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SPECULATION The Force Awakens Box Office Predictions Here Please!

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' started by Lego Han, Nov 17, 2015.

?

Will TFA be the first movie to take $3 Billion Worlwide?

  1. Yes

    28 vote(s)
    53.8%
  2. No

    24 vote(s)
    46.2%
  1. Lego Han

    Lego Han Rebel Official

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    OK I'm going to call it that TFA takes:

    Domestic (US) Box Office - $630 Million

    Worldwide Box Office - $2.4 Billion

    By way of comparison (from Box Office Mojo):

    Domestic
    1 Avatar - $760,507,625
    2 Titanic - $658,672,302
    3 Jurassic World - $652,177,271
    4 Marvel's The Avengers - $623,357,910
    5 The Dark Knight - $534,858,444 2008
    6 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace - $474,544,677
    7 Star Wars - $460,998,007
    8 Avengers: Age of Ultron - $459,005,868
    9 The Dark Knight Rises - $448,139,099
    10 Shrek 2 - $441,226,247

    Worldwide ($ Billions)
    1 Avatar - $2,788.0
    2 Titanic - $2,186.8
    3 Jurassic World - $1,668.9
    4 Marvel's The Avengers - $1,519.6
    5 Furious 7 - $1,514.8
    6 Avengers: Age of Ultron - $1,405.0
    7 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $1,341.5
    8 Frozen - $1,276.5
    9 Iron Man 3 - $1,215.4
    10 Minions - $1,156.7
     
  2. BamBoosle-8

    BamBoosle-8 Force Sensitive

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    That seems about right only I think that TFA is going to surpass Jurassic World in the US box office
     
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  3. Addi Ras

    Addi Ras MASTER TEA MAKER
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    is that adjusted figure because Imax 3d & normal 3d tickets are more expensive than when avatar came out so Iam going for

    $700,000,00 US

    $300,000,100 World Wide
     
  4. KOBRAkon

    KOBRAkon Rebel General

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    I think it will be really close to $3 billion and at the very least surpass Avatar. The thing Avatar had going for it was that almost everyone who saw it in theaters, watched it in 3d! That's double the ticket right there. TFA will be the first movie since Avatar where most people seeing it will want Imax over standard which will help it reach the mark!
     
  5. Lego Han

    Lego Han Rebel Official

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    Just for reference, Box Office Mojo have a top 10 list of domestic movies with their takings adjusted for inflation. To beat the original Star Wars movie TFA would have to take $1.5 Billion just in the US market :eek::eek::eek:

    The current top 10 is:

    1 - Gone with the Wind - $1,685,052,200
    2 - Star Wars - $1,485,517,400
    3 - The Sound of Music - $1,187,744,200
    4 - E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial - $1,183,065,200
    5 - Titanic - $1,129,857,100
    6 - The Ten Commandments - $1,092,540,000
    7 - Jaws - $1,068,177,300
    8 - Doctor Zhivago - $1,035,289,700
    9 - The Exorcist - $922,397,100
    10 - Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs - $909,060,000
     
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  6. DarthLevskarious

    DarthLevskarious Rebelscum

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    I have a good feeling that it will surpass Avatar in US and Canada and make around $800 million. World wide is really hard to predict. It depends how good the movie is. My pessimistic guess is $2 billion and the optimistic one - $2.9.
     
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  7. DaveOlden

    DaveOlden Rebel Official

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    Are you seriously predicting 2.9 billion dollars?!

    That's nuts!

    Now, if you had said 2.891 billion, yeah, sure, that's easy. But 2.9?!

    Gee, I can't believe some people... :rolleyes:
     
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  8. HAL'sgal

    HAL'sgal Force Sensitive

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  9. Solo

    Solo Rebel Official

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    To put a potential December opening of $200m+ in perspective: the highest December opening currently stands at $84m thanks to the Hobbit in 2012.
     
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  10. AstromechRecords

    AstromechRecords Jedi General

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    TFA has OFFICIALLY made roughly $50,000,000 from the time that the tickets went on sale. From December 16th, 2015 - December 18th, 2015 (territories outside of The US), TFA WILL make roughly $175,000,000. December 18th, 2015 - January 15th, 2015 (USA), TFA WILL make $950,000,000. January 15th, 2015 - (at least) May 2016, $1,500,000,000. May 2016 - July 2016, $150,000,000.

    ALSO, I can see LFL mirroring ANH's original re-release timeline, and re-release TFA in FALL 2015, where TFA will make another $900,000,000 in 3 weeks in order to push up against The Awards' Season for 2017 since it's being avoided for The 2016 Oscars Season.

    TOTAL: $2,825,000,000

    "Avatar" did it :).
     
    #10 AstromechRecords, Nov 20, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2015
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  11. Addi Ras

    Addi Ras MASTER TEA MAKER
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    it`s already taken 50 million dollars (32 million pounds) in pre sales here in the uk. a third of which were imax to put that in perspective the previous record was 16 million pounds for Dark Knight Rises

    opps my mistake that's us market so it was yahoo uk movie site & quted pound so mistakenly thougth it was uk domestick thanks to yoda 2 & astromaticrecords for providing proper research
     
    #11 Addi Ras, Nov 20, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2015
  12. AfroJedi69

    AfroJedi69 Rebel Official

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    As long as it beats Avatar....always hated that film!!
     
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  13. DaveOlden

    DaveOlden Rebel Official

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    Note that, according to the Hollywood Reporter, that number represent the US Domestic market (US+Canada).

    A minimum revenue of $100M (so far) plus presales for the rest of the world plus 27 more days of pre-sales plus traditional opening weekend sales at the door...

    I think a $300 million opening weekend is a conservative estimate!
     
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  14. AstromechRecords

    AstromechRecords Jedi General

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    yes, which is why I think that TFA will reach NEARLY $3 BILLION and will ABSOLUTELY MURDER The Home Box Office.
     
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  15. Kuroth Wain

    Kuroth Wain Rebel General

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  16. AstromechRecords

    AstromechRecords Jedi General

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  17. Kuroth Wain

    Kuroth Wain Rebel General

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    I saw your post, was just adding to the fire :)

     
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  18. AstromechRecords

    AstromechRecords Jedi General

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    fire is good...especially for this good, southern California freeze warning. ;).
     
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  19. DaveOlden

    DaveOlden Rebel Official

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    Yeah, after seeing these reports coming in for what pre-sales have done, I've had to up my guesses.

    Note: My $300 million estimate above is a Worldwide estimate. And I'm including all advance ticketed screenings ahead of the 18th (which is how they normally report weekends).

    @AstromechRecords , I generally agree with your $3 Billion estimate.
    But I'm going to play safe, and lean conservative for my prediction:
    Ready? Here we go...
    Oh, to even share in 0.01% of that!
     
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  20. AstromechRecords

    AstromechRecords Jedi General

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    I would add worldwide, which i did not: $950,000,000.00 - $1,500,000,000.00 opening weekend combining all opening weekends worldwide. Total 1st run: $2,500,000,000.00. Total 2nd re-release for Awards Season: $500,000,000.00.
     
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