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SPECULATION Numbers, expectations & Yoda VS Chinanow

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi' started by MarsPhoenix, Jan 16, 2017.

  1. MarsPhoenix

    MarsPhoenix Sith Psychiatrist

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    Now we can say: Rogue One is a commercial success. Not only that but it became the #1 movie for domestic gross in 2016, making it the second Star Wars in 2 years making the TOP Yearly Box-Office winner.

    Now, Episode 8...

    It is safe to say Disney expects no less than #1 Movie in 2017.

    Some specialists speculate it could gross even more than TFA with fans, avid of some new Luke Skywalker action on the big screen.

    Some speculate it could be the first movie to gross 1 Billion domestically.

    How do you think it'll position itself? IMO, I think it will be closer to TFA than R1, but not quite as lucrative as Episode 7.

    Still, Star Wars struggles on the Chinese market...

    We know that movies with ghosts in them will have problems in China...

    Do you think Disney may veto a Yoda or Obi Wan Force ghost in Episode 8 for the sake of having a shot of beating previous 2 Star Wars movies at the B.O. ?

    Can China handle a Force ghost Yoda? Will Disney risk it with the huge amount of $ at stake?
     
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  2. Rogues1138

    Rogues1138 Crazy Old Wizard
    1030th Captain ** (Mod)

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    It will make 1.5 Billion. The mystery of TFA will bring everyone back and sad to say CF's last performance.
     
  3. Messi

    Messi G.O.A.T.

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    The first movies of each trilogy are the most powerfull at the box officce. And I think the same will apply to the ST.

    ANH, TPM and TFA are numbers ones.
     
  4. Jedi MD

    Jedi MD Jedi Commander

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    I agree that VIII will do better than R1 but probably not reach TFA. However, I do think that this being Carrie's last SW and the desire of people to see Luke in action after so many years that VIII may have a better performance than other sequels.

    SW already makes an a**load of money even with some underperformance in China and I don't think they will worry to much about taking ghosts out if they serve the story. The presence or lack of ghosts would likely have a minimal effect one way or the other.
     
  5. Demsa Aztor

    Demsa Aztor Rebel General

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    Not sure on this. TFA made 2 billion world wide. Opening weekend 250 Million. Ok, I'm thinking it'll definitely go over 200 million, say 220 million and make at least 1 billion worldwide.
     
  6. Darth Daigo

    Darth Daigo Rebel Official

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    It is important to keep in mind that TFA was the first Star Wars movie in 10 years. Anticipation was enormous. SW8 will do less. I would say $750M domestically and another $750M internationally (i.e., $1.5B worldwide). For some reason, it is difficult to reach the masses in China. It has, however, little to do with ghosts. Even the ghost-less R1 did poorly.
     
    #6 Darth Daigo, Jan 17, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2017
  7. Bluemilk

    Bluemilk I AM the Senate

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    Why don't the Chinese like ghosts in movies?

    I'd say it will pass TFA.
     
  8. master_shaitan

    master_shaitan Jedi General

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    Depends if it is any good.
     
  9. Bluemilk

    Bluemilk I AM the Senate

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    I'd say it will be.
     
  10. Julius Fett

    Julius Fett Force Sensitive

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    I think it could certainly get close to TFA, but beating it? I'm not so sure. Remember too that TFA is second all-time on initial run (Titanic got $500+ million from a second run) and first domestically; I still expect this to be the highest grossing movie trilogy of all time for quite a while after IX comes out.

    The thing is, we won't get any of the excuses such as "burnout" or "it's like all the others" (well...) when it comes to Star Wars as opposed to, say, your average superhero film. Minus the Avengers films, Civil War and BvS, in the last 5 years or so "must see" films of this nature (those that YOU MUST SEE OPENING WEEKEND in fear of having it ruined for you), they've provided no analogy for Star Wars.

    No major numbers are going to drop off because of TFA or Rogue One; if people didn't like them, they'll see this one opening weekend still just to get in on the conversation - those who didn't go to a cinema to see TFA more than likely have seen it at home in some form or another - and if they did, then even more power to them.

    And, as opposed to TFA, this won't have the legs or time to have them, either. If I recall, TFA went unchallenged at the top until the end of Jan 2016 to Kung Fu Panda 3, and still remained relevant in the weekly Top 5 for a while thereafter. VIII, on the other hand, will have to deal with losing some money to Bad Boys and Maze Runner sequels next January, before being sunk by the final Fifty Shades film in Feb. The only real chance they'll have is if they can crack the Chinese market, but they couldn't do that with Donnie Yen, and I don't see much being different here as a result. Except for the American Domestic, which seems to compensate for the confusing-when-it-comes-to-film Chinese.

    Predictions:
    • Opening weekend: $210 - $230 million
    • Worldwide total: $1.5 - $1.8 billion
    • US domestic: $0.85 - $1.1 billion
     
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