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The Rian Johnson Thread

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi' started by Viral Hide, Sep 4, 2014.

  1. Darth Basin The Greatest

    Darth Basin The Greatest Rebel Official

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    I think RJ's Knives Out will flop. Not because i dislike TLJ. It's because it premieres a week after the most anticipated animated sequel ever.

    Frozen 2.

    K O will be lucky to break even despite having an all star cast.
     
  2. RoyleRancor

    RoyleRancor Jedi General

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    That's not how box office works.
    At all.

    Frozen 2 has a wildly different demographic than Knives Out.
    It's counter programming.

    It's estimated budget is around $40 million so the general rule is doubling that at $80m to break even.

    The cross section of people who will see Frozen 2 in theaters and Knives out is very small. It's mostly parents.
    Very little crossover elsewhere so it's very unlikely to have this issue.

    This isn't an Aquaman/Bumblebee/Poppins situation where they kind of cannibalized themselves domestically.
     
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  3. Darth Basin The Greatest

    Darth Basin The Greatest Rebel Official

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    Yes. Yes. I just don't see it doing well. Especially during holiday time.
     
  4. RoyleRancor

    RoyleRancor Jedi General

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    If anything, the holidays and any potential awards buzz will help it. It's ideal counter programming to Frozen 2.
    If Knives Out struggles at the BO it will be from lack of existing IP (practically a death nail in 2019 American cinema) and a robust budget for a film without an attached IP.

    If a movie like this cracks 80 million (it's supposed break even point) then it's a home run. These movies are pretty rare in terms of making big bucks. Maybe one or two a year really make big bucks and a lot of those are on smaller budgets.
     
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