SPECULATION The Rise of Skywalker Box Office Predictions

I could not resist to do this @Fearghas_Ajax

OpWE
255,382305
Dom
873, 0288105
Ww
1. 923,138785

 

Presales don't carry as far for Star Wars (don't multiply out) so comparing it directly to other non-SW movies is a bit of a fool's errand.

Deadline: "‘Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker’ Seeing $205M+ Opening: Here’s Why" (November 27, 2019)
Deadline: "As of 8AM, one tracking firm says $175M, but that seems low." (November 27, 2019)

Deadline made the mistake of thinking Solo would open $170+M (four day) because its source probably made the mistake of comparing its presales to other non-SW movies and thinking it would multiply out the same when that just doesn't happen.

 

Variety is suddenly claiming the same thing according to Collider. That's it's tracking under $200 mil.

 

I think if it wasn't a finale sequel (and if it was a routine sequel like TLJ) TROS would be opening even less than what it ultimately does.

Variety - ‘Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker’ Could Score Massive $200 Million Opening Weekend

 

If the film is liked by fans it will likely do better at the box office than the middle film. That's the pattern with this series.

Disney insiders are really quiet about the film so far. Disney liked TFA, RO, TLJ, and they knew there were issues with Solo. Keep an eye on the Twitter user ViewerAnon. He's usually close to things.

 

So if you are looking at social media activity numbers and people talking about it, it's way down from the hype for The Force Awakens. I don't think it will top that for the top December opening. It very well could as since it's the final in the Skywalker Saga people might not be wanting to talk about it much or view videos on Social Media as they fear being spoiled. But the numbers are considerably lower. That's usually been pretty telling with movie releases as to how well they'd do.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 29, 2019, Original Post Date: Nov 29, 2019 ---

Still doesn't mean it might be the SECOND highest December opening. And I also agree that it will top a Billion. Just won't beat The Force Awakens for December Box Office. That's just my prediction =D

 

I updated the list with a few new entries. Only a few weeks away now. Come on everyone, make those predictions! It's all just for fun. Nobody really knows for sure.

Domestic Opening
174m - @Rogues1138
190m - @Jedi77-83
200m - @Darth Wardawg
228m - @Bluemilk
230m - @Rodney-2187
250m - @Addi Ras
255,382,305 - @oldbert
*255,382.32 - @Fearghas_Ajax (Do you mean 255,382,320 ?)
260m - @Porco Azzurro
265m - @Too Gon Onbourbon
300m - @DarthSnow
325m - @Anubis78

Domestic Total
725m - @Addi Ras
750m - @Rodney-2187
800m - @Porco Azzurro
*873, 0288105 - @oldbert (Do you mean 873,028,810.50 ?)
*873028.82 - @Fearghas_Ajax (Do you mean 873,028,820 ?)
925m - @Too Gon Onbourbon

Worldwide Total
980m - @Shadowblade
*1.2b-1.5b - @DailyPlunge (More specific please?)
1.5b - @Darth Wardawg
1.5b - @Rodney-2187
1.6b - @Too Gon Onbourbon
1.7b - @Addi Ras
1.7b - @Porco Azzurro
1,923,138,785 - @oldbert
*1,923,138.80 - @Fearghas_Ajax (Do you mean 1,923,138,800 ?)

 

Yea, not sure what happened there

 

Just make it

OpWE
255 Million
Dom
873 Million
Ww
1920 Million

@Rodney-2187

Everything beyond the "Comma" was just for fun and because of @Fearghas_Ajax numbers.

 

227.5 opening
871.3 domestic
1.45 worldwide

 

I can't really get more specific thatn 1.2-15B simply because it requires a prediction about how the film is received. It's already December and we haven't heard a peep about what people think of the film. If the film gets so-so reviews from fans/critics it'll land around 1.2B. If it's a real crowd pleaser it should cruise into 1.6 pretty easily.

 

That's cool. It's just a complete guess really though, just for fun.

I don't think we'll have a good idea of what it will do until we've actually seen it. If there's a surprising plot twist, or a great ending, the word-of-mouth could be extraordinary and the box office would explode. If not, then of course it could do less. There is a review embargo until just before the premiere, as it was for the other movies. Anything before that will just be marketing.

So these predictions really just come down to a guess of how good of a job we think JJ did based on what we know so far.

 

I think it will have a record December opening weekend because of sheer inertia. I think the rest is dependent on the movie. If it is lackluster I think it beats the TLJ but falls well short of the TFA. If it hit it out of the park with audiences, I think it could match TFA and maybe strike at Endgame. If it is panned, I think it will fall off quickly but still make it over the 1 billion mark.

 

@Rodney-2187 I'll go with: Opening - 220m. Domestic - 770m. Worldwide - 1.35b.

 

Only 10 more days to make your predictions!

 

$185 million opening weekend
$700 million domestic
$920 million total box office

 

Everyone please check your numbers. I have been known to make mistakes, from time to time. (All the time.)

Domestic Opening
174m - @Rogues1138
185m - @Travcon
190m - @Jedi77-83
200m - @Darth Wardawg
220m - @Palpatine was Framed
225m - @Addi Ras
227.5m - @FN-3263827
228m - @Bluemilk
230m - @Rodney-2187
255m - @oldbert
255,382,320 - @Fearghas_Ajax
260m - @Porco Azzurro
265m - @Too Gon Onbourbon
300m - @DarthSnow
325m - @Anubis78

Domestic Total
700m - @Travcon
740m - @Addi Ras
750m - @Rodney-2187
770m - @Palpatine was Framed
800m - @Porco Azzurro
871.3m - @FN-3263827
873m - @oldbert
873,028,820 - @Fearghas_Ajax
925m - @Too Gon Onbourbon

Worldwide Total
920m - @Travcon
980m - @Shadowblade
1.35 - @Palpatine was Framed
1.45b - @FN-3263827
1.5b - @Darth Wardawg
1.5b - @Rodney-2187
1.6b - @Too Gon Onbourbon
1.7b - @Addi Ras
1.7b - @Porco Azzurro
1.92b - @oldbert
1,923,138,800 - @Fearghas_Ajax

Other Predictions
1.2b-1.5b - @DailyPlunge

 

Mostly it’s the Chinese market has never been kind to SW.