SPECULATION The Rise of Skywalker Box Office Predictions

Yes. Yes it is. And there are six: Avengers 1-4, Black Panther, and Incredibles 2.

 

Per Deadline, Christmas Day for TROS is the 2nd best Christmas Day box office all time at ~$35 million (#1 Force Awakens). That actually puts this not too far off of Last Jedi for domestic box office, and it might suggest some strength for TROS. After all, TROS opened on the final weekend before Christmas, meaning that there are likely a set of people who were traveling and/or shopping that would have otherwise gone to the theater. In contrast, TLJ opened two weekends before Christmas. At this point, the about the main difference between the two is TLJ had a higher Friday total. To me, the real test will be this coming weekend.

https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-w...ce-little-women-spies-in-disguise-1202816735/

 

I posted this a week before the movie came out because everyone I was talking to (co-workers, Family, friends) we’re all seeing the 2nd week/weekend because the movie literally opened a few days before Christmas.

If you look at the 2nd weekday box office, TROS is doing VERY well (better than TLJ, and close to TFA), so I think this has more legs than the naysayers were predicting. I think the Christmas calendar and the good word of mouth from the fans should give a surprising 2nd week gross.

 

Agreed. I'm sort of surprised that they didn't aim for the week before, but considering how long it took them to lock edit and finish the post-production its probably good that they didn't!

But yeah, the box office isn't doing too bad all things considered, and yesterday's numbers did put it across the $500mil mark worldwide. What remains to be seen is whether the international box office picks up (it seems more under-expectations worldwide than it does domestic, but again: it could be the holiday weekend).

 

True. And here in the States, most people miss that Force Awakens is still the #1 domestic box office - Endgame got marginally close, but was still quite a ways off the mark.

 

Is this going to be my next avatar?



(I said if TRoS didn't break a billion, I'd make a pink jar-jar my avatar.)

 

Well, this is getting wild - through Friday's numbers TROS has made up most of the difference between it and TLJ. Through the first 8 days of release, TLJ made $321mil and TROS has now made $316mil (domestic). Can't wait to see the weekend estimates.

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 29, 2019, Original Post Date: Dec 29, 2019 ---

After today's receipts TROS will be across $600bil worldwide for sure. Anything is possible, but I think you're probably very safe from Jar Jar.

 

Current SW:TROS split: 50% domestic / 50% foreign

The heavier on the domestic (when going above 50%) and lighter on the foreign (going below 50%), the harder the road to $1B becomes.

$550M * 2 = $1.1B
$525M * 2 = $1.05B
$500M * 2 = $1B
$475M * 2 = $0.95B
$450M * 2 = $0.9B

 

I am no expert, but I think US$ 1 bi is safe. However, I think TRoS will finish below TLJ’s 1.3 bi mostly because of weaker box office overseas (i.e. out of the US ).

Anyway, 1.1 or 1.2 bi would be considered fantastic 10 years ago, but now there are so many movies at this range that it looks like a disappointment, especially for a Star Wars trilogy movie.

 

I will do my best to make foreign numbers better. TROS is my least favorite of ST, but my son loves it. So will go for another viewing today.

 

People like to shrug off reviews and audience scores like they don't matter, but a poorly reviews film with the lowest audience score in the sequel trilogy means the legs are that great. Most fans like the film, but the reception is certainly more mixed than the last two chapters.

None of it really matters really. Disney is still going to make a fortune with this film, but it could have been much higher had it be received better.

 

TROS Multiplier advantage versus TLJ
Multiplier advantage Week 1 = +0.28 (2.82 + 0.28 * $177.4M = $550M TROS final domestic total)
Multiplier advantage Week 2 = +0.24 (2.82 + 0.24 * $177.4M = $543M TROS final domestic total)
Multiplier advantage Week 3 = +0.11 (2.82 + 0.11 * $177.4M = $520M TROS final domestic total)

... and so on ...

If it keeps on decreasing, then the final total shifts downward. If it increases, the final total shifts upward. And TLJ only added another 0.32 to its multiplier between yesterday (Thursday) and its final multiplier.

If TROS final total is $500M, then day it hit 90% is Day 17
If TROS final total is $505M, then day it hit 90% is Day 18
If TROS final total is $510M, then day it hit 90% is Day 20
If TROS final total is $515M, then day it hit 90% is Day 22 (today)
If TROS final total is >=$520M, then day it hit 90% is Day >=22 (today)

 

Seems it’s going to be a close race to the bottom between us for that medal

 

currently:

$478,169,690 domestic + $511,400,000 intentional = $989,569,690 worldwide

2019 domestic box office
1. Avengers: Endgame - $858,373,000
2. The Lion King - $543,638,043
3. The Rise of Skywalker - $478,169,690
4. Frozen II - $454,852,042
5. Toy Story 4 - $434,038,008
6. Captain Marvel - $426,829,839
7. Spider-Man: Far From Home - $390,532,085
8. Aladdin - $355,559,216
9. Joker - $334,046,521
10. Jumanji: The Next Level - $257,124,981

 

Well, unless the numbers are way off when the actuals come in tomorrow, @Rodney-2187 will have to wait until next week to beat his pink Jar Jar profile picture bet.

TROS is now almost a full $100mil behind TLJ through the same number of days. No way to shake it: the past week + this weekend's numbers have been... not optimal. Honestly, it feels really far away from $500mil right now. Wouldn't surprise me to see domestic total somewhere about $510mil when the dust settles. Maybe about a $1.06bil worldwide haul.

 

I think it will certainly cross a billion, but I carried the Jar-Jar avatar around for a week or so anyway because it has definitely performed far below what I expected at the box office. Seemed like the thing to do.

 

I think @Meister Yoda pretty much has the Domestic Total prediction wrapped up at this point, unless something amazing happens. Worldwide still too close to call.

 

Predictions most likely in play for Woldwide: