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SPECULATION The Rise of Skywalker Box Office Predictions

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker' started by DarthSnow, Oct 22, 2019.

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Which records will The Rise of Skywalker break at the Box Office?

Poll closed Dec 22, 2019.
  1. Top Opening Weekend (current: Endgame, $357.11 mil )

    9 vote(s)
    15.0%
  2. Top December Opening (current: TFA, $247.97 mil )

    25 vote(s)
    41.7%
  3. Highest Percentage of Box Office take (current: TFA, 52.0% )

    15 vote(s)
    25.0%
  4. Highest Grossing Film of All-Time (current: Endgame, $2.8 billion)

    2 vote(s)
    3.3%
  5. It won't break any records.

    27 vote(s)
    45.0%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    math-formula-chalkboard.jpg

    Domestic Opening
    174m - @Rogues1138
    190m - @Jedi77-83
    200m - @DailyPlunge
    200m - @Darth Wardawg
    205m - @Travcon
    211m - @Meister Yoda
    220m - @Palpatine was Framed
    224m - @Quiller
    225m - @Addi Ras
    227.5m - @FN-3263827
    228m - @Bluemilk
    230m - @Rodney-2187
    233m - @Addi Ras
    255m - @oldbert
    255,382,320 - @Fearghas_Ajax
    260m - @Porco Azzurro
    265m - @Too Gon Onbourbon
    300m - @DarthSnow
    325m - @Anubis78

    Domestic Total
    700m - @Meister Yoda
    740m - @Addi Ras
    750m - @Rodney-2187
    770m - @Palpatine was Framed
    800m - @Porco Azzurro
    845m - @Addi Ras
    850m - @Travcon
    852m - @Quiller
    871.3m - @FN-3263827
    873m - @oldbert
    873,028,820 - @Fearghas_Ajax
    925m - @Too Gon Onbourbon

    Worldwide Total
    980m - @Shadowblade
    1.2b - @Meister Yoda
    1.35b - @Palpatine was Framed
    1.4b - @DailyPlunge
    1.4b - @Travcon
    1.45b - @FN-3263827
    1.5b - @Darth Wardawg
    1.5b - @Rodney-2187
    1.6b - @Too Gon Onbourbon
    1.64b - @Quiller
    1.7b - @Addi Ras
    1.7b - @Porco Azzurro
    1.75b - @Addi Ras
    1.92b - @oldbert
    1,923,138,800 - @Fearghas_Ajax
     
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  2. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Coramoor

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    Here's the Google Trend data for the US for the month before release for this trilogy.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    I'm not sure if any of this really matters, but interest in The Rise of Skywalker is higher than The Last Jedi. It actually mirrors the run up to The Force Awakens. I will add, something looks off with The Last Jedi numbers. So place an note next to that one. However, interest for TROS being close to TFA suggests that Star Wars fatigue or lack of interest has been grossly exaggerated online.
     
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  3. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    Today is the last day to make a box office prediction before I post the final list tomorrow. Don't be left out of the fun as the numbers start rolling in! Come on and spin the wheel!

    PointlessThriftyEgret-size_restricted.gif
     
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  4. Campe

    Campe Rebelscum

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    Opening weekend: $210 million
    Domestic Total: $820 million
    Worldwide Total: $1.55 billion

    But really I have no idea. :p
     
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  5. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    ‘Star Wars: Rise Of Skywalker’ Eyes $450M+ Global Debut
    https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-global-opening-box-office-1202810995/



     
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  6. Rogues1138

    Rogues1138 Crazy Old Wizard

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    Opening: 175m(emperor)

    Domestic: 713m

    Worldwide: 1.1b (epic fail)
     
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  7. Addi Ras

    Addi Ras MASTER TEA MAKER
    1030th Grand Admiral ***** (Mod)

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    I FIND YOUR LACK OF BOX OFFICE DISTURBING (vader)
     
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  8. Rogues1138

    Rogues1138 Crazy Old Wizard

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    ROTS (850m) did not make as near to TPM (1b) numbers, but it did better than AOTC(649m).
    OT film's box office went down with every film. ANH 775M, ESB 547M ROTJ 475M TFA(2b)>TLJ (1.3b) ...TROS??? Last film in the SAGA might make those unlikely to come out get OUT haha... mixed bag... fan service??? Who knows...
    --- Double Post Merged, Dec 17, 2019, Original Post Date: Dec 17, 2019 ---
    I remember when I was 13 years old, I was watching Entertainment Tonight, and the critics said ROTJ isn't as good as the first two, as they played the trailer in the background, I said ok then, I won't ask mom to take me I'll get those hot Adidas sneakers I've been saving up for... biggest mistake of my life...haha
     
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  9. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    For reference:

    opening / domestic / worldwide

    Star Wars - 1,554,475 / 460,998,007 / 775,398,007
    TESB - 4,910,483 / 290,271,960 / 547,969,004
    RotJ - 23,019,618 / 309,205,079 / 475,106,177

    TPM - 65m / 475m / 1.03b
    AotC - 80m / 311m / 657m
    RotS - 108m / 380m / 849m

    The Force Awakens - 247m / 936m / 2.0b
    Rogue One - 155m / 532m / 1.0b
    The Last Jedi - 220m / 620m / 1.3m
    Solo - 84m / 213m / 392m

    Avengers: Endgame - 357m / 858m / 2.7b



    All-Time Top Domestic Totals
    1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $936,662,225
    2. Avengers: Endgame - $858,019,977
    3. Avatar - $760,507,625
    4. Black Panther - $700,059,566
    5. Avengers: Infinity War - $678,815,482
    6. Titanic - $659,363,944
    7. Jurassic World - $652,270,625
    8. Marvel's The Avengers - $623,357,910
    9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi - $620,181,382
    10. Incredibles 2 - $608,581,744

    12. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - $532,177,324
    16. The Phantom Menace - $474,544,677
    17. Star Wars - $460,998,007


    All-Time Worldwide Totals
    1. Avengers: Endgame - $2,797.8
    2. Avatar - $2,789.7
    3. Titanic - $2,208.2
    4. The Force Awakens - $2,068.2
    5. Avengers: Infinity War - $2,048.3
    6. The Lion King $1,656.1
    7. Jurassic World - $1,648.8
    8. Marvel's The Avengers - $1,518.8
    9. Furious 7 - $1,518.7
    10. Avengers: Age of Ultron - $1,403.0
    11. Black Panther - $1,346.9
    12. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $1,341.5
    13. The Last Jedi - $1,332.8
    14. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $1,309.5
    15. Frozen - $1,272.4
     
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  10. Jedi MD

    Jedi MD Jedi Commander

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    I’ll give it a go

    Opening- 230 million
    Domestic- 805 million
    Worldwide- 1.85 billion
     
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  11. Anubis78

    Anubis78 Mad we are all mad here.... Now time for tea
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    I am going with
    Domestic 902 mil
    worldwide 1.95 billion
     
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  12. oldbert

    oldbert Guardian of Coffee Breaks

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    Going big, don't you? :D
     
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  13. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    [​IMG]

    FINAL LIST

    Domestic Opening

    175m - @Rogues1138
    190m - @Jedi77-83
    200m - @DailyPlunge
    200m - @Darth Wardawg
    205m - @Travcon
    210m - @Campe
    211m - @Meister Yoda
    220m - @Palpatine was Framed
    224m - @Quiller
    225m - @Addi Ras
    227.5m - @FN-3263827
    228m - @Bluemilk
    230m - @Jedi MD
    230m - @Rodney-2187
    233m - @Addi Ras
    255m - @oldbert
    255,382,320 - @Fearghas_Ajax
    260m - @Porco Azzurro
    265m - @Too Gon Onbourbon
    300m - @DarthSnow
    325m - @Anubis78

    Domestic Total
    700m - @Meister Yoda
    713m - @Rogues1138
    740m - @Addi Ras
    750m - @Rodney-2187
    770m - @Palpatine was Framed
    800m - @Porco Azzurro
    805m - @Jedi MD
    820m - @Campe
    845m - @Addi Ras
    850m - @Travcon
    852m - @Quiller
    871.3m - @FN-3263827
    873m - @oldbert
    873,028,820 - @Fearghas_Ajax
    902m - @Anubis78
    925m - @Too Gon Onbourbon

    Worldwide Total
    980m - @Shadowblade
    1.1b - @Rogues1138
    1.2b - @Meister Yoda
    1.35b - @Palpatine was Framed
    1.4b - @DailyPlunge
    1.4b - @Travcon
    1.45b - @FN-3263827
    1.5b - @Darth Wardawg
    1.5b - @Rodney-2187
    1.55b - @Campe
    1.6b - @Too Gon Onbourbon
    1.64b - @Quiller
    1.7b - @Addi Ras
    1.7b - @Porco Azzurro
    1.75b - @Addi Ras
    1.85b - @Jedi MD
    1.92b - @oldbert
    1,923,138,800 - @Fearghas_Ajax
    1.95b - @Anubis78
     
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  14. Anubis78

    Anubis78 Mad we are all mad here.... Now time for tea
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    Go big or go home I want this thing to go down in history.
     
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  15. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Coramoor

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    We won't know until Friday/Saturday what audiences think but critics aren't fans of this film. If audience agree with critics this film may struggle to get to $1.1B.
     
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  16. Use the Falchion

    Use the Falchion Jedi Contrarian

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    I'm not going to predict an exact number or gamble anything, but I voted Top December Opening and Highest Box Office Take because I believe it CAN do that. I'm honestly doubtful it will, but I believe it can. It's NOT touching Endgame numbers though.
     
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  17. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Coramoor

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    Based on the lackluster reviews Box Office Pro has adjusted their opening weekend number from $200M to $183M. Final numbers will depend on word of mouth.
     
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  18. Jedi77-83

    Jedi77-83 Force Sensitive

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    Domestic Opening
    174m - @Rogues1138
    190m - @Jedi77-83
    200m - @DailyPlunge
    200m - @Darth Wardawg
    205m - @Travcon
    211m - @Meister Yoda
    220m - @Palpatine was Framed
    224m - @Quiller
    225m - @Addi Ras
    227.5m - @FN-3263827
    228m - @Bluemilk
    230m - @Rodney-2187
    233m - @Addi Ras
    255m - @oldbert
    255,382,320 - @Fearghas_Ajax
    260m - @Porco Azzurro
    265m - @Too Gon Onbourbon
    300m - @DarthSnow
    325m - @Anubis78

    Looks like @Rogues1138 is the winner, and I get the silver medal as the weekend gross was 175.5 million. I did not see that low number coming as the mixed reviews/low box office/TLJ backlash/franchise fatigue will definitely hurt the legs on this box office now with casual fans. This will probaby finish around Rogue One Box Office numbers.

    https://www.polygon.com/2019/12/22/...totals-opening-weekend-domestic-international
     
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  19. Rogues1138

    Rogues1138 Crazy Old Wizard

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    I wonder if that's the final number? Usually Sunday is estimated until the actual comes out late Monday early Tuesday. Btw my final was 175m :p.
     
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  20. Jedi77-83

    Jedi77-83 Force Sensitive

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    I’m sure we’ll get an exact number tomorrow but they were still predicting 190-200 million weekend as of yesterday, so that means Saturday night wasn’t as good as predicted. That tells me it will only get worse at this point and not better.

    Unless this gets better word of mouth, the casual fans will stay at home. I saw it with my best friend the other night as I enjoyed it but he hated it. I think mixed reviews will continue and that’s not good.
     
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