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SPECULATION The Rise of Skywalker Box Office Predictions

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker' started by DarthSnow, Oct 22, 2019.

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Which records will The Rise of Skywalker break at the Box Office?

Poll closed Dec 22, 2019.
  1. Top Opening Weekend (current: Endgame, $357.11 mil )

    9 vote(s)
    15.0%
  2. Top December Opening (current: TFA, $247.97 mil )

    25 vote(s)
    41.7%
  3. Highest Percentage of Box Office take (current: TFA, 52.0% )

    15 vote(s)
    25.0%
  4. Highest Grossing Film of All-Time (current: Endgame, $2.8 billion)

    2 vote(s)
    3.3%
  5. It won't break any records.

    27 vote(s)
    45.0%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Bluemilk

    Bluemilk I AM the Senate

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    I can't believe how close we are to the opening. But I won't get to see it until the 21st because of work.
     
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  2. KeithF1138

    KeithF1138 Force Sensitive

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    Makes no sense. Chinese market for Star Wars is usually next to nothing.

    TFA did over $1B International with next to nothing from China
    TLH did over $700M International with next to nothing from China
    TROS is going to do $220M International? Really?
     
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  3. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi General

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    FWIW the Google Trends data looks pretty good for TROS. The marketing has been much different this time around. Seems like after the Disney+ launch they really kicked it into high gear. The interest in the US is as high in search trends as it was before The Last Jedi at this stage in 2017.
     
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  4. Jedi77-83

    Jedi77-83 Force Sensitive

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    I want to give context as to why my prediction is one of the lowest regarding opening weekend. I feel the December 20th date that is so close to Christmas is pushing many fans to seeing it the 2nd weekend (or 2nd week) after Christmas when they have off from work. I have talked to many co-workers who are SW fans and none of them are seeing it the first weekend because of holiday shopping, christmas parties, kids getting done school, etc. I get the same response, "I'll probably see it the next weekend when things die down."

    I look at my local theaters and there are good seats still available for the first weekend, and it wasn't like that for TFA and TLJ. They added alot of shows in the days leading up to those movies to meet demand, but not for TROS. I still haven't bought tickets yet (my best friend and I have seen every SW movie together since 1997 SE on opening weekend), as we are still trying to figure out what time we want to see it trying to navigate work and family. The point is there is no fear that we will get shut out because of sold out shows.

    So I think TROS will have a better 2nd weekend then most blockbusters (the average blockbuster drops 60%), so it should make up the lower projected opening weekend after Christmas. So I'm sticking with 190 million opening weekend.
     
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  5. Addi Ras

    Addi Ras Jedi General
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    That’s a perfectly valid point & personally I’m always more interested in the overall takings & just because a film has a mega opening weekend doesn’t mean it’s going to be a record breaker in overall takings or even a popular film ( I’m looking at you SPECTRE This had the Highst U.K. Opening ever but it certainly isn’t my favourite & didn’t come close to. matching SKYFALL in overall taking).
     
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  6. Meister Yoda

    Meister Yoda Your Little Green Friend
    1030th Captain ** (Mod)

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    I just throw in my random but precise predictions:
    Opening $211m
    Domestic Total will be
    $700m
    And Worldwide Total I expect around $1.2b
     
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  7. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    Thanks for growing the list!


    Domestic Opening

    174m - @Rogues1138
    185m - @Travcon
    190m - @Jedi77-83
    200m - @Darth Wardawg
    211m - @Meister Yoda
    220m - @Palpatine was Framed
    225m - @Addi Ras
    227.5m - @FN-3263827
    228m - @Bluemilk
    230m - @Rodney-2187
    255m - @oldbert
    255,382,320 - @Fearghas_Ajax
    260m - @Porco Azzurro
    265m - @Too Gon Onbourbon
    300m - @DarthSnow
    325m - @Anubis78

    Domestic Total
    700m - @Meister Yoda
    700m - @Travcon
    740m - @Addi Ras
    750m - @Rodney-2187
    770m - @Palpatine was Framed
    800m - @Porco Azzurro
    871.3m - @FN-3263827
    873m - @oldbert
    873,028,820 - @Fearghas_Ajax
    925m - @Too Gon Onbourbon

    Worldwide Total
    920m - @Travcon
    980m - @Shadowblade
    1.2b - @Meister Yoda
    1.35b - @Palpatine was Framed
    1.45b - @FN-3263827
    1.5b - @Darth Wardawg
    1.5b - @Rodney-2187
    1.6b - @Too Gon Onbourbon
    1.7b - @Addi Ras
    1.7b - @Porco Azzurro
    1.92b - @oldbert
    1,923,138,800 - @Fearghas_Ajax

    Other Predictions
    1.2b-1.5b - @DailyPlunge
     
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  8. DarthSnow

    DarthSnow Master of Coin
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    Good looking list!!

    While this is all still mostly in good fun, we are going to come up with some special Cantina Trophies™ to dish out to the most accurate guessers.
    In case anyone else out there needs any incentive to join in.
    :D
     
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  9. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    @DarthSnow gonna make it rain!

    giphy (1).gif
     
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  10. Travcon

    Travcon Rebel Official

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    Can we redo our predictions? Based on the latest trailer I would have to up my projections substantially.
     
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  11. Quiller

    Quiller Rebelscum

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    Domestic Opening - $224,000,000
    Domestic Total - $852,000,000
    Worldwide - $1,640,000,000

    (Whichever way, that's some serious bunce!)
     
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  12. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    Yes, the Deadline is Tuesday, Dec. 17th.

    I will update the list between now and then as needed, and if no one else does I will post a final list Wednesday morning.
     
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  13. Travcon

    Travcon Rebel Official

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    $205 million Opening Weekend
    $850 million Domestic total
    $1.4 billion WW total
     
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  14. Palpatine was Framed

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    @Bluemilk, you're not looking so good. You look like you're coming down with the flu or something...
     
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  15. Rogues1138

    Rogues1138 Jedi General

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    So it's a five day opening weekend from Dec. 18-22nd? So Wednesday and Thursday for hardcore fans, and Friday to Sunday general audience?
     
    #95 Rogues1138, Dec 13, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2019
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  16. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    For the domestic opening, I think it's mainly showtimes starting around 5pm Thursday evening with Fri, Sat, and Sun being full days. The only thing on Wednesday is the marathon and that's only in a handful of theaters. It's a similar release to the other movies. In other countries it opens a day or so earlier, but I don't know the specifics.
     
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  17. Rogues1138

    Rogues1138 Jedi General

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    Ok thanks, I was gonna change my score but I'll keep it.
     
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  18. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi General

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    So here's my final predictions. I'm basing on this the film arriving to reviews of around 83% on RT. I suspect the reviews will be in line with Rogue One. Critics didn't like it as much, but I suspect fans will love it. If that's the case....

    $200M opening weekend in the US. $1.4B total gross.
     
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  19. Addi Ras

    Addi Ras Jedi General
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    Ok finale change (probably) :).

    Opening Weekend $233
    Domestic Total $845 Million
    WorldWide Total $1.75 Billion

    Always in motion the future is (yoda 2)
     
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  20. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    Box office predictions are like:

    1024.jpg
     
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