over $100 million on opening weekend, let alone the over $200 million The Force Awakens would need to take the record. People are busy traveling, they have hectic schedules, and some might want to wait out a chaotic weekend and see Star Wars later. It would still make a lot of money, but it would be spread out over time.

http://collider.com/star-wars-7-force-awakens-box-office-predictions/

 

I haven't seen Avatar

 

To beat Avatar its got to get positive reviews and generally liked by the fans. All of my diehard friends/family will see it, even multiple times, but its my casual fan friends that will be swayed by reviews.

For example, I have 1 friend who saw TPM and never bothered with AOTC & ROTS. I think he'll see TFA if it gets positive reviews and it starts to become a must see movie for non-SW fans.

 

Most of you guys are pretty young so you may not realize it, but Star Wars is creating a buzz among us old folks that I haven't heard in a long, long time. I really think it's going to blow everything out of the water, by a long shot, because it's tapping into the tail end of the baby boomer generation in a way that Avatar did not. And that is a lot of people (that's why they call it the Baby Boom).

At the same time, though, it's capturing the younger audience, too. I guess I'm assuming that the film itself is going to be stunning, and I see no reason to assume anything else, from the rumors we've heard.

For a lot of reasons, older people are not really big movie-goers, which is why the blockbusters all tend to skew toward a younger audience. Star Wars, though, will bring them back for the sheer nostalgia factor. Luke, Leia and Han will be a huge draw. It really is unique in this way. Entire families will probably be going to Star Wars in greater numbers than almost any movie I can think of.

It took me a long time to get around to seeing Avatar, and most of my friends never did. That will not be true of Star Wars, guaranteed. It's rapidly shifting from being just a movie, to being a cultural event.

 

I think that this would definitely have a much better chance of beating Avatar it were released in the Summer months, but it still has a decent shot during December. Time will tell. I would love to see it dethrone Avatar if for no other reason than the fact that I see Avatar as just an "alright" film. Seriously, Avatar has hardly any pop culture presence these days, and that's because it wasn't that good, it wasn't bad either, but definitely not that good. I of course saw it in theaters when it came out, but that's the only time I had any desire to see it. It works as a big time spectacle film, but the story and characterization were just to thin to keep most moviegoers coming back for more once it left theaters. James Cameron has made a number of films that were much better than Avatar.

I think that even if TFA doesn't beat it though, it will be dethroned in the next few years. If you look at the list of the top grossing films of all time, 4 out of the top 10 are from this year.

1 2009 Avatar $760,507,625 $2,023,411,357 $2,783,918,982
2 1997 Titanic $658,672,302 $1,548,943,366 $2,207,615,668
3 2015 Jurassic World $652,071,495 $1,016,713,244 $1,668,784,739
4 2012 The Avengers $623,279,547 $896,200,000 $1,519,479,547
5 2015 Furious 7 $351,032,910 $1,165,213,799 $1,516,246,709
6 2015 The Avengers: Age of Ultron $459,005,868 $945,700,000 $1,404,705,868
7 2011 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II $381,011,219 $960,500,000 $1,341,511,219
8 2013 Frozen $400,738,009 $873,496,971 $1,274,234,980
9 2013 Iron Man 3 $408,992,272 $806,400,000 $1,215,392,272
10 2015 Minions $335,267,580 $825,868,529 $1,161,136,109

 

Adjusted for Inflation The Phantom Menace made about $1.6 billion worlwide without IMAX, 3D, without the original characters and with mixed reviews. The Force Awakens will easily gross more than $2 billion if it's really good it will beat Avatar

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 11, 2015, Original Post Date: Nov 11, 2015 ---

One of the reasons both Avatar and Titanic made a lot of moeny was because they were released in December when there is no competition. Adjusted for Inflation Star Wars A New Hope made over $2 billion worldwide without IMAX or 3D. I think TFA has a chance to beat Avatar