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RT Audience Score Rigged Again

Discussion in 'Solo' started by DailyPlunge, May 20, 2018.

  1. KeithF1138

    KeithF1138 Force Sensitive

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    Think of it this way at $10 per ticket average TLJ had 133 million views. RT audience score is 200 thousand votes. Solo has sold 17 million tickets and has 28 thousand votes. Audience score is not a valuable metric.
     
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  2. Shadowblade

    Shadowblade Clone Commander

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    @Jason

    Those were two remarbable posts and work. I must say I am impressed that you took the time to plot the data, and had the skill. It had some very insightful information.

    As for the non-gaussian type results we see from RT, IMDB and Fandango, I concur than one should be sceptical. You are very right in regards to the binary nature of the tomatometer. Yet, we have to remember that the general curve is actually slated towards giving positive reviews in everyone but metacritc, not negative. If we were to use metacritic which has a curve that would fit a normal distribution, we would still get a total score of 4.5/10 for TLJ. Would you say metascore has the best method if you had to chose between the user reviews aggregation tools? I think we are quite in tune that selection of the sample is paramount...thus polls taken like cinemascore is a better method at first look. But, the problem is the environment, which I am sure you know of and I will elaborate on later.

    Yes, it is a good point to be aware of the demographics for a particular site. I guess being male and reltatively young should make me fit right in :)

    I agree that the greatest bias could be that a proportion of the audience hated the film so much that it prompted them to write a review, thus way skewing the results. This is it's greatest weakness. That seems to me to be a more logical approach than thinking it was done through bots. I still believe it is quite off in regards to reception when compared to TFA/RO, it's just hard to put down what proportion of movie-goers did not care for it.

    Now, talking about positive bias:I trust you agree that nearly all Cinemascore ratings are skewed positive as well, and can not necessarily be used to say how it is perceived in the general population? Would it be correct to say that 89% of the general population will like it since that was the score on opening night thorugh cinemascore? (I believe the article you linked to delved into that, explaining that the environment it was taken in tends to give high scores. I guess for a franchise like SW that is especially true) How do you think a cinemascore result relates to the general moviegoer or "average Joe"? The point I have been trying to make is that it would be very selective to use cinemascore ratings in that dogmatic manner.

    Now, I find it fascinating i how Cinemascore seems to be so good at predicting legs of a movie. Still, it seemingly can't be used to determine how well films do on openings, just it's legs it seems. There has to be different factors involved in determining the initial box office opening, be it marketing, previous following, rumours about it, iconic actors, etc. Opening night is the "really" big factor, not just it legs, the multipliers show less variation. Especially for front-loaded franchise films the legs matter less.

    I think you might find this article interesting in comparing box office numbers and their relationship to cinemascore:

    http://www.jeditemplearchives.com/2018-05-01-cinemascore-rotten-tomatoes-and-imdb-an-investigation/

    I just had some questions about your method and variables in producing the chart. 4% response on negatives may be industry standard as you say, but I find this to be the most troubling prerequisite for your model. To me that seems hard to know in this case.How many are likely to post positive reviews then...near 4% for them? Or smaller/larger? What is then the total amount of moviegoers who log on to a site to write a review/score it, 8-10%? That seems excessive, it is unlikely that the tendency to write reviews with no incentive is that high. Please tell me if I misunderstand your reasoning.

    A movie would also tend to be rated worse over time, as it will get more reviews and that is a variable in your model. If a movie only had 100 000 reviews in 2016, and 500 000 6 months later, would not the reception change since it is a function of sold tickets and reviews? (Arguable there's other media than cinemas out there then...but by then we would really have numbers that are unreliable)

    Your model would also favor any movie that has a good box office if I understand correctly. Naturally, there should be a correlation there...but the prerequisites you made means that if we think the reviews on all films are proportionate, any film with a high box office score will be generally wiewed on favorable through your model. Do tell me if I am wrong, but if you set the adience score to 80% dislike, 20% like, will that affect TLJ on your curve ever the slightest? If you run franchises like Blade and Transformers through your model, would you not get a similar chart? Not trying to make you do more work here, but you see my point perhaps.

    I think all the methods we have in determining the popularity of TLJ are flawed. You would have to do a survey now with a randomized selection of viewers to get a good estimate one can rely on. I still find it likely that it was polarizing, and generally not so well received as FA. Flawed tools, yes indeed, but they still all show a definite shift from FA to TLJ, which could be on par with the prequel vs OT sentiment in strength.
     
    #202 Shadowblade, May 31, 2018
    Last edited: May 31, 2018
  3. Jayson

    Jayson Resident Lucasian

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    Yes, the aggregate is in the positive favor, however, don't lose sight of the account that the highest peaks exist in the low volumes in two very specific value bins.
    This is why I said that the behavior with RT Audience is basically one where folks show up mostly to say they liked something, but when they have anything other than that they liked it, it tends to dominantly be that they hated it. It's just that the instances of hating something appears to happen less than the instances of liking something.
    It's still a polarized behavior with a poorly formed distribution.

    I have not seen the distribution for audience reviews from metascore, so I can't answer to that.
    The distribution that you are seeing in the charts that I showed are related to the Metascore, which in Solo's case is 62, and 85 for TLJ.

    I would need to run a distribution test on the audience section of metacritic to find out if that's well fitted or not; which I haven't done, and the original supplier of the data did not do either (although, I do have his raw data, so I could go look up all 214 films and test the distribution for the audience section...I'll try to get to this when I get time).

    It's vitally important to remember that every poll taking method is flawed. ALL of them.
    There's no such thing as a perfect poll.
    What there is, however, is a scientifically controlled poll vs. a non-scientifically controlled poll.

    One of the first steps towards a scientifically controlled poll is randomized polling; not self-elected polling.
    Self-elected polling inherently contains a bias that you then have to work backwards to remove from the reflection of the results, and very few do this (dare I say none?)

    Metacritic's metascore is interesting because it's pulling in reviews from critics who made reviews already, and outside of, metacritic.
    The metacritic site converts those reviews into scores and then displays a weighted average.
    You can basically think of the Metascore as a way to see what critics thought, as an average, without needing to read a bunch of critic's reviews.

    So there again we have a pretty good diversity in polling because we don't have self-electing candidates, but an aggregation of already extant opinions.
    This is why there's a nice distribution over several films.

    With audience self-elect scores, it gets far more difficult because, well...folks voting are voting because they have something that they want to say.
    There's no sneaking going on like a good scientific poll, so there's an inherent bias because a bunch of opinions will never be represented because those folks never wanted to go vote and share their thoughts.

    This is why you see, typically, a lopsidedness to scores that are self-elected polls (and also why the academia of demographics at large tends to generally dismiss them as highly useful).

    Yes. Bots will also influence it, sure, but again, this issue right here is by far more of the problem with them.
    Your own behavior is reflective of the problem, if you think about it. "Oh, I wonder what Rotten Tomatoes scores look like?"
    Boom. In terms of polling theory and best practices, you're involved in a bias; even if you don't leave a rating, but especially if you do.
    Because you are already approaching the system, as a potential contributor, with an interest to knowing the results.

    Scientific polls don't tell you the results before you give your poll results, and the people giving their polls are not capable of being the same demographic as those who will read the results of the poll.
    That most of these sites even allow for comments and list interactive handles next to them is even worse because there should be no capable interaction or knowledge of other poll rating suppliers.

    If I had to ballpark it, based on what I've seen, somewhere no greater than about 25% of the general audience, and more likely somewhere less than that.
    You have to keep in mind that the general audience is not really that picky with films like film fans, or Star Wars (or whatever) fans are.
    Film fans are a form of snob (*raises hand*), and brand fans are equally so with their niche (Star Wars may be ugly, but Star Trek is...wow...there's some crazy going on over there lately).

    Again, no poll is full-proof, but that being said, no. I do NOT agree that 89% of the general population will say that they like something on opening night.
    Here's a pluthera of films with a C rating from Cinemascore:
    http://www.listal.com/list/19951999-cinemascore-films-cs

    Here's another list
    https://letterboxd.com/leologan09/list/cinemascore-films-with-cs-2000-2004/

    Neither of these are complete lists.

    That's not 80% of the population thinking a film was good.
    That is interpreted by Cinemascore to be a bad score. Any lower and it's basically considered that the film should probably not have even been made, or there was a horrendous marketing problem.

    You'll notice some major titles in here. Boogie Nights, Night at the Roxbury, Batman and Robin Forever, Wild Wild West, Striptease, Sphere, A.I., The Village....etc...

    No, of course it can't be used that way.
    There isn't a score before the opening weekend, and the Cinemascore is made by polling people as they leave the theaters during opening weekend.

    You'd need a time machine to pull off using the Cinemascore to predict opening weekend.

    Um...he's using a linear trend line for comparison to a non-linear plot.
    That doesn't make any sense.
    He should be using a polynomial trend line, or an exponential trend line for comparison.

    His comparisons are flawed here because he worked from an axiom of linear progression, like we're talking about the ideal fuel to weight ratio expenditure compared to what we're getting, but we're not dealing with inanimate objects; we're dealing with human behavior.
    Human behavior, especially when it comes to economics and consumer taste is almost never acutely linear.

    If it was, we wouldn't need economists.

    He seemed to also miss that the cinemascore multipliers themselves are not linear.
    They are a 0.98 fit to a 6 point polynomial trend and only a 0.7 fit to a linear progression.
    And that's not counting the quantities in each bin, which then goes all over the place.

    If you try to place a linear trend to the quantity of films per multiplier, then you'll get a fit of 0.39
    That's...not impressive.

    A 6 point polynomial trend, however, fits at 0.99

    He also doesn't provide standard deviations or error rates, or even variance values.
    He's quite literally just saying that the best one is the one that has the best fit to a linear trendline; assuming that box office results and film appreciation have a linear relationship...which may not be true at all. You can't make that assumption.
    It might be the case that there are variations in that rational expectation in reality. There may be films that are flocked to on an opening weekend and make very large amounts of money, but which end up with low opinions in polling anywhere.
    Equally, there may be the inverse relationship.

    I'm not claiming that there is; I'm saying he didn't proof against that. He just made an assumption and ran with it, which is fine; sometimes you don't have a choice (like I didn't), but when you do that, you have to supply deviations and error margins.
    It's not just slapping a line on a chart and saying, "Well, this doesn't fit so it's wrong".

    He also didn't supply his raw data, so I can't actually go and check with improved models.

    This is why I provided a standard deviation as well as an error margin; because there are axioms, such as this, in the model.
    You can't actually know the total of all variables with this kind of work, but you can come close.

    As to how many people sign on and vote out of the total general viewing audience; on average, that is estimated to be around 1% of the general audience, with a stdv of 0.24%.

    This doesn't really much matter.
    The Star Wars films of old never had any reviews. I'm sampling Rotten Tomatoes to discern the percent of audience who did not like the film in question, even though I disagree with RT's methods, just to make a point that even if you use RT's scores from its audience ratings section, which puts the hypothesis behind the 8 ball (which is good...we don't want to favor the hypothesis; we want it harder on it).
    So I'm taking RT at face value here and saying, "OK, let's say RT is an accurate representation of people's opinions to any real degree and include that into the general population volume using standard economic and demographic models".

    The way I checked back over my shoulder was to run a T-test and a correlation test between the output of my model and the original RT scores. If my model warps the RT scores incorrectly, then the T-test and Correlations will fail, but those tests did not fail, so there is a good fit between the two model outputs.

    Yes it would, it would drop it down to 87%, which is quite a substantial move from 91%.
    If you did the same to AOTC, for example, you would see it drop to 75% down from 87%, because it scales in impact according to the box office returns, because box office numbers translate to butts in seats, and ultimately, butts in seats equals a larger pool to contrast against the review group.

    Note that these values pretty much align with Cinemascore values, when you take into account the error margins and the avg STDV band.
    Which is to say, pretty much...A-'s and A's.
    Darn.

    If anything, this model is actually a bit harder on the films than Cinemascore because one of its principle pistons in its engine is the RT Audience scores.

    Which means, by the way, that you can coax RT's Audience scores into being a pretty good real representation of the actual favor of a film, but you have to pass it through a lot of filtering and use it as part of the engine rather than taking it on face value alone.
    In other words, you can't look at RT's score and say, "Oh, 47% of the audience that watched TLJ liked it".
    No.

    All tools that we have are flawed for demography.
    ALL of them.
    Even if you did a randomized robo-call right this minute across 1.5 million households polling TLJ reviews, you would have flaws.

    The closest we have to a purely randomized poll is quite literally Cinemascore.
    Figuratively like entropy, the further away from the theater we go, the worse our quality control gets.

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
    #203 Jayson, May 31, 2018
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  4. McDiarmid

    McDiarmid Force Sensitive

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    Only people that are thinking in a bubble that is as thick as Kessel fog can not see from THIS yours post what TLJ is.
    Appologetics cant change facts.
    The saddest and most dissastrous fact , in this moment ,now,(I understad it but its critical error exatly now!) is that Disney is not accepting and trying to reconciliate with audience, they are conducting brain washing and fire extringuishing of the criticism trough mainstream media and moderated social media. This makes the tension even greater.
    Now is the moment they should say: ", folks, we made mistake,it was in good intention, we wanted something original, to offer you new experience in ep VIII...everyone makes mistake, forgive us."
    And it would be forgiven.
    But no.
     
    #204 McDiarmid, Jun 1, 2018
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  5. Shadowblade

    Shadowblade Clone Commander

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    Yes, it is indeed, your point has merit. And no, as I have explained, I do not take it at face value that only 46% liked the film due to the scores at RT. But, it is an indication that something serious is up in regards to a changed sentiment from previous films. While the tool is flawed, it is certain that something is up with TLJ compared with other SW films evaluted through the same system. While it does not give us a true value...we can catch tendencies. (even though they will show an overestimation i some cases for negtaive reviews) We are talking prequel scores here. Few will claim they were masterpieces. What seperates TLJ from them is an aggravated polarization....I am convinced a greater proportion than normal will either love or hate it.


    I did not notice that it showed the critic distribution and not the audience score. I think you can save yourself the trouble, it will probably reflect RT, and be caused by a self-selection bias. Explained through human behaviour more than anything. The pulled results from critics also explain the gauss curve.


    It is evident you have a deep understanding of the matter, and I concur.

    And my ballpark would be no less than 30% disliking the movie. Now, that would be an estimated guess as well. (and a biased one at that)


    I had faith you would see this, and it was not misplaced. There is a reason B's are shaky. I will elaborate further on...but it is my opinion that saying that 89% of people liked TLJ based off the cinemascore as an "end of discussion" would be just as misplaces as saying 46% liked it due to RT. It has to be somewhere in between.


    Perhaps you should mail him and ask him :) Could be a fruitful discussion. Now, I have to admit you seem much more skilled plotting the models then I ever was. But, I do read studies quite often...I usually look the closest on confounders, the method and sample size to evaluate them.

    Well, I have to disagree that a 4% change would alter your model's clear message; that it was well liked by general audiences. It would not rock this conclusion at all. As I am sure your dataplotting is sound, you seem very competent. My critique is the estimations you did as the basis of it . This in regards to a fixed reflection on "negatives out there" reflected by "negative reviews", combined with total reviews/ticket sales. At least the two first will be hard to estimate. The variation you had as a hypothesis would not be able to influence it your results in any major way, once you made your initial assumptions...the results were already determined through box office/review estimates.


    Now, here I am of a different opinion, with all due respect. I would much prefer the robo-calls, even though you will find flaws in them as well, such as seeing a SW film in the first place. You would come close if they were truly selected at random in the sample size we want to inspect. In this case the general audience.

    I strongly disagree that Cinemascore gives true scores as to general audiences. Why? Because it is plagued from selection bias from the start. You are after all polling people who bought or were perhaps given tickes for opening shows. Some might even have lined up to get them in the instance of SW. Dressed as Rey. This effect should be more pronounced in franchises. Here you are looking at the "super-fans" or people associated with the movie. You are in not polling the general audience. The sample size of 600 is also quite low, but I guess the standard deviation might not suffer too much. I probably mention things here you are already aware of, as of your previews posts. You have eloquently pointed out how C's are dreadful when seen with cinemascore, B's are shaky, even A- might run into trouble. That might not be so intuitive for some... That is actually a criticism of your previous chart as well. If I made the model (but alas, my skills do not match yours), and saw the results line up with cinemascore....I would say..."darn" a swell, with quite the opposite meaning. If I hit quite near the cinemascore results, I would be sure it must be an overestimation of how I gauged the general audience reception. And, might I add in a little humoristaclly...any chart showing the Phantom Menace with a favorable opinion of 92% should raise your eyebrows just as high as looking at scores not aligning with a gausse curve ;-)

    Long post, but it was a treat reading your informed reflections. I originally posted here to give some thoughts as to why RT in time wil not be rigged through mass action. Numbers are just too high, they would have an impact but ultimately drown, and RT has methods of avoiding bots I am sure. Solo is ticking upwards as expected, showing a different reception from the ones who saw it than TLJ. (Even though we can agree to disagree about the ballpark of "likes and "dislikes". ) Without kidnapping random people and placing them in a cinema, we will not know for sure :)


    Cheers to you as well,
    Shadow
     
    #205 Shadowblade, Jun 1, 2018
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  6. McDiarmid

    McDiarmid Force Sensitive

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    post on wrong thread.
     
    #206 McDiarmid, Jun 1, 2018
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  7. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Coramoor

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    A common patter for the vote brigading of TLJ was "Kennedy has a SJW agenda and it ruined the film." This was also a major them of the "not interested" votes before Solo's release. The interesting thing to me is that Solo is kind of free from the brigading since hardcore fans seem to be united that they like it (it's a shame the general audience doesn't agree).

    So here's the theme with Solo....

    [​IMG]

    I've never met anyone to talks this way about Star Wars, but the whole "Kennedy SJW agenda" thing is posted over and over. Is that what is fueling the brigaders? It's worth noting most people who didn't like TLJ don't talk or think this way. However, the ones who feel compelled to vote over and over, brigade, and harass producers lean on this angle.

    Maybe it's just a product of the times. Certain people simply can't remove politics from any subject and they find something to be outraged about everything.
     
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  8. FN-3263827

    FN-3263827 First Order CPS
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    his use of the words "repugnant and arrogant" are ridiculously ironic.

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. KeithF1138

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    I will give the author of the review kudos for admitting that female characters that arent just pretty window dressing bother him. First time I can say I have seen someone mention SJW and then showing one of the items he was bothered by and it was women.

    The SJW is the biggest cop out to criticize a SW film. I can imagine them doing the something with Leia killing Jabba. "When you have some super feminist unrealistically strangling Jabba I have had it with George Lucas SJW agenda." . Or having the rebellion ran by a woman. It is just people who think that any mention of fighting for someones rights is some sort of crazy liberal agenda. Hey the whole OT SW saga is about fighting a huge authoritarian all white all human organization that has take rights away from everyone else.
     
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  10. Legend Knight

    Legend Knight Force Sensitive

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    I have not been the biggest fan of the newer Disney Star Wars movies but people who honestly think that rotten tomatoes is not being sabotaged you are being pretty ignorant.
     
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  11. Shadowblade

    Shadowblade Clone Commander

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    It is well that we see that it is not about "SJW" for most people. Quite a few blamed "SJW" inputs to why the plot did not work. I think we agree that a diverse cast/ideas can not come at the expense of a good story or continuation of SW themes to please, even though I am sure you will not think this applies to TLJ. (we have to agree to disagree there) Most of the reviews seem centered on the actual movie and the way it was perceived on its own.

    Now, as the numbers pile in, fringe groups that despise it just on account of TLJ divisivness will drown. Solo has risen to 64% approval rating, with a 3.4/5 average. Critics at 71%, 6.4/10 average. Solo will stand on it's feet, for good or bad, in due time. Still, you can't get back a failed opening, but there are multiple factors as to why that happened, not just spillover from TLJ's reception.

    Can I ask you one question? What average approval rating for Solo would you feel is "ok" in regards to not feelling that RT is rigged? (other than its inherent flaws, which has been discussed eleswhere)

    solo reviews.jpg
     
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  12. DailyPlunge

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    I think you're missing the point. This score is easy to rig if there a group willing to brigade the number. I don't feel anything about the Solo score, but I know that the RT score can be brigaded.

    This thread was created before the film came at and the "not interested" number was being brigaded. This was after the TLJ being brigaded.
     
  13. Shadowblade

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    Forgive me, I think you base you conclusions on account of your personal opinion of TLJ. Since they are way off from the the numbers you see, you automatically assume that it is due to a concentated effort. The other explanation is that the film had a significant divide and was polar in it’s reception...thus trigging more and very negative reviews. And that the «vocal minority» is not so small. (Though still a minority)

    My point is that I very well believe it has been under attack from groups of people who genuinly hated TLJ, it is unlikely it could cause that great of an impact when the reviews are many. Sure, you could do it when they are a few hundreds or thousands, but the effect will diminish when it reaches tens or hundreds of thousand.

    Now, if you have no opinion at all for solo that you want to give...give me your rating of the phantom menace. Anecdotal or not. And I know you have one for that particular movie
     
    #213 Shadowblade, Jun 2, 2018
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  14. KeithF1138

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    What do you mean by SJW. Come on say what you mean. Dont hide behind a dog whistle. Does a white person make a character in a galaxy full of aliens not work? Does a human actor that happens to be latino or black or asian somehow not make a character work? So which character in the last 4 Star Wars movies not work because the character was played by a diverse or female actor?
     
  15. Shadowblade

    Shadowblade Clone Commander

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    No. It really does not matter.

    Finn could have been purple for all I care . They should simply not have wasted his character (which showed such promise in TFA) with an irrelevant plot. Poor guy is made into the comical relief...he should be allowed to be a hero in his own right and build upon TFA. Rey could have been transsexual without me lifting an eyebrow if she had been given the classic hero's journey, and not being made into a bland Mary Sue/Gary Sue. If Rose Tico were white, man, alien, whatever; she would still be a bland uninteresting cardboard character that should never have been introduced. And don't get me started on Luke or Holdo.

    I think some of the criticism for the "SJW" themes were that some people think it was chosen instead of character development or a good story. Like inventing a new Asian character to sway the Chinese market. (whether or not that was a factor I am not sure of, but some will believe it) The ones who feel "traditional values etc" are at stake are few, at least in the European market. (The US just has too many nuts :)) Most people would be pleased if they were given a compelling story with compelling character build-up.
     
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  16. KeithF1138

    KeithF1138 Force Sensitive

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    Then dont give the toxic people who use SJW credit by using their term. It is a dog whistle. Not saying Rose was made Asian to sway the Chinese market (She isnt Chinese, but people who use SJW wouldnt know or care. All they care about is she isnt white.), but I doubt it. If they wanted they would have found a actress well known in China for the role, not an unknown American-Vietnamese actress.
     
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  17. Shadowblade

    Shadowblade Clone Commander

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    The term is out there, and referenced to above. Discussing whether it has impact is not giving it credit, or agreeing with those perpectives. In my mind the «SJW» hate is not what drives the low reviews, it is just a small part of it that has been highlighted. It is a very convenient scapegoat for a bad reception due to script decisions, with fringe groups happy with the attention they get.
     
  18. KeithF1138

    KeithF1138 Force Sensitive

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    How would that work with the people who loved TLJ. The people that think it went in a strong new direction? How would it work with people that think giving in to toxic people who throw out comments that say Disney is using Star Wars for a SJW agenda? How would that work? How would you change Ep9 so this works?
    --- Double Post Merged, Jun 2, 2018, Original Post Date: Jun 2, 2018 ---
    So dont use the term they like. Say what it is. When I see them say Disney has a SJW agenda for Star Wars I know what it is. It is them saying Disney is using Star Wars to push a straight white male hating agenda. Disney is pushing feminism on me. Make them say that. It doesnt look good for them to say what SJW really means.
     
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  19. zazeron

    zazeron Rebelscum

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    The fact that the audience score is higher than TLJ and yet is still bombing at the box office is not helping disneys case
     
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  20. Ruralfarmboy

    Ruralfarmboy Jedi General

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    Ignorance is Bliss.
    Ignorance IS Bliss to Some (Sadly, Them Don't Know Who They Are)
    What's Sadder ?
    They just Showed themselves Off.
    Yeah.
    Ya Did.

    ... can ya see it ?

    ... Oh ... probably not.

    And ? Ya Told So Many So.
    And It Was was done in just One of Many ways ...
    An' In More than just this here One thread.

    Please !
    Say some More to 'Tell' on yerself ...
     
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