1. Notification emails are working properly again. Please check your email spam folder and if you see any emails from the Cantina there, make sure to mark them as "Not Spam". This will help a lot to whitelist the emails and to stop them going to spam.
    Dismiss Notice
  2. IMPORTANT! To be able to create new threads and rate posts, you need to have at least 30 posts in The Cantina.
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Before posting a new thread, check the list with similar threads that will appear when you start typing the thread's title.
    Dismiss Notice

Editorial: What Does Avatar 2s Delay Mean for Star Wars?

Discussion in 'SWNN News Feed' started by SWNN Probe, May 15, 2017.

  1. SWNN Probe

    SWNN Probe Seeker

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2016
    Posts:
    2,919
    Likes Received:
    6,804
    Trophy Points:
    3,842
    Credits:
    7,392
    Ratings:
    +10,719 / 19 / -12
    [​IMG]

    For a time after James Cameron announced that he was finally ready to start filming his four Avatar sequels, it seemed as though there was an unspoken guarantee between The Walt Disney Company and Twentieth Century Fox to let each other take turns conquering the December box office with massive sci-fi releases. But since the announcement that Avatar 2 would be getting delayed yet again, it's safe to say that the internet is calling that plan into question. Here's what the film's delay will mean for Star Wars and Disney's interest in the Avatar franchise as a whole.







    The Avatar Franchise Explained



    Once upon a time, there was a filmmaker named James Cameron. This man liked to make movies and he was very good at making lots of money, so all but one of the movies that he directed were box office successes, and more importantly, they were all good to varying degrees. Two of his films, however, came in danger of putting Twentieth Century Fox in financial jeopardy - the first being Titanic, which shocked the world by having some of the best legs on any blockbuster ever in spite of being the first movie with a budget of $200M. Over a decade later, the second movie - which relied heavily on the dormant 3-D format - was finally made. Like its predecessor, Avatar blew everyone's financial expectations away when the film made over $2.7B in its global run, making it the highest-grossing film of all time when not accounting for inflation. Unlike TitanicAvatar had franchise potential that was waiting to be tapped into, and Fox knew that they weren't going to let that opportunity pass.



    [​IMG]



    Avatar has a weird position in popular culture, though. In spite of being one of the most successful films of all time, the movie has largely been forgotten in the years following its release. Titanic left a huge impact on popular culture by becoming the highest-grossing movie at the time, kickstarting Leonardo DiCaprio's career, and being tied to a Celine Dion song that played at literally every wedding for at least half a decade. Not so much with Avatar - the last time popular culture actually acknowledged that the movie exists was about a year or two after its release, and these days you'd be hard-pressed to find any Na'vi cosplay at any of the major comic conventions or anything resembling an Avatar fandom that isn't already ingrained within Cameron's existing fanbase (who usually prefer to gush over Aliens and Terminator 2: Judgment Day instead).



    And, quite honestly, that's a shame, considering the effort that was put into creating such a lush world and an extensively-detailed setting (even if that same effort wasn't put into that movie's fairly derivative story). But again, it's worth noting that Avatar made Maclunkey close to $3B in a single go. That's no small feat no matter how you look at it, and a studio would have to be insane not to greenlight another one, especially with something that had such an extensive amount of room to grow as a franchise. Given that Cameron has such a successful track record at Fox, and is one of the few science-fiction visionaries that chooses to repeatedly work with the studio, they were going to let him do what he Maclunkey well pleased - and that plan involved three sequels, all of which they greenlit faster than you can say 'cash cow.'





    The Avatar Sequels



    At some point along the way, the planned release windows for the movies kept getting pushed back as three sequels became four - as development on the scripts progressed, Cameron and the other writers decided that they had too much material for an entire trilogy, and that it would be better to bump up the total length of the franchise by another installment instead of making incredibly long movies. Fox wasn't going to complain about the cost this would add to the budget because they were working with James Cameron, the guy that could have bankrupted their studio twice but instead gave them a pair of movies that grossed $2B+ each, and as The Hobbit showed, stretching your movie out with an extra installment can lead to extra revenue. While the jury's still out on these movies could actually put Fox in jeopardy, there's no denying that Cameron is a master at getting butts into seats - even if it's taken him an absurdly long time to work on a follow-up to his biggest movie ever. Back at 2016's CinemaCon, Cameron officially announced that he and Fox were targeting four release windows for the Avatar sequels (which would comprise a single, massive production) - the Decembers of 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023 would all have their own Avatar movie, which would link up quite nicely with what appears to be Disney's annual plan for Star Wars sequels and spin-offs... Until Avatar 2 got delayed for the umpteenth time by Cameron's own admission. Shocking.



    [​IMG]



    The current schedule, if Eywa be willing, is that the movies will all hit in the Decembers of 2020, 2021, 2024, and 2025. Why should we entertain the possibility that the Avatar sequels are finally in development (for real this time)? For starters, Cameron admitted that writing movies was always the biggest pain in the ass for him as a director, and has suggested that the reason for one of the delays had to do with the fact that they determined that they'd need a fourth sequel to wrap everything up. Recently, they've gone into casting supporting characters for the next movie as well, which is something they've never done up until this point (at least not beyond saying that most of the key players in the original would be appearing again). Fox probably doesn't want to wait all that much longer, either, as it seems as if it'll take more than late-2000s nostalgia for the original to make sure that these movies do well.





    Why Avatar Matters To Disney



    Cameron's latest delay in the long saga of promising that we'll get more Avatar eventually has a lot to do with his own perfectionistic tendencies as a director, but it looks like we'll be getting it and some other movies next decade. Still, for a time it seemed like there was a real possibility that Avatar 2 and Star Wars Episode IX would both arrive in 2019, which would have led to a white-hot December. What would a match-up of two substantial sci-fi properties have looked like, you might ask? Well...



    [​IMG]



    Let's just say that it wouldn't end well, and not just for Avatar. While Star Wars would easily be the winner in this situation by means of having a much more active fanbase, the presence of two big-budget sci-fi movies competing with each other in the same release window means that business on both films would inevitably suffer than they would have if they had been released separately. Having two franchise movies of the same genre release so close to one another can prove to be disastrous, as seen with last year's superhero underperformer X-Men: Apocalypse and outright bomb Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out Of The Shadows being released a week apart from one another. Conversely, Warner Brothers played it smart by bringing Batman V. Superman: Dawn Of Justice's release date ahead by six weeks instead of having the movie open on the same day that Captain America: Civil War did - even if the former did underperform overall, it made upwards of $300M domestically and outdid its immediate predecessor, which is something that neither XMA or TMNTOOTS were remotely close to accomplishing (since neither release managed to make $200M stateside, even though XMA's predecessor did and TMNTOOTS's predecessor came pretty close to it in the much less favorable release window of August).



    While Disney would want Star Wars to come out on top over Avatar if the two were released in similar frames - which they won't, as it's good for the franchise to have breathing room - it would still be in their best interest for Avatar to do well. After all, they've just invested a ton of resources in a theme park expansion that's going to open later this month, and if people see the new movies, then that translates to greater park attendance which then translates to more money for Disney... Even if it takes three whole years for park attendance to spike in conjunction with the release of a new Avatar movie. Beyond this, if Avatar and sci-fi franchises like it continue to do well in regions that have been tough for Star Wars to crack in the past two years (looking at you, China), then this can be crucial for Disney's plans to expand their already massive brand.





    Scheduling Star Wars (And Avatar, Too)



    [​IMG]



    Episode IX has been confirmed to be a May 2019 release, though there's still technically room for the movie to be a December 2019 release - neither of which will be affecting Avatar at the current rate. As it stands, it looks like the only potential conflict of scheduling between Avatar and Star Wars is the 2020 movie that's been planned, but not dated, and it currently looks like that might be a non-issue if Disney is really committed to moving the franchise back to a late-May window. 2018 losing an Avatar movie seemingly gave Lucasfilm another opportunity - Han Solo has been scheduled for a May 2018 release window, but it could move to December should Disney choose. Many have wondered: could Han Solo get a delay to take advantage of the spot that Avatar vacated?



    ...Probably not. For starters, there's the presence of Disney's Mary Poppins Returns, which is looking to arrive on Christmas Day. Obviously, a Mary Poppins movie isn't going to make Star Wars money, or even Jungle Book money for that matter, but it's a Disney movie all the same and they're going to make sure that they make as much money as possible off of it. Releasing a movie like Star Wars would definitely overshadow that and would cut into the film's profits (case in point: The BFG being one of Disney's biggest flops in recent years after coming off of the heels of Finding Dory). As far as mid-December blockbuster movies go, it appears as though Aquaman is going to fill the void that Avatar 2 left (an interesting decision, given that Jason Momoa's take on the superhero is rumored to be the breakout character of Justice League, which comes out a little over a year prior). Not to mention that another Lord & Miller movie, the currently-untitled Miles Morales: Ultimate Spider-Man animated film that they wrote and are producing, will be released in that same window. Disney might be shrewd as a business, but I think that they have more tact than to do something to screw over two people that are already on their payroll over a movie that they're also passionate about.



    A December release is inherently a double-edged sword, as seen with both The Force Awakens and Rogue One - there's room for huge profits when a picture opens, but a lot of your audience disappears once they have to go back to work and school. I honestly don't think that Han Solo is going to make $1B (not that it needs to in order to be successful), and I suspect that the people running Disney don't think so either, so there's no sense in trying to release the movie in December when there's going to inevitably be a huge drop-off at the beginning of January. Especially when a competing blockbuster - the thing that the December release dates for the past three Star Wars movies were designed to avoid - and an animated movie appealing to the same audiences that Star Wars attracts are already there in the first place. Summer is a safe place for this kind of a movie; even if it's crowded in terms of high-profile releases, attendance will be high enough for the entire season that competition won't really hurt it, just in the same way that the Beauty and the Beast remake didn't have to worry about losing business to Logan and Kong: Skull Island in spite of the fact that both of those movies were hits. More importantly, it ensures that Disney's two biggest tentpoles of the year will dominate the entire month of May and a good portion of June, which together form a substantial portion of annual box office profits.



    [​IMG]



    But aside from those existing factors that make such a massive, seven month push-back unlikely, the biggest indicator that there will be no delay is that we never had any official word that a December release date was even being considered for the Han Solo movie. Bob Iger outright stated that the movie was always planned for a May 2018 release window as far back as March 2016. Filming's already underway with a script that's been complete for some time, unlike Rian Johnson's post-TFA rewrites that pushed production up a month and the release date up by seven months (and those were entirely dependent on the changes Johnson had to make in conjunction with changes that were made to the final version of the script to The Force Awakens).



    So that just leaves us with room to speculate about future Star Wars movies and how they'll come out in relation to the planned Avatar sequels. Right now, we're still operating on the impression that there will be one Star Wars movie a year for a while, though it's possible that they could take a break if they really want to build up hype for an additional trilogy. However, in the event that a future Star Wars movie ends up being scheduled for a window close to what Fox has planned for Avatar, one should expect the Fox franchise to be the one that budges. To make a long story short: Star Wars shouldn't have to worry about Avatar so long as Lucasfilm sticks to Summer releases, which is looking to be the norm after this December. Avatar, in spite of being the highest-grossing movie of all time, has a lot to prove as an actual franchise, but since Disney has a vested interest in the property, so it's incredibly unlikely that there will be a scenario in which these franchises have to compete against one another.



    Are you looking forward to the Avatar sequels? Do you think James Cameron took too much time to make a follow-up to his movie? Let us know in the comments section below.





    Click HERE to check out and comment on this topic on our main site
     
    #1 SWNN Probe, May 15, 2017
    Last edited: May 26, 2017
    • Like Like x 2
    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. sbs87

    sbs87 Lord of The Dark Arts

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2014
    Posts:
    2,218
    Likes Received:
    3,909
    Trophy Points:
    11,092
    Credits:
    8,852
    Ratings:
    +5,854 / 84 / -53
    This article is on the main page and you can comment on it. Did we really need a thread for it too? It could be 1/4th this length. Also using terms like "safe to say" not only aren't accurate but make some things that are pure opinion seem like fact. I like SW more than Avatar just like most guys here but there is a lot of wordy-ness dancing around that some of this is just speculation.
     
    #2 sbs87, May 15, 2017
    Last edited: May 15, 2017
    • Like Like x 1
    • Wise Wise x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
    • Trolling Trolling x 1
  3. Willybobo

    Willybobo BEES!

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2014
    Posts:
    1,863
    Likes Received:
    4,898
    Trophy Points:
    13,287
    Credits:
    10,165
    Ratings:
    +7,518 / 67 / -54
    It seems we are in need of an editor. I'll talk to Val.
     
    • Trolling Trolling x 2
    • Like Like x 1
  4. Legend Knight

    Legend Knight Force Sensitive

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Posts:
    1,221
    Likes Received:
    3,952
    Trophy Points:
    12,329
    Credits:
    6,633
    Ratings:
    +5,207 / 78 / -27
    Well if you have already read the article and commented out there then you by no means have to click on this thread much less leave a comment. This thread is not hurting anyone. I prefer to comment out here bc I know everyone for the most part and want to hear there thoughts.
     
    • Clouded Clouded x 2
    • Like Like x 1
    • Wise Wise x 1
  5. Pawek_13

    Pawek_13 Jedi General

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2016
    Posts:
    3,384
    Likes Received:
    15,601
    Trophy Points:
    144,707
    Credits:
    13,982
    Ratings:
    +20,489 / 71 / -32
    Avatar is a strange film for the biggest box-office success in the history of cinema. The only time when it was frequently mentioned was in the crosswords I do on the monthly basis and even there it seems to fade away (words used in them change on around half-a-year basis.) I saw it once on the TV a couple of years ago and I really cannot understand why did it blew p the way it did. Sure, the VFX work was absolutely stunning but it didn't really had that much to offer in the story department, maybe except for the concept of beings being literally connected to nature with biological USB drives. No one seems to mention it anywhere, it didn't seem to influence the film industry too much (except for short resurgence of usage of 3D in cinema that keeps on lingering for way too long), with the only exception being a piece of software that allows you to create photorealistic foliage quickly and efficiently (it's called Speedtree.)
     
    • Like Like x 2
  6. SlugmanAttacks

    SlugmanAttacks Rebel Official

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2017
    Posts:
    677
    Likes Received:
    1,272
    Trophy Points:
    5,567
    Credits:
    1,471
    Ratings:
    +2,334 / 17 / -30
    Yeah I don't even understand the purpose of this. Seems like the author just want likes to share opinions about something even though no one is listening.

    Raise your hand if you like Avatar and will watch the sequels? Anyone? No? Didn't think so.
     
    • Friendly Friendly x 2
    • Like Like x 1
  7. Legend Knight

    Legend Knight Force Sensitive

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Posts:
    1,221
    Likes Received:
    3,952
    Trophy Points:
    12,329
    Credits:
    6,633
    Ratings:
    +5,207 / 78 / -27
    I saw it in theaters just for the spectacle of it but it was really lackluster. I did not even come close to creating a die hard fanbase that all franchises need in order to hang around. I will never underestimate Cameron though could the first 4 billion dollar movie knowing his luck.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  8. TheTechnician

    TheTechnician Rebelscum

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2016
    Posts:
    79
    Likes Received:
    98
    Trophy Points:
    757
    Credits:
    383
    Ratings:
    +146 / 7 / -2
    Love Jim Cameron but Avatar was lame. It filled a void left by Star Wars... (and poorly might I add...) Now that Star Wars is back, there is zero need for Avatar. How it ever got greenlit for more movies is beyond me...
     
    • Wise Wise x 1
  9. Pawek_13

    Pawek_13 Jedi General

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2016
    Posts:
    3,384
    Likes Received:
    15,601
    Trophy Points:
    144,707
    Credits:
    13,982
    Ratings:
    +20,489 / 71 / -32
    The first one made 2.8 billion dollars.
     
    • Funny Funny x 4
    • Like Like x 1
  10. Rogues1138

    Rogues1138 Jedi General

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2015
    Posts:
    2,763
    Likes Received:
    26,712
    Trophy Points:
    148,967
    Credits:
    15,024
    Ratings:
    +28,566 / 66 / -29
    I agree, but it did make a $... load of money. Its scheduled to be released in 2020 so I really don't care for the franchise and Star Wars is safe because i believe it'll get pushed back again. Marvel decided not to shoot the Infinity Wars back to back so there is a reason for that; therefore, Cameron shooting 4 or 5 films back to back will see the same problems.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  11. Viral Hide

    Viral Hide Elite Guard from Yinchorr
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Posts:
    1,806
    Likes Received:
    4,870
    Trophy Points:
    15,084
    Credits:
    9,536
    Ratings:
    +7,731 / 31 / -19
    Glad to see you back in the Cantina, it's been a long time. This is a new feature we have on the forum from almost a year now. Every single post from the site is also automatically posted in the Cantina as well. They are posted mainly in this News Feed thread. If they are more interesting they are posted under the appropriate forum.
    And yes, speculating is part of the editorials. It's slow news week and it doesn't hurt. ;)
    --- Double Post Merged, May 15, 2017, Original Post Date: May 15, 2017 ---
    And welcome back to you too. Glad to see you both active at the same time. Long time no see.
     
    • Like Like x 7
    • Friendly Friendly x 1
  12. Pomojema

    Pomojema Ayatollah Of Rock-&-Rolla
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2014
    Posts:
    8,579
    Likes Received:
    33,453
    Trophy Points:
    160,429
    Credits:
    33,890
    Ratings:
    +43,555 / 128 / -63
    As stated by VH above, these threads are made automatically - as soon as someone clicks the link to discuss it on these boards, a thread is made by a bot. I wouldn't have made a copy of this thread for an article like this.

    I started writing this piece closer to the date where there was actual news about Avatar getting delayed for the millionth time (I think it was in April or something) and wanted to address the question of whether or not Han Solo would move to December 2018 to take the spot that Avatar 2 was originally intended to release at. My intent was to do this along with bringing up questions about the release date for Episode IX that were since resolved by later statements revealing that that movie would also be a May release in 2019.

    We're in a slow period of news and I felt that it was best to make up for the absence of content by discussing something that is relevant to Disney's overall plan for this franchise and a competing franchise that they have a vested interest in. While no one has really cared about Avatar post-release, that's not relevant because we won't have a clear idea on whether or not the sequels will succeed or fail until we actually get footage. What is relevant is that this series is going to come into contact with Star Wars in some way, shape, or form in the years ahead.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  13. sbs87

    sbs87 Lord of The Dark Arts

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2014
    Posts:
    2,218
    Likes Received:
    3,909
    Trophy Points:
    11,092
    Credits:
    8,852
    Ratings:
    +5,854 / 84 / -53
    Is there a Blade Runner article on deck? I'd much rather hear about Harrison in Blade Runner and some details on that fine Cuban actress than the movies James Cameron is putting out in 5 years.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  14. Pomojema

    Pomojema Ayatollah Of Rock-&-Rolla
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2014
    Posts:
    8,579
    Likes Received:
    33,453
    Trophy Points:
    160,429
    Credits:
    33,890
    Ratings:
    +43,555 / 128 / -63
    We'll only make one if it has anything to do with Star Wars and/or Disney (which this piece did, even if I could have posted it at a better window). If Harrison Ford says something that's related to both Star Wars and Blade Runner then we might parrot it here.

    (Are you the user formerly known as @DarthDwight? In any case, it's been a while.)
     
    #14 Pomojema, May 16, 2017
    Last edited: May 16, 2017
    • Informative Informative x 1
  15. sbs87

    sbs87 Lord of The Dark Arts

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2014
    Posts:
    2,218
    Likes Received:
    3,909
    Trophy Points:
    11,092
    Credits:
    8,852
    Ratings:
    +5,854 / 84 / -53
    Nope just me as me. I did make part of your logo though.
     
    • Like Like x 2
    • Informative Informative x 1
    • Friendly Friendly x 1
  16. Grand Master Galen Marek

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2015
    Posts:
    21,145
    Likes Received:
    88,369
    Trophy Points:
    174,817
    Credits:
    40,484
    Ratings:
    +101,949 / 336 / -131
    I don't mind the wait, if new SW Spin-offs ideas come that should fill the lack of viewing.
     
    • Like Like x 1
Loading...

Share This Page