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SPECULATION The Rise of Skywalker Box Office Predictions

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker' started by DarthSnow, Oct 22, 2019.

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Which records will The Rise of Skywalker break at the Box Office?

Poll closed Dec 22, 2019.
  1. Top Opening Weekend (current: Endgame, $357.11 mil )

    9 vote(s)
    15.0%
  2. Top December Opening (current: TFA, $247.97 mil )

    25 vote(s)
    41.7%
  3. Highest Percentage of Box Office take (current: TFA, 52.0% )

    15 vote(s)
    25.0%
  4. Highest Grossing Film of All-Time (current: Endgame, $2.8 billion)

    2 vote(s)
    3.3%
  5. It won't break any records.

    27 vote(s)
    45.0%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. DarthSnow

    DarthSnow Master of Coin
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    [​IMG]

    Star Wars is and always has been more than just a movie. And when there's a new one coming out, it's an event.

    This thread is for general chatter and speculation on the performance of Star Wars - Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker at the Box Office.

    Will it break records? Will it have legs? How much of a chunk will it take from its competition at the BO?


    **UPDATE**
    Submit guesses by the end of the day on Tuesday, Dec. 17th to be eligible for one-of-a-kind Cantina Trophies!


    All-time top global highest grossing films:
    tGrAT.PNG

    Top December opening weekend percentages of box office take by a single film:
    swBOopper.PNG

    Top December Opening Weekends:
    t10owDEC.PNG

    All-Time Top Opening Weekends:
    t20OWall.PNG


    source: boxofficemojo.com
    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/
    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month...th&month=12&sort=titlegross&order=DESC&p=.htm
    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=12&p=.htm
    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/
     
    #1 DarthSnow, Oct 22, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2019
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  2. Bluemilk

    Bluemilk I AM the Senate

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    I'd say it will beat Endgame
     
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  3. Addi Ras

    Addi Ras Jedi General
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    #3 Addi Ras, Oct 22, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2019
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  4. DarthSnow

    DarthSnow Master of Coin
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    I almost forgot about that, good reminder!

    I have it picked to break all the records except top-grossing of all time.
    Not super confident about it usurping Endgame's opening weekend, but pre-sale tickets have been a good sign so far, so I'm optimistic.

    I do think it will at least crack $300mil on opening weekend though.
     
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  5. Anubis78

    Anubis78 Cantina's Mad-Hatter
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    I am hoping for about 325, I think a Endgame number is almost to high to set. I would love to see it smash it.
     
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  6. Darth Wardawg

    Darth Wardawg Force Sensitive

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    I'm a little more pessimistic than ya'll. I just want it to hit about $1.5 billion (or more). At this point it is hard to say. I'd love for it to smash records and beat Endgame (which I liked but I didn't think was as great as some made it out to be).

    I'll say $200 million opening weekend. Anything above it and I'll be impressed.
     
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  7. Kato Sai

    Kato Sai Jedi Commander

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    You are not pessimistic, simply conservative and cautious. Marks of a true Sith Lord. :;)
     
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  8. Flyboy

    Flyboy Force Attuned

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    Unfortunately I don't think it'll break any of these records. MAYBE it has a shot at highest percentage of box office take, December, with the exception of Jumanji looks incredibly dry.
     
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  9. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    I don't think The Rise of Skywalker can even come close to the worldwide box office of Avengers: Endgame. Star Wars just isn't anywhere near as popular in China, and that is a huge factor. As for North America (domestic), The Force Awakens is tops on that list with Endgame second. I don't think TRoS can catch TFA on that list either. I do think it will place very high on both lists though.

    My original prediction for The Rise of Skywalker was $700,000,000 domestic / $1.4 worldwide, but after the trailer and the promising reports from Atom, I will definitely need to revise that upward, just not sure by how much yet.
     
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  10. Shadowblade

    Shadowblade Clone Commander

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    It will probably end up somewhere between SOLO and TLJ. Around a billion or slightly less world-wide I should guess.
     
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  11. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    I got 4000 credits that say The Rise of Skywalker makes more than The Last Jedi domestically and another 3500 that it will break one billion worldwide.
     
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  12. The Last Jorgny

    The Last Jorgny Rebel Official

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    I am very curious to see if it will make more or less than The Last Jedi. I have very little experience in watching box office numbers and stuff, but is it possible that it could outperform it? I don't know how much the general audience cares that it's the "Final Chapter" and everything but for me it seems like something that will pull some people to the cinema. I don't feel like there is a lot of competition this christmas either.
     
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  13. Maximus

    Maximus Reel 2 Dialogue 2

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    I went with the December all time record. 357m is a fruppin ridiculously high number, and i don't expect to see it beaten (never say never though.. Avatar 2 may have a sniff if it looks decent)

    I suspect the total worldwide figure will get close to TFA.. maybe just sneak by it.
     
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  14. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    Going to take my prediction a little higher and say $750,000,000 / $1.5 but I may increase it again between now and December.

    It will take me a little longer to come up with an idea of the opening weekend.
     
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  15. Addi Ras

    Addi Ras Jedi General
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    I certainly think around $1.7 Billion World wide is possible.
     
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  16. Stefynoseu

    Stefynoseu Rebel General

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    I think it will beat TLJ, but it won't beat Avengers End Game. I wasn't able to get a ticket for opening night for endgame. I had no problem getting one for opening night of TROS.
     
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  17. Jedi77-83

    Jedi77-83 Force Sensitive

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    Every SW Trilogy has had a similar trajectory regarding Box Office:

    1. ANH
    2. ROTJ
    3. ESB

    1. TPM
    2. ROTS
    3. AOTC

    1. TFA
    2. TLJ

    If the ST continues the trend, TROS should beat TLJ but won’t come close to TFA. If TROS makes less than TLJ then it will be the 1st SW Trilogy to have downward trend after each movie.

    I want to see a few more weeks of Pre-Ticket sales before I give my prediction.
     
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  18. Rodney-2187

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    I’ll bet every credit have have that TRoS beats TLJ. And that’s no slam on TLJ. I love TLJ. I’ll change my avatar to a pink jar-jar if TRoS doesn’t break a billion worldwide. This movie is going to be huge.

    I don’t see it touching Endgame worldwide, but if all goes well, it could surpass Endgame in North America. That’s the extreme height of its potential though. All the stars would have to align.
     
    #18 Rodney-2187, Oct 25, 2019
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 25, 2019
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  19. Kato Sai

    Kato Sai Jedi Commander

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    You will be held to that Pink Jar Jar pledge. :p
     
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  20. Meister Yoda

    Meister Yoda Your Little Green Friend

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    A bold move that is @Pink Jar Jar
     
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