Solo Box Office Predictions

A good friend left Star Wars Fandom because of TPM but when the media said ROTS was good to my surprise he called me up to go see it and he enjoyed it very much, ( I still can remember the big smile on his face when OB1 flies out of his cockpit with ignited saber. that is what TLJ haters wanted badass Luke) so I think the same will happen with all the TLJ haters if there is good word of mouth they'll breakdown and see SOLO.

 

The problem is that nobody trust the reviews anymore after TLJ had a critics 90%, and fans 50%. I honestly won't even bother with the reviews for Solo because the way the gushed about TLJ was embarrassing. It is one thing to like or love a movie as I love TFA, but I never said it was the next Lawrence of Arabia as some of the critics were spewing about TLJ.

I agree that in the end, some of them will come home because it's in our DNA. I just think ROTS had the hook of 'How Darth Vader came to be' and that is what EVERYONE wanted to see for years, as Han Solo or even Episode 9 doesn't have that same hook. Yes, good reviews will help but Lucas always had that hook with the PT no matter how bad they were that we would get to see how Darth Vader came to be.

 

Well, I don't really care. Sometimes studios need to learn it the hard way before giving in to what's best for the brand. Similar to Sony giving Marvel Studios the creative control of their Spider-Man films after the disaster that was TASM2.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 8, 2018, Original Post Date: Feb 8, 2018 ---

Yep, and the main difference here is that ROTS really delivered when it came to Darth Vader. TLJ did not deliver when it came to Luke, the character EVERYONE wanted to see.

 

Thats true, allot of fans won't trust the media or critics because of the backlash, but if someone you know says SOLO is badass, good word of mouth, I enjoyed it, and so forth, haters will be itching to see it.

You must remember average critics are not Star Wars fans. They will judge a films solely on its merit, not because they follow or understand what makes a Star Wars film great.

The critics I follow love the films that I'm into. For example, my critic loves the Man of Steel, most critics don't. As a movie buff I've read numerous articles on how to choose the right critics. I follow 4 critics different from each other. They might not necessarily like all the film I like, but the majority at least. the critics I follow have worked in the comics industry or have a good understanding of comics history, and most of all are Star Wars fans and will not say a Star Wars films is good like Kevin Smith. they will outline the good and the bad and won't be afraid to say a films sucks.

HAHA Kevin Smith cried when he was on the set of TFA and walked on the Falcon so you can't trust him, and Spielberg is George Lucas' buddy so you couldn't trust him with TPM. Rotten tomatoes to me is a waste of time. I'll wait for my critic reviews.

Find the critics that like the same films you do, and research their background, and you'll save allot of money at the theater.

 

That's a fair point as I may have to do some research and find out the type of reviewer I want to hear regarding a SW film.

 

I would say less than Rogue One because the SW dry-spell between TLJ and Solo is much shorter than what we are used to. In addition to that R1 was well received and I wouldn't necessarily count on the Solo movie being better than R1.

 

Really delivered maybe 30 seconds in the suit and a "Nooooooo!". Meanwhile Mark Hamil is a co-lead and arguably the lead giving easily his best live action performance of his career.

 

289 DOM and 341 OS

Total 630

 

Vader is Vader even without the suit. Also, Anakin is Vader.

Mark Hamill is a great actor, however I'm not going to judge a character solely based on how well the acting is. There are so many other things you have to consider.

 

Rogue One came after the highest grossing movie ever (and even if we adjust by inflation, it did 2 fricking billion). That movie, even if 200 loud people on the Internet claimed it was a rehash, left lots of goodwill.

Rogue One came, and with the Darth Vader push, did 1 billion dollars. A similar case would be Iron Man 3 after the first Avengers. There are differences, but there were lots of hype in both.

Now, The Last Jedi did 1.3 billion. That's a lot, but it's less than Age of Ultron. And Age of Ultron came from 1.5 billion, while TLJ came from 2 billlion.

And not only that, Solo has started its marketing...4 months before the movie.

It also has a little controversy around the "Not my Han Solo" main character. And its first teaser, just has 10 million views (Rogue One has 20 million or something like that, and just a 20 second clip of Infinity War has 20 million too. Even Mission Impossible has more views than the first Han teaser).

And not only that Part 2: there's also this little movie called Infinity War and Deadpool 2 messing around.

So? Depends on the reviews, but right now my take is:

Domestic: 300-350 million (unless the reviews are stellar, there's no way it does the 500 million Rogue One did).
Foreign: 400 million. (No China and no Chinese Stars. The Last Jedi did 600 million after the 1 billion TFA did and the 500 million Rogue One did).
Total: 750 million.

If it's pretty good, I can see 800 million, but with Infinity War, no billion.

 

No way TLJ hurts Solo's box office. No matter what they say, 99% of the Star Wars hardcores that have been complaining about TLJ will still go see Solo.

The only thing that will sink Solo is if it's not a good movie. General audiences will be more open to Solo than Rogue One because it's more accessible, and its full of iconic characters. A huge opening weekend is guaranteed, and if it gets good word of mouth it will have legs.

BUT - being released in a crowded summer will have an impact. IF it's good, I would expect a take similar to Wonder Woman last year, or Civil War the year before (say $420mil). If it's not good probably $150 less.

I'm predicting the higher end. I think it will turn out to be a fun movie, and Kasdan's dialogue will produce Han Solo's voice, even with a different actor. It will be funny, and though some hard core fans won't like that, it will encourage casuals to go see it.

Plus, I think Deadpool 2 will disappoint, clearing a little room for Solo.

UPDATE: I just looked at the summer release schedule, and after Solo its 3 weeks before the next big premiere (Incredibles 2). So I'm upping my projection to $480-$500mil domestic.

 

Only from a certain point of view one I don't share.

The good man that was Anakin Skywalker was seduced by the dark side of the force and became Darth Vader.

I'll grant you there was non suited Vader time from the betrayal of Mace and the Jedi Order through the being put in the suit which delivered scowling mean mugging and dicey line delivery. If you think that was delivering then good on you, you are entitled to your opinion.

I don't know what criteria you are using but Luke was powerful and profound in presentation for me and the best the character has ever been performed by a sizable margin.

 

I'll grant you that many share your view when it comes to Vader's portrayal in ROTS. At the same time, many share my view that what they did to Luke's character in TLJ was an abomination.

 

I agree with you 100%. Solo has a lot going against it. Coming so soon after The Last Jedi it will have to deal with that backlash. If the film is bad and it is dealing with that backlash it could get ugly for Solo...Of coarse I hope Solo is a great film (having Ron Howard on board is a big plus) but I have a feeling that no matter how good the film is it’s going to have a hard time winning back fans who feel burned by The Last Jedi.

Just like you I know a lot of fans who “just don’t care” after TLJ. It seems that tptb just don’t care about our (the original fans) Star Wars as their killing off Han and Luke as soon as they possibly could proves. I’m convinced that treating those iconic characters the way they did is going to hurt the franchise going forward + Solo may be where you start to see concrete proof of that.

 

I think Solo will be a good movie (Lawrence Kasdan, Ron Howad, ...), but the fact is that nobody really wanted this movie to be made (there was more enthousiasm for Rogue One then for Solo when the movies where announced).

My BO-predictions for Solo: around $800.000.000 in total.

 

I think it'll be lucky to hit 800m worldwide.

I'm intrigued to see how the China box offices numbers turn out given Disney have ditched the Star Wars name. Anything could happen.