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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Opening Weekend Pulls in $176M Domestic $374M Global

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker' started by SWNN Probe, Dec 22, 2019.

  1. SWNN Probe

    SWNN Probe Seeker

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    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker was released worldwide this weekend. The movie pulled in an estimated $176m in the United States and totaled $374m globally. Variety and Forbes each have well thought out breakdowns of what these numbers mean from an industry perspective. But to put it simply, the film is flying a bit low for a Skywalker but putting up numbers most others would drool over.





    What is causing the lower turnout for the last installment of the Skywalker Saga? It could be any number of factors and no one can know for sure.  It could be due to the mixed critical reception which currently has the film standing at just 57% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes? It could be a reduction in demand from hard core fans after The Last Jedi left critics pleased but fans divided. But likely the factor of most impact is a franchise low B+ Cinemascore rating. Because Cinemascore polls a random selection of proven viewers as they leave the theater, it is often treated as an industry standard to measure audience sentiment and potential impacts to word of mouth recommendations. And although a B+ might sound good for a high school history class, that is a strikingly low score for a big budget blockbuster like The Rise of Skywalker.



    What impact will the low Cinemascore rating have on the overall totals for The Rise of Skywalker? That remains to be seen. The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi each scored an A rating and legged out totals well over $1 billion worldwide. Solo came in at an A- and showed much lesser returns. On the positive side, the audience rating on Rotten Tomatoes currently stands at 86%.  The self-selective audience rating scores are usually attributed more to hard core fans. These are the types of fans who also have a tendency to return for multiple viewings of a movie, which could lead to stronger legs than might be expected based on the Cinemascore rating.



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    More than any other Star Wars release, it is really hard to predict what will happen from here. The low critic/high audience Rotten Tomatoes score is unprecedented for this franchise.  Historically those scores have either been in relative alignment or the audience score has been lower than the critics. A Cinemascore below an A- is also unprecedented and could lead to a 'wait for Disney+' type of word of mouth impact. One thing that can be at least somewhat confidently predicted is that The Rise of Skywalker is likely to break the franchise's streak of the third film in a trilogy outperforming the second while not reaching the heights of the first.  It would take a significant break from normal patterns for this film to exceed The Last Jedi's total haul.



    But it is also important to remember that all of these negatives are on a scale relative to the historic blockbusters that came before. This is not a Solo sized disappointment. The opening weekend totals for The Rise of Skywalker are still huge and if the movie doesn't completely collapse during the lucrative holiday season, it will likely be the fourth film of the Disney era to soar to over $1B world wide. The Mouse House's investment is quite secure and The Rise of Skywalker coming in a bit below expectations will not likely slow down the next era of Star Wars that we expect to come over the next few years.





    Stay tuned to SWNN as we continue to update you on Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker's run at the box office.





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    #1 SWNN Probe, Dec 22, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2020
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  2. Daddy_Stardust

    Daddy_Stardust Rebel Commander

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    There is no right Star Wars can do to be honest. Was discussing with a friend on whether a Rogue One (a 2 billion-earning spin-off) could ever happen again and he felt not; Force Awakens was so huge because the prequels were so unsatisfying to many people. Yet Force Awakens was, for better or worse, a far too safe and recycled story. Rogue One rode its wave of "Star Wars is back baby!" but if released now would probably never pull in the numbers it did before (and this is from someone whose favourite Star Wars movie is actually Rogue One).

    In showing my ex-girlfriend the series in chronological order, and as much as I like TFA, in watching 4,5,6 then 7 in that direct oder, you really feel the redundancy of its story. It makes sense when you watch 456, 123, and THEN 7 and understand it from a business perspective analysing a 40 year franchise that it was basically an antidote to the prequels, but 6 into 7 isn't terrible strong as a narrative between two films.

    Many fans didn't like TLJ (I did, but thats beside the point) and the fanbase is almost unified in believing The Mandalorian is incredible and one of the best Star Wars instalments ever (and I agree).

    But what would a Mandalorian movie do at the box-office? Probably nothing better than Solo, if even that.

    I think that we just need to accept that Star Wars is beloved and should never leave our screens, but that there's not necessarily a right answer to it being a ground-breaker at the box-office anymore (that's not to say it can't do well, but it doesn't *have* to be ground-breaking). I think Disney+ and TV series are the perfect answer to keeping it alive for future generations; what can be done even on a TV budget now is incredible. I'm far happier to see long-running stories of smaller impact in the GFFA than needing movies that have all the pressure of ESB in 1980 to transcend pop-culture and be the defining movie of a generation with twists and turns that shock people forever.

    Let's just have fun in this galaxy with the incredible moving-making tech we have nowadays even on a TV budget rather than having to break box office records. To the true fans, wondering if that's Boba Fett's spurs clinking at the end of episode 6 of the Mandalorian are every bit as impactful as Palpatine returning for The Rise of Skywalker.

    And don't get me wrong, I enjoyed The Rise of Skywalker, took my son on Friday and the audience actually applauded, I'm just hoping our beloved series doesn't fall victim to bureaucratic box office results and predictions. You don't need to spend half a billion on a Star Wars movie when us fans are delighted with an 8 part streaming series that just explores its world organically.
     
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  3. Josh

    Josh Rebel Official

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    quite a drop from 450m estimate last week from deadline .
     
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