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SPECULATION The Rise of Skywalker Box Office Predictions

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker' started by DarthSnow, Oct 22, 2019.

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Which records will The Rise of Skywalker break at the Box Office?

This poll will close on Dec 22, 2019 at 1:25 PM.
  1. Top Opening Weekend (current: Endgame, $357.11 mil )

  2. Top December Opening (current: TFA, $247.97 mil )

  3. Highest Percentage of Box Office take (current: TFA, 52.0% )

  4. Highest Grossing Film of All-Time (current: Endgame, $2.8 billion)

  5. It won't break any records.

Multiple votes are allowed.
Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Jedi General

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    Updated predictions:

    Opening
    200 - @Darth Wardawg
    230 - @Rodney-2187
    250 - @Addi Ras
    255,382.32 - @Fearghas_Ajax
    260 - @Porco Azzurro
    265 - @Too Gon Onbourbon
    300 - @DarthSnow
    325 - @Anubis78

    Domestic
    725 - @Addi Ras
    750 - @Rodney-2187
    800 - @Porco Azzurro
    873028.82 - @Fearghas_Ajax
    925 - @Too Gon Onbourbon

    Worldwide
    980 - @Shadowblade
    1.5 - @Darth Wardawg
    1.5 - @Rodney-2187
    1.6 - @Too Gon Onbourbon
    1.7 - @Addi Ras
    1.7 - @Porco Azzurro
    1,923,138.80 - @Fearghas_Ajax
    --- Double Post Merged, Oct 28, 2019, Original Post Date: Oct 28, 2019 ---
    @Fearghas_Ajax you may want to adjust your decimal placement.
     
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  2. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Jedi General

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    Star Wars as Google Search interest is little up for the month from last month so far...but that's also boosted by the release of Mandalorian and Jedi Fallen Order.

    [​IMG]
    note: November isn't over yet

    https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2012-10-30 2019-11-17&geo=US&q=/m/06mmr
    https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2012-10-30 2019-11-17&q=/m/06mmr


    I've been thinking sub-TLJ BO pretty much for a long time. Though it will be closer on the domestic side than on the foreign side as I think the gap between the two will increase as the split comes closer to 50/50 parity.

    SW movie domestic % / foreign %
    SW:TFA 45.3% / 54.7%
    RO:ASWS 50.4% / 49.6%
    SW:TLJ 46.5% / 53.5%
    S:ASWS 54.4% / 45.6%
    SW:TROS TBD% / TBD%
     
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  3. Kato Sai

    Kato Sai Jedi Commander

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    5A2D4838-A9A2-42EB-B361-3192B80340D0.jpeg
     
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  4. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Jedi General

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  5. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi Commander

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    FWIW it's difficult to measure trailer views on YouTube against movies from even 5 years ago because people watch videos through multiple channel.

    I checked the Google Trend data and there's certainly less activity looking for information about The Rise of Skywalker the past month vs. the same period before The Last Jedi. That's certainly my own experience. There's other Star Wars stuff going on with The Mandalorian going on and less to speculate about the upcoming film.
     
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  6. Jedi77-83

    Jedi77-83 Force Sensitive

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    I predict a 190 million opening weekend, as I don’t believe it will equal TLJ box office.
     
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  7. Jedi77-83

    Jedi77-83 Force Sensitive

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    I would agree that comparing TFA vs TROS trailer views isn’t fair cause a lot has changed in the past 4-5 years on the way people view things. But comparing TLJ vs TROS is only 2 years so that’s more realistic as I was suprised TROS had roughly 1/2 the views. That’s why I have stood by my prediction that Episode 9 will not equal TLJ and this will be the 1st SW Trilogy where the box office decreased with each movie.
     
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  8. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Jedi General

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    Box Office Pro's SW long range tracking history:

    [​IMG]

    Sources:
    BoxOffice® — Long Range Forecast: 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'
    Long Range Forecast: ‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,’ ‘Collateral Beauty’ & ‘The Space Between Us’
    Long Range Forecast: 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi' & 'Ferdinand' - Boxoffice
    Long Range Tracking: 'Solo: A Star Wars Story' - Boxoffice
    Long Range Tracking: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Bombshell, and Cats - Boxoffice


    Star Wars is more frontloaded that other franchises when it comes to presales and Thursday Previews which means they do not multiply out as highly. Here's a table comparison.

    [​IMG]

    In terms of frontloadedness in general, Star Wars opening weekends are suppressed by the calendar (due to December) and the overall multiplier is inflated. Solo's opening weekend was inflated and its multiplier deflated by May in comparison.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Rogues1138

    Rogues1138 Jedi General

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    whatever happens, this hiatus or film sabbatical will give LFL time to rethink their marketing strategy. most likely Feige's film is on the horizon. If Stars WARS FAILS AT CHRISTMAS THAT WILL BE SHOCKING TO SAY THE LEAST. but it's in the cards. DISNEY+ IS priority now... long live Mando season 2 is coming... $174m opening weekend.
     
    #49 Rogues1138, Nov 17, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2019
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  10. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Jedi General

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    Updated predictions:

    Opening
    174 - @Rogues1138
    190 - @Jedi77-83
    200 - @Darth Wardawg
    230 - @Rodney-2187
    250 - @Addi Ras
    255,382.32 - @Fearghas_Ajax
    260 - @Porco Azzurro
    265 - @Too Gon Onbourbon
    300 - @DarthSnow
    325 - @Anubis78

    Domestic
    725 - @Addi Ras
    750 - @Rodney-2187
    800 - @Porco Azzurro
    873028.82 - @Fearghas_Ajax
    925 - @Too Gon Onbourbon

    Worldwide
    980 - @Shadowblade
    1.5 - @Darth Wardawg
    1.5 - @Rodney-2187
    1.6 - @Too Gon Onbourbon
    1.7 - @Addi Ras
    1.7 - @Porco Azzurro
    1,923,138.80 - @Fearghas_Ajax
     
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  11. DarthSnow

    DarthSnow Master of Coin
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    I think this SW film will be different in a couple aspects at the box office. It will have a big opening weekend, maybe not record-shattering but I think it's going to be pretty steady and consistent for many weeks. I think its going to have the kind of staying power that we haven't seen in a long time.
     
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  12. Darth Wardawg

    Darth Wardawg Force Sensitive

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    It very well could have some legs, especially if it is a great film. I don't think the opening weekend will break records either as I do think there is a bit of "wait and see" on the part of some fans. If the word of mouth is good, then the legs will be good.
     
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  13. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi Commander

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    1.2-1.5B worldwide seems to be what I'd predict. I'll have a better guess when the reviews start coming in before the release. I expect this film to more fun which will lead to longer legs, but if it's not a satisfying conclusion people won't want to rewatch it.
     
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  14. Darth Wardawg

    Darth Wardawg Force Sensitive

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    I would hope this will be more of a fun film with a good ending. If JJ really does stick the landing with IX then it could have legs and who knows where it will end up. If, however, he doesn't stick the landing... God help us.
     
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  15. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi Commander

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    I just checked the trend data again and it's starting to mirror The Last Jedi as we get closer to the release. This film has pushed the marketing towards the 2nd half of November so that's probably why they were different. Promoting Disney+ and The Mandalorian meant pushing off some marketing.
     
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  16. Josh

    Josh Rebel Official

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    It wont break any records, and wont beat the opening of TLJ.
    A Billion is a lock, but TLJ lifetime gross will be hard to reach imo


    The hype, compared to the two previous movies, just isnt there.
     
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  17. Bluemilk

    Bluemilk I AM the Senate

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    My opening weekend prediction

    TROS: 228 mil
     
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  18. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi Commander

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    It's debatable about the hype, but that generally only matters for the opening box office. The total box office depends on how excited fans are about the film itself. Is it good enough to get people to see it more than once? It's really difficult to answer that question before it comes out. If fans like the film then they'll go see it multiple times.

    I've noticed that many of my Star Wars fans friends who are casuals compared to me are suddenly excited about going to the next film after not really thinking about it for awhile.
     
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  19. KeithF1138

    KeithF1138 Rebel Official

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    I would expect that as TROS gets close. Us nuts get excited all along and then excited and impatient as we get close. Since TROS is a conclusion, if it is a good well put together fan and crowd pleaser it should do very well.
    --- Double Post Merged, Nov 26, 2019, Original Post Date: Nov 26, 2019 ---
    I am expecting that Disney/LFL will really push the see TROS immediately to avoid spoiling the ending as the release is a week or two away. Like they did with Avengers Endgame. Really stress you dont want to have ending ruined by other people.

    Really should work the classic Simpsons scene they used in the video they just put out to warn people about the Homers of the world and online. So the opening weekend could indeed be huge.
     
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  20. FN-3263827

    FN-3263827 Bendemptionist
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    i had absolutely zero hype going into TFA.
    i am hyped to distraction for Episode IX.

    it's all relative. : D
     
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