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SPECULATION The Rise of Skywalker Box Office Predictions

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker' started by DarthSnow, Oct 22, 2019.

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Which records will The Rise of Skywalker break at the Box Office?

Poll closed Dec 22, 2019.
  1. Top Opening Weekend (current: Endgame, $357.11 mil )

    9 vote(s)
    15.0%
  2. Top December Opening (current: TFA, $247.97 mil )

    25 vote(s)
    41.7%
  3. Highest Percentage of Box Office take (current: TFA, 52.0% )

    15 vote(s)
    25.0%
  4. Highest Grossing Film of All-Time (current: Endgame, $2.8 billion)

    2 vote(s)
    3.3%
  5. It won't break any records.

    27 vote(s)
    45.0%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. oldbert

    oldbert Jedi General

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    I could not resist to do this @Fearghas_Ajax :D

    OpWE
    255,382305
    Dom
    873, 0288105
    Ww
    1. 923,138785
     
    #61 oldbert, Nov 26, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2019
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  2. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Jedi General

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    Presales don't carry as far for Star Wars (don't multiply out) so comparing it directly to other non-SW movies is a bit of a fool's errand.

    Deadline: "‘Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker’ Seeing $205M+ Opening: Here’s Why" (November 27, 2019)
    Deadline: "As of 8AM, one tracking firm says $175M, but that seems low." (November 27, 2019)

    Deadline made the mistake of thinking Solo would open $170+M (four day) because its source probably made the mistake of comparing its presales to other non-SW movies and thinking it would multiply out the same when that just doesn't happen.
     
    #62 MagnarTheGreat, Nov 27, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2019
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  3. DarthSnow

    DarthSnow Master of Coin
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    I'm kinda curious if there will be a late marketing push. Something in February with a "this is your last chance to see Star Wars in theaters!" type of deal. I mean, we know it won't really be the last SW film. But they could play that angle for sure. And even if there isn't that kind of marketing, I'm sure many fans will see it again late in its run for that reason alone.
     
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  4. Bluemilk

    Bluemilk I AM the Senate

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    Variety is suddenly claiming the same thing according to Collider. That's it's tracking under $200 mil.
     
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  5. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Jedi General

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    I think if it wasn't a finale sequel (and if it was a routine sequel like TLJ) TROS would be opening even less than what it ultimately does.

    Variety - ‘Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker’ Could Score Massive $200 Million Opening Weekend

     
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  6. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi General

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    If the film is liked by fans it will likely do better at the box office than the middle film. That's the pattern with this series.

    Disney insiders are really quiet about the film so far. Disney liked TFA, RO, TLJ, and they knew there were issues with Solo. Keep an eye on the Twitter user ViewerAnon. He's usually close to things.
     
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  7. Disneylandfan4life

    Disneylandfan4life Rebel General

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    So if you are looking at social media activity numbers and people talking about it, it's way down from the hype for The Force Awakens. I don't think it will top that for the top December opening. It very well could as since it's the final in the Skywalker Saga people might not be wanting to talk about it much or view videos on Social Media as they fear being spoiled. But the numbers are considerably lower. That's usually been pretty telling with movie releases as to how well they'd do.
    --- Double Post Merged, Nov 29, 2019, Original Post Date: Nov 29, 2019 ---
    Still doesn't mean it might be the SECOND highest December opening. And I also agree that it will top a Billion. Just won't beat The Force Awakens for December Box Office. That's just my prediction =D
     
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  8. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    I updated the list with a few new entries. Only a few weeks away now. Come on everyone, make those predictions! It's all just for fun. Nobody really knows for sure.

    Domestic Opening

    174m - @Rogues1138
    190m - @Jedi77-83
    200m - @Darth Wardawg
    228m - @Bluemilk
    230m - @Rodney-2187
    250m - @Addi Ras
    255,382,305 - @oldbert
    *255,382.32 - @Fearghas_Ajax (Do you mean 255,382,320 ?)
    260m - @Porco Azzurro
    265m - @Too Gon Onbourbon
    300m - @DarthSnow
    325m - @Anubis78

    Domestic Total
    725m - @Addi Ras
    750m - @Rodney-2187
    800m - @Porco Azzurro
    *873, 0288105 - @oldbert (Do you mean 873,028,810.50 ?)
    *873028.82 - @Fearghas_Ajax (Do you mean 873,028,820 ?)
    925m - @Too Gon Onbourbon

    Worldwide Total
    980m - @Shadowblade
    *1.2b-1.5b - @DailyPlunge (More specific please?)
    1.5b - @Darth Wardawg
    1.5b - @Rodney-2187
    1.6b - @Too Gon Onbourbon
    1.7b - @Addi Ras
    1.7b - @Porco Azzurro
    1,923,138,785 - @oldbert
    *1,923,138.80 - @Fearghas_Ajax (Do you mean 1,923,138,800 ?)
     
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  9. Fearghas_Ajax

    Fearghas_Ajax Force Sensitive

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    Yea, not sure what happened there
     
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  10. oldbert

    oldbert Jedi General

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    Just make it

    OpWE
    255 Million
    Dom
    873 Million
    Ww
    1920 Million

    @Rodney-2187 :D

    Everything beyond the "Comma" was just for fun and because of @Fearghas_Ajax numbers.
     
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  11. FN-3263827

    FN-3263827 First Order CPS
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    227.5 opening
    871.3 domestic
    1.45 worldwide
     
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  12. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi General

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    I can't really get more specific thatn 1.2-15B simply because it requires a prediction about how the film is received. It's already December and we haven't heard a peep about what people think of the film. If the film gets so-so reviews from fans/critics it'll land around 1.2B. If it's a real crowd pleaser it should cruise into 1.6 pretty easily.
     
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  13. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    That's cool. It's just a complete guess really though, just for fun.

    I don't think we'll have a good idea of what it will do until we've actually seen it. If there's a surprising plot twist, or a great ending, the word-of-mouth could be extraordinary and the box office would explode. If not, then of course it could do less. There is a review embargo until just before the premiere, as it was for the other movies. Anything before that will just be marketing.

    So these predictions really just come down to a guess of how good of a job we think JJ did based on what we know so far.
     
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  14. Grummgar

    Grummgar Clone

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    I think it will have a record December opening weekend because of sheer inertia. I think the rest is dependent on the movie. If it is lackluster I think it beats the TLJ but falls well short of the TFA. If it hit it out of the park with audiences, I think it could match TFA and maybe strike at Endgame. If it is panned, I think it will fall off quickly but still make it over the 1 billion mark.
     
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  15. Palpatine was Framed

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    @Rodney-2187 I'll go with: Opening - 220m. Domestic - 770m. Worldwide - 1.35b.
     
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  16. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    Only 10 more days to make your predictions!
     
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  17. Travcon

    Travcon Rebel Official

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    $185 million opening weekend
    $700 million domestic
    $920 million total box office
     
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  18. Addi Ras

    Addi Ras Jedi General
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    Wow so TROS is only going to get $220 Million Internationally.
    That seems a little low.

    Also I going to slightly change my guesses
    Opening Weekend is now $225 Million
    Domestic Total $740 Million.
     
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  19. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    Everyone please check your numbers. I have been known to make mistakes, from time to time. (All the time.)

    Domestic Opening

    174m - @Rogues1138
    185m - @Travcon
    190m - @Jedi77-83
    200m - @Darth Wardawg
    220m - @Palpatine was Framed
    225m - @Addi Ras
    227.5m - @FN-3263827
    228m - @Bluemilk
    230m - @Rodney-2187
    255m - @oldbert
    255,382,320 - @Fearghas_Ajax
    260m - @Porco Azzurro
    265m - @Too Gon Onbourbon
    300m - @DarthSnow
    325m - @Anubis78

    Domestic Total
    700m - @Travcon
    740m - @Addi Ras
    750m - @Rodney-2187
    770m - @Palpatine was Framed
    800m - @Porco Azzurro
    871.3m - @FN-3263827
    873m - @oldbert
    873,028,820 - @Fearghas_Ajax
    925m - @Too Gon Onbourbon

    Worldwide Total
    920m - @Travcon
    980m - @Shadowblade
    1.35 - @Palpatine was Framed
    1.45b - @FN-3263827
    1.5b - @Darth Wardawg
    1.5b - @Rodney-2187
    1.6b - @Too Gon Onbourbon
    1.7b - @Addi Ras
    1.7b - @Porco Azzurro
    1.92b - @oldbert
    1,923,138,800 - @Fearghas_Ajax

    Other Predictions
    1.2b-1.5b - @DailyPlunge
     
    #79 Rodney-2187, Dec 8, 2019
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 8, 2019
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  20. Travcon

    Travcon Rebel Official

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    Mostly it’s the Chinese market has never been kind to SW.
     
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