Full ST Backstory Theory

I've put this together over the last year and a half on Reddit, but here it is in full. I've broken it up into sections:

The Emperor and the Dark Presence:

A veil Empire's End has somewhat lifted is the nature of the Unknown Regions. In the book we learn that the regions are incredibly dangerous to navigate and no one has survived attempting it. During Sloane's journey in the epilogue, we get a glimpse of why:

We further learn more about the dark source first hinted at in Tarkin. The Emperor believed it to be the source of his powers and that it was somewhere in the roiling chaos of the Unknown Regions. In an effort to find it, he established a navigational mechanism using ancient machines at the Jakku Observatory which took 30 years to finish its work.

Now all of this is fascinating on its own, but I think it's particularly interesting in light of this passage in Tarkin:

Sidious is after something long sought by the Sith - power over reality itself. I think it is highly likely the dark presence and the phenomena present in the Unknown Regions is the result of an ancient attempt at doing precisely what Sidious aims to do. There is additional circumstantial evidence that the Unknown Regions have not always been so unknown or difficult to navigate:

• The Unknown Regions is contiguous and no other location in the galaxy is known to feature that kind of phenomena.
  
• The Jedi had ancient maps of the Unknown Regions deep within their archives at the Temple on Coruscant.
  
• Illum was located in the Unknown Regions.
  
• Jedha, a major location for many Force based religions and once the seat of the Jedi Order itself borders the Unknown Regions.
  
• The rumor in Rey's Survival Guide that there was a storehouse on Jakku holding artifacts from ancient civilizations.

I postulate the dark presence and Unknown Regions were due to an ancient Sith (or, possibly, Cora Vessora's revenge) attempt at controlling reality gone wrong. If this speculation is correct, I further postulate Sidious and Snoke ultimately need the Chosen One's bloodline to properly harness this tear in reality and the powers that resulted in its creation.

Secrets of the Emperor and Snoke:

A Secret Army

In the Clone Wars episode Children of the Force, Darth Sidious has several Force Sensitive children kidnapped and brought to Mustafar. There Sidious intends to turn them into Sith spies to infiltrate the Jedi Order. At the same time he reveals a much longer term plan:

In that episode he is foiled by Anakin and Ahsoka, but his interest in Force sensitive children continues. In Ahsoka, the Sixth Brother travels to where there had been rumors of a Force sensitive human girl. The girl is able to hide and he ultimately leaves when hears of Ahsoka's exploits elsewhere. In Rebels we see Inquisitors again attempting to kidnap Force sensitive children and are this time thwarted by Kanan and Ezra. Also in Rebels, Imperial academy instructors on Lothal are shown keeping an eye out for exceptional individuals who are referred to the Inquisitors. Each instance we see was thwarted, but the question is, what happened all the times someone wasn't around to stop them? The answer is likely that these special children are kidnapped and trained to be agents of the Emperor and his Empire.
There are many functions a cadre of Force sensitive agents could perform:

1. Palpatine's vision above for an army of seers.
   
2. Loyalty enforcers.
   
3. Field agents.
   
4. Exploring and researching Force related artifacts and locations.

We're actually given a hint of the second in Lost Stars:

The problem with a cadre of Force sensitives is they can each be extremely dangerous. Indeed, we see the Emperor's paranoia reflected in the Inquisitors who are given limited training in the dark side. How then, to ensure loyalty? The answer is to find them young and completely indoctrinate them to serve the Emperor. The Inquisitors can fill the initial role of finding the first generation and be dispensed with once an initial capability is established (the Inquisitors are disbanded by the Battle of Yavin).

Snoke's Role

The Emperor is a busy man and hardly the person to undertake the training of this group. Darth Vader, who is supposed to be plotting to take Emperor's place, certainly can't be trusted with an army of Force sensitives. Who, then, can be trusted? Only someone with knowledge of the Force who, like the children he trained and directed, was found at a young age and was to raised to devote his life to his 'father'.

In many ways, Snoke would be Vader's opposite. He served out of devotion to Palpatine and could be trusted with secrets and tasks others could not. Snoke knew what the Emperor's intentions regarding the Unknown Regions, the chosen one and understood the many Force related artifacts in ways men like Yupe Tashu could not. Where Vader ran the military and was the public 'face', Snoke ran the part of the Empire that worked in the shadows.

While the Emperor intended to rule forever, he was a thorough schemer and made arrangements for his goals to be completed even if he could be the one to do it. He tasked an orphan boy by the name of Galli with seeing that the Empire did not survive its Emperor. At the same time, the Emperor ensured the seeds of a new Empire would be planted. Galli mistakenly believed he was to rule this new Empire, but he was only to prepare the throne for another - one who knew and was committed to the Emperor's grandest plans. The Emperor had chosen a successor after all.

The Fall of Ben Solo:

I would like to say up front that I don't think JJ's statement in the commentary that Rey and Kylo haven't met before TFA should be taken absolutely. So please don't reply as though I'm not aware of what he said. Second, this is predicated on Rey Skywalker. Third, it does make some leaps that aren't predicated on any information we currently have. It's based on where I think the ST is going thematically.

We have been given very little about Ben's fall to the dark side. Based on the conversation between Han and Leia in TFA, it's very likely the two knew Snoke personally. Further, Leia's statement that Snoke had been influencing Ben 'from the beginning' suggests the relationship started close to Ben's birth. She further states Snoke knew he would be strong in the Force early on. For Snoke to target Ben so early, he must have somehow known Luke, Leia and Ben were the descendants of Anakin/Vader. This presents a problem, as the only people outside Luke, Leia, Han and Chewie to know of the Skywalker heritage were dead and we know the secret was kept until the events of Bloodline. We know Kenobi, Yoda and Bail never told anyone, which leaves the Emperor and Vader. Therefore, the probable way Snoke learned of the Skywalker heritage is through the Emperor.

I posit Snoke was a secret apprentice and agent of the Emperor (1). As an apprentice and confidant, he would have been in a position to know the Emperor's plans regarding the Force in general and the Skywalkers in particular. From there, it's simply a matter of learning Leia was Luke's sister to know Ben was Vader's grandson. He is also the person the Emperor secretly selected as his successor in the event of his death. Prior to Empire's End I believed Rax would fill this role, but the events of EE show he was just a means of ensuring the Empire did not long outlive its Emperor. However, I still think Snoke will have the background and role I anticipated for Rax.

In all likelihood, he infiltrated the Republic as a move to plant the seeds for the First Order within the nascent Republic and sabotage Luke, but once he learned Ben was Vader's grandson, he likely refocused on Leia and her son. As the Emperor's apprentice, Snoke would have known why the Chosen One and his bloodline were so important and it would prove invaluable if he could corrupt and recruit a descendant. As a child, Ben would have been especially susceptible to Snoke's influence.
Snoke's first goal would have been to emotionally isolate Ben while posing as his friend and mentor. Ben would have already been especially vulnerable due to his extreme Force Sensitivity. While secretly encouraging Ben's exploration of his powers, Snoke would need to see to it that there was no one to give him the guidance he desperately needed. With Luke rarely around (and Snoke probably did what he could to keep him busy), the only other person who could give Ben real guidance was Leia. By subtly undermining Leia's trust in herself and the Force, Snoke managed to make Leia forsake and even fear that part of her (2).

His own mother's fear and abandonment of the amazing power they both shared must have caused considerable confusion and distress for the young Ben. So, Ben befriended the only person who seemed to understand and encourage his gift. Snoke took full advantage of this and began to suggest that not only was Ben different, but superior. Ben's father's lack of sensitivity made him inferior and someone to be scorned. His mother had the gift, but was too emotionally weak to embrace it as she should.

Ben's attitude and resultant behavior would have become more and more distressing to Leia who sensed something was wrong, but didn't know what. She further worsened the situation by attempting to resolve it by herself, playing right into Snoke's hands. After every intervention she tried failed, she finally made the desperate decision to send Ben to Luke. To Ben, it must have felt like abandonment.
Away from Snoke's influence and with people who really understood what he had, Ben improved for a time. He became close to his uncle and even closer to his young cousin after she was born. For Snoke, it was a significant setback, but not an irrecoverable one.

At some point, Snoke somehow learned Luke had a daughter. He could not get close to her as he had Ben, so he waited for the right opportunity to abduct her. When that opportunity came, Snoke's thugs succeed in kidnapping Rey and bring her to Jakku to turn her over to the First Order. Ben and Luke learn of this and Ben insists they attempt a rescue. Luke, perhaps drawing on lessons learned from his own rash rescue attempt, tells him they need to be patient and this isn't the right time. Ben, however, decides to attempt a rescue without Luke and possibly gets the help of his father.

The attempt ends in disaster and Rey is presumed to killed (something happens which leads to her accidentally blocking her own connection to the Force). This incident is devastating for everyone involved. Luke is emotionally devastated and never fully recovers while Ben is left with overwhelming anger and guilt. Anger at Luke for seemingly abandoning his own family, but even more intense anger at himself for not being strong enough to save Rey. He resolves to become strong enough that he will never fail to protect those he loves again (3).

In the face of the wide rift that has formed between him and his uncle, Ben secretly reaches out to Snoke after this incident for guidance. This result was completely unexpected to Snoke and he takes full advantage of it. He carefully works to further undermine Ben and Luke's bond and starts to hint at Ben's true lineage and encourages him to embrace his ancestor's goals.

Luke, meanwhile, has realized a dark power was behind his daughter's kidnapping and apparent death. Ceasing his exploration of Jedi history, he begins rebuilding the Jedi Order to confront this threat. At some point, he learns of Snoke and moves to confront him. Around this time, Ben learns that what Snoke had been telling him is true; he is the grandson of Darth Vader. That his own family would keep this from him completely destroys his trust in them and cements his belief Snoke is his only true friend.

When Ben and Luke find and confront Snoke, Ben is shocked to find the person Luke wants to destroy is the only true mentor and friend Ben ever had. While Snoke tries to defend himself against Luke, the Jedi Master easily overpowers him and inflicts severe injuries. Snoke is beaten and Luke prepares to strike the final blow, but is stunned as Ben intervenes. Caught off guard, Luke is driven off and Ben leaves with Snoke. Fully believing that Luke and his nascent order are the true enemy, Ben doesn't hesitate when Snoke tells him to destroy Luke's order. Luke manages to escape his temporary imprisonment, but arrives too late to stop Ben and finds his students dead.

Luke is left in shock as a Jedi's attempt to destroy the darkness forever has led to the fall of a Skywalker a second time. Realizing that seeking to destroy the darkness only led to it growing stronger, Luke resolves to study how the Jedi and Sith came to be and find a way to break the cycle. Ben, in the meantime, assumes the identity of Kylo Ren and resolves to destroy all traces of Ben Solo.

Notes:
1: In Clone Wars, Sidious abducts several Force-Sensitive children to turn them into Sith spies. He further states he envisions a network of loyal acolytes who use the Force to peer into any corner of the galaxy. In Rebels, one of the functions of the Inquisitors is to find and forcibly recruit Force Sensitives. It's possible Snoke was tasked with overseeing the creation and operation of this network.
2: There is a notable difference in how Leia views the Force in Life Debt and Bloodline. In the former, she's interested and actively exploring her connection. By the latter, she seems to view her connection with suspicion and abandoned any attempts at developing her abilities.
3: In his moment of vulnerability on the bridge in TFA, Kylo states he wants to stop the pain. I think this may be one of the things he's referring too.

Rey's Abandonment:

As I've described previously, I believe Snoke discovered Luke had a young daughter and made plans to abduct and turn her. To do this, he needed to separate her from Luke long enough to kidnap her. Thus, Snoke staged an attack near Luke and his companions which Luke couldn't avoid. Luke, not wanting to take his five year old child into a battle-zone, told Rey to stay with 'Stay here. I'll come back for you'. When young Rey tried to go with anyway, Luke again reassured her 'I'll come back sweetheart. I promise'. Luke then went to assist his companions thinking Rey was safe. Unfortunately, this was exactly what Snoke had intended and a hidden group of attackers found and abducted Rey (possibly including one or more of Snoke's apprentices). Luke, of course, sensed this immediately and tried to return as fast as he could, but wasn't able to stop them before Rey's abductors reached Luke and Rey's ship and stole it.

The kidnappers immediately went to Jakku, intending to jump to the unknown regions from there. In the meantime, Han had arrived after hearing the distress call. Luke and his companions had managed to trace them to Jakku and Ben (who had been with Luke's group) demanded they go immediately (1). Sensing that an attempted rescue would end in disaster, Luke counseled patience and Han sided with him, but Ben took matters into his own hands.

On Jakku, the kidnappers landed near the wrecked research facility either intending to acquire the navigation data needed to traverse the Unknown Regions or to do something with the sealed borehole which led to the life essence corrupted by Rax (2). It is possible, they were deliberately attempting to expose the young girl. Regardless, Rey, already terrified and a member of the strongest Force-sensitive lineage ever, was particularly vulnerable to the effects of the corrupted essence (it's likely it was affecting her as soon as she got close to the planet). For Rey, it felt like a heretofore wonderful and integral part of her had turned on her, assaulting her mind with death and despair.

Ben, sensing Rey's terror and agony, rushed to attack the kidnappers immediately. While the fight was ongoing, Rey instinctively did the only thing she could to stop the psychic assault she was under, she blocked her own Force connection. Tragically, this occurred when the group of kidnappers she had last been seen with were killed. Ben sensed her disappear from the Force immediately and she had been killed (3). Horrified and heartbroken the would-be-rescuer retreated and returned to Luke with the news. A heartbroken Luke, having sensed her 'death' himself, accepted his report and could never bring himself to travel to Jakku.

Also believing she had been killed, the surviving kidnappers returned to Rey's family ship. Rey, who had been separated during the battle, regained her senses and returned to where the kidnappers had landed - just in time to see her family's ship taking off (4). Unkar Plutt, a local salvage dealer who had traveled to the scene to investigate the commotion, saw Rey. Figuring she was someone important that he would receive a large reward for 'rescuing', grabbed her as the ship was taking off (potentially inadvertently saving her from a worse fate). Unfortunately, every time she thought about her past, the memories of the horror she had experienced would inevitably return and she couldn't bring herself to tell Plutt where she came from. The only comfort she clung to were her father's promise that he would return for her.

Notes:
1) I'm aware of the JJ commentary and have explained my position on it in prior posts.
2) Yupe Tashu after being given several Sith artifacts in Empire's End - “Yes. I can feel it. I am a locus of dark energies. All the death and despair of the world is filtering through me. I can feel it on the back of my tongue. Captured there like a struggling moth—” 3) Afterwards, racked by guilt and heartbreak himself, Han may have slipped into his old ways for a time and lost the Falcon during this period.
4) Assuming she knows who Rey is by this point, Maz's statement that 'whomever you're waiting for is never coming back' to Rey would basically mean 'I don't know who you think left you on Jakku, but it wasn't your family'. Maz wants Rey to learn from Luke and doesn't want to let on she knows who Rey is.
5) LST would come to Jakku years later to search for a means of locating Luke.
6) I think Rey's disappearance was one of the key events in Ben's fall and what initiated his falling out with Luke.

Additional Support/Evidence:

I've been promoting the idea since April 2016 that Rey suffered severe Force trauma during the events of her abandonment and inadvertently blocked her own connection which gave the impression she had been killed. I even correctly predicted the existence of some kind of concentrated Force presence at the Observatory based on the theory. Here is what I consider the canonical evidence for it:

1. Rey's immediate response to the Forceback is to go back to her life on Jakku. Before Maz says anything about belonging, Rey's immediate reaction is to go back to what she knows. Further, she had spent the first part of the film anxiously insisting she needed needed to get back to Jakku even though she had only been gone a short period of time suggesting she was afraid of more than just missing her family.
   
2. Rey's strongest reaction came when Maz encouraged her to open herself to the Force and take the lightsaber. The Forceback was scary, but running randomly into the forest seems like an overreaction, unless the experience was triggering a much deeper and older fear.
3. The awakening itself. None of the other canonical examples of people discovering their potential has been described this way. Each of the other examples simply became aware of what they were already doing.
   
4. The timing of the awakening. Rey's awakening happened when she first did something outside of her comfort zone and overcame her fear of leaving Jakku.
   
5. Her dreams of green planets came when she was on the edge of sleep. Her block was at its weakest when she was close to unconsciousness, allowing the Force in.
   
6. The barrier Kylo encountered in Rey's mind in the novelization. When he pushed against it, she found herself in his mind. That pushing against it produced such a visceral reaction suggests the barrier was internal in origin.
   
7. Rey's instinctive ability to tap into the Force. Many people have commented on how quickly Rey picked up Force abilities. Canonically, the hardest initial obstacle to overcome for those who have just learned of their potential is how to let the Force in. Rey does it intuitively, suggesting it used to be second nature even if she never received any formal training.
   
8. In Empire's End, Gallius Rax pushes Yupe Tashu into the well with several Sith artifacts, corrupting the 'essence' in the planetary core. There is now a massive concentration of dark side energy at the heart of Jakku.

(Adapted from this post on Reddit.)

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The Emperor has been depicted as quite interested the indoctrination of children in Canon (original here):

I've noticed there's a plot element that keeps getting repeated - Palpatine, his Empire and the First Order keep targeting children. I've put together a list of instances in the new Canon to illustrate how pervasive it is:

• Sidious kidnapped Maul at a young age to be his first Sith apprentice.
  
• Cad Bane kidnapped multiple Force sensitive children for Sidious.
  
• The Inquisitors' secondary task is to locate and abduct Force sensitives - particularly young children (the Lothal rebels foil the abduction of two infants and the Sixth Brother investigates a four year old girl in Ahsoka).
  
• 20 year old Prelate Verge in Twilight Company was raised to worship Palpatine and saw himself as the future.
  
• Rax's obsession with children in Life Debt unnerves Sloane. Gallius himself was recruited by Palpatine as a child.
  
• Brendol Hux's 'feral' children in EE form the basis of the First Order stormtrooper corps.
  
• The First Order abducts young children and raises them to be fanatically loyal soldiers (the Visual Encyclopedia mentions the FO's officers are raised this way too).
  
• Armitage Hux is raised from age four to eventually take his father's place.
  
• Snoke targeted Ben 'since the beginning'.

While it hasn't been directly tied to it yet, I would like to point out Rey was 'abandoned' at age five on a planet that just happens to be the last stop before the Unknown Regions and Snoke.

Edit: Corrected Armitage's age in Life Debt from six to four.

 

As I stated in the linked explanation, I think Abrams was speaking in the context of making the movie and wasn't thinking of the backstory. Whether Rey and Kylo/Ben have or haven't ever met would be a major spoiler and not something he would casually drop in a commentary.

 

The Empire was pro-human, but as far as Palpatine was concerned, everyone was either a tool or obstacle regardless of species. He only cared if you were of use to him.

Figuring out how to get around that was a major driver for a lot of these ideas. Basically, I think Rey subconsciously blocked her own Force connection in response to massive trauma associated with encountering the dark side presence on Jakku (as enumerated in the main post, I think there are quite a few signs Rey is repressing in response to both Force-related trauma and from the abandonment itself). From the perspective of anyone connected to her, it would appear that she died. As an aside, I actually predicted the existence of a dark side presence on Jakku after Life Debt was released based on the idea.

Daisy might be being hyperbolic or facetious in the answer, but the idea Luke doesn't recognize her in the Force is intriguing based on the potential for what it says about Luke's emotional state and connection to the Force. As far as the second statement, I don't think it will be presented as a twist. Rather, the real drama isn't in the who, it's in the what happened and why.

All of this is based on what has been revealed so far. In fact, these theories have already resulted in several correct predictions (the dark side presence on Jakku and there being something necessary for navigating the Unknown Regions on Jakku).

 

Which statements?

 

I've put considerable effort into figuring out how the story is created actually. It's very much a collaborative effort with a lot of moving pieces. Johnson said he was given full creative control over where the story went with what has already been established. TFA's story wasn't created in a vacuum, but within a certain context. Johnson can do anything he wants based on what happened in TFA and that means he also can't change the context the movie was based on much (in practice, he has a lot less creative room than Lucas alone did). Second, keep in mind Johnson was brought on well before TFA hit theaters and it's not like he and JJ never communicated. In fact, the story for the entire trilogy has largely been set for a couple of months now (so long as no one else dies).