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OFFICIAL NEWS Star Wars: The Last Jedi Made $417M In Profit

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi' started by DailyPlunge, Mar 28, 2018.

  1. deadmanwalkin009

    deadmanwalkin009 Rebel Official

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    Fair points about toys but TLJ doing "poorly" in the States isn't a factor why it's doing bad in China. It's a cultural thing. In the US, there are at least 4 generations of SW fans and it practically ingrained in our culture. China doesn't have that much less a generation that grew up on SW. Japan loves SW and sometimes have cool stuff that isn't offered in the States an example. My question is, how well did other SW movies do in China? Also those experts isn't more accurate than the weather man, maybe some were being too aggressive with their numbers, ever thought about that? If the weatherman can misjudge weather, i'm sure financial analysts can miss their mark from time to time. As I quoted the Deadline article which is just as legit as the Wall Street Journal. We're essentially arguing about a home run that hit a light post or scoreboard in the stadium rather than landing in the parking lot.

    Also Black Panther made more domestically than Jurassic World and did more Globally than Frozen. With the logic people are using against TLJ, both Jurassic World and Frozen did worse than expected. Not to mention that Black Panter is more culturally important than SW which SW will never have and Black Panther was release on Black History Month not to mention he was already featured in Civil War which added to the hype.
     
    #61 deadmanwalkin009, Apr 3, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2018
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  2. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Rebel General

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    Your "alternate take" is not a logical deduction of the original statement.

    Please show a legit source claiming that the film met analyst expectations.
    --- Double Post Merged, Apr 3, 2018, Original Post Date: Apr 3, 2018 ---
    Yes, I understand that China doesn't love Star Wars the way Amreica does, but I think you're focusing so hard on the trees that you can't see the forest. A line about Star Wars doing poorly in China does nothing to undermine the fact that it underperformed globally relative to pre-release expectations.
    That is not even remotely a logical deduction of anything I have ever said. TLJ was profitable, but underperformed relative to expectations. Both statements can be true.

    I just don't understand why so many people have to deny this with such a religious fervor. It's like admitting that forecasts were too high would somehow diminish their enjoyment of the film. For some reason, they have to believe everything is peachy keen in the GFFA and TLJ did as well as everyone predicted.
     
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  3. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi Commander

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    Here's what we know: Star Wars: The Last Jedi made $417 in profit. It was the most profitable film of 2017. The film by any rational measure is a success. The only people complaining about the box office are people who hated the film. It's almost impossible to talk about this subject reasonably with someone in the "hyperbole camp."

    It seems clear that Disney and Lucasfilm are happy with the end result.
     
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  4. SWSturm

    SWSturm Rebel Trooper

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    I do believe it was closer to $226 million after all was said and done. There's a very good analysis out there that I don't have the link to right now.
     
  5. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi Commander

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    What's wrong with Deadline's analysis?
     
  6. BobRoss

    BobRoss Guest

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    There are two things that are important when talking about the SW netprofit. The first thing is interest rates. Assuming that Disney has a 5% interest rate (which would be average) and their initial investment was 4Bn then they would have to earn more than 600Mio/year just to cover the interest rates. The second thing is that the profits made by SW movies are far less important than selling merchandise which isn't doing very well after TLJ.

    "Panjiva, a data company that tracks the giant shipping containers that arrive at U.S. ports, says 6,587 of them with Star Wars gear were shipped in the seven months leading up to The Last Jedi, but that’s down 47 percent from the seven months leading to Rogue One in 2016 and off 56  percent from the same time period ahead of The Force Awakens in 2015."

    Disney doesn't seem to care much about their "old" fans. Disney deliberately risks estranging them putting all their money on a new generation of SW fans... TLJ is many things, but it's far from meeting expectations which is why every single analyst I could find online overestimated TLJ's sucess by at least 200 Mio.
     
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  7. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi Commander

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    I'm an old fan who love The Last Jedi.

    I have to admit. It's amazing watching people twist themselves into pretzels trying to spin how $400 million dollars in profit is a bad thing. Interest rates is a new one.
     
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  8. BobRoss

    BobRoss Guest

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    I'm not spinning 400 Mio into a bad thing, I am merely putting it into context. If you earn 1000$ a month but your family needs 2000$ to survive 1000$ won't cut it. Just like 400 Mio won't cover a 600Mio interest rate. This is exactly why TLJ underperformed.
     
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  9. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi Commander

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    Your context is a complete hypothetical math equation involving interest rates. So yeah, that's spin.
     
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  10. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Rebel General

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    Comparing profit to current rates of interest (i.e. cost of money) is standard in the business world. When a company invests millions (or billions) of dollars, they look very hard at the opportunity cost of their investment. If an investment cannot outperform a standard interest rate then it is considered a bad investment.

    (Please note I am not saying Star Wars is unprofitable for Disney nor am I denying that TLJ was profitable, I am just affirming that companies do indeed look very hard at the cost of money when evaluating investment decisions. That applies whether they are borrowing money or investing their own)
     
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  11. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi Commander

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    No one is disputing how business works. This interest rate discussion is completely hypothetical because it's based on unknown data and an assumptions about the specific interest rate.
     
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  12. Andrew Waples

    Andrew Waples Jedi General

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    A more appropriate comparison would be like a pro team winning their championship, getting to their title game in the next year, but losing in said title game. The latter is still a tremendous accomplishment, but its not the same level of success as the year before. If anyone thought TLJ was gonna outpace TFA, you're crazy. TFA had tidal wave of circumstances to help it be number one all time domestic. Regardless, Star Wars is in a good place financially.
     
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  13. BobRoss

    BobRoss Guest

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    Well they bought the SW IP for 4Bn $ which is a well known fact. Interest rates in this buisness are 5% on average. Even if they were significantly lower the netprofit would barely cover the interest rates. So it's pretty save to say that the movie alone didn't cover the interest rate. Of course there's always toys but as I already stated earlier Disney sells significantly less merchandise than they did when TFA came out. Is this the end of the world for Disney? Absolutely not. But they should definitely rethink their strategy moving forward especially when considering their core audience is and who's buying most of the merchandise.
    --- Double Post Merged, Apr 14, 2018, Original Post Date: Apr 14, 2018 ---
    Of course it is, it's Star Wars. You can sell literally anything with these two words printed on it. But there are trends indicating a rapid decline in merch sales, audience approval and BO and if Disney wants maintain a profitable franchise for decades to come then KK should have a closer look at what Kevin Feige is doing rather than putting blind faith in RJ's questionable talent to produce a SW movie.
     
    #73 BobRoss, Apr 14, 2018
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  14. Andrew Waples

    Andrew Waples Jedi General

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    Based on one movie? Marvel has what how many films now?:rolleyes:
     
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  15. BobRoss

    BobRoss Guest

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    TFA performed better than expected (which is good), R1 performed almost exactly like predicted (which is good) and TLJ fell short 200 Mio $ of the worst case scenario proposed by analysts (which is bad). TLJ is the first Disney era SW movie with mediocre ratings all across the internet including many small movie websites all over Europe. TLJ screenings were cancelled after less than 3 weeks in China, the second biggest movie market in the world. TLJ started with a 90% BO opening compared to TFA (even though it didn't start during the holiday season) but ended up making only 60% of the overall BO of TFA which can be attributed to the quickest drop in BO of any SW movie ever. Last but not least there's a drastic drop in merchandise sales after TLJ. These are a lot fo red flags that should be taken into consideration moving forward.
     
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  16. Andrew Waples

    Andrew Waples Jedi General

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    Again, Marvel has how many movies? They only have 3 in the top ten all time domestic. One standalone Black Panther and two their flagship Avengers movies. I'm not sure where the rest are. I think you're over exaggerating when you compare Star Wars to other IP like Marvel.
     
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  17. BobRoss

    BobRoss Guest

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    MCU movies have had a fantastically stable performance over multiple years. The trend clearly indicates that the MCU is constantly making more money per movie. Overall, the franchise has 3 movies that earned more than TLJ and another two movies that came damn close to TLJ's BO. MCU movies become more profitable as the franchise moves on while SW sees exactly the opposite trend. Feige built up a dedicated and steadily growing MCU fandom over the years while KK is currently losing SW fans. I'm also pretty confident that "Avengers: Infinity War" will outperform Avengers 1 making the sequel more succesful than its predecessor. Again selling a SW movie is a nobrainer. It's not that the TLJ BO is bad per se. It's the multiple negative trends that started with TLJ which are worrisome.
     
  18. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi Commander

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    It's difficult to have a rational discussion about this topic when people start throwing around phrases like "worse case scenario" to describe TLJ's box office.
    This guy at Forbes basically predicted the domestic box office within $20 million dollars. He just based it on typical drop-off for middle chapters. Also, that wasn't factoring in much stronger competition this time around. Jumanji is Sony's biggest US hit. It's kind of crazy how big of a film that turned out to be. The Last Jedi did very well. It's another hit for Disney. That's the only logical narrative for a film that made $400 in profit before video sales.
     
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  19. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Rebel General

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    Thanks for the link to that article. I hadn't seen it before. I don't think you actually read your own link though because it completely disproves much of what you have been arguing.

    The article (which came out before TLJ's release) states: "As of now, conventional wisdom suggests an opening weekend of around $215 million and a final total of around $750m in North America." While the opening weekend estimate was very accurate, this conventional wisdom projection completely overshot the final total. The current domestic (US + Canada) run is $620 million. If we want to look at North America we add in Mexico's $14 million giving a North America total of $634. TLJ was over $100 million short of what your own article claims was the convention wisdom projection.

    The writer's prediction of $655 million is, by how own admission, the "pessimistic" prediction. He also states TLJ would do better than that if it was a crowd-pleaser. Instead, TLJ fell well short of the conventional wisdom and even fell short of the most pessimistic pre-release projection.

    Thank you for providing an article I hadn't seen but reinforces everything I've been saying about TLJ: It was profitable, but still fell short of expectations. Your own article proves it fell well short of the conventional wisdom, and even fell short of the most pessimistic prediction.
     
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  20. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi Commander

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    I'll post this quote since reading comprehension sometimes leaves something to be desired.

    This guy can pat himself on the back. The movie was well received by audience and critics, but it dropped the standard 30%. It makes sense. Not everyone loved The Force Awakens or Star Wars. Some who were curious didn't continue watching and some fans like myself (I saw TFA 5 times) only saw TLJ 3 times. In hindsight, if some projections were higher they simply weren't realistic.
     
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