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SPECULATION The Rise of Skywalker Box Office Predictions

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker' started by DarthSnow, Oct 22, 2019.

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Which records will The Rise of Skywalker break at the Box Office?

Poll closed Dec 22, 2019.
  1. Top Opening Weekend (current: Endgame, $357.11 mil )

    9 vote(s)
    15.0%
  2. Top December Opening (current: TFA, $247.97 mil )

    25 vote(s)
    41.7%
  3. Highest Percentage of Box Office take (current: TFA, 52.0% )

    15 vote(s)
    25.0%
  4. Highest Grossing Film of All-Time (current: Endgame, $2.8 billion)

    2 vote(s)
    3.3%
  5. It won't break any records.

    27 vote(s)
    45.0%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Meister Yoda

    Meister Yoda Your Little Green Friend

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    Always in motion the future is.(yoda 2)
     
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  2. GeneralMadine

    GeneralMadine Rebelscum

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    I may have been a bit too bleak last week... Its still about $100 behind TLJ, so it might not be losing more ground. If so, it could land closer to $520 domestic. There is, of course, also the possibility that it stays stronger than TLJ down the stretch. The next 7-10 days should give a little better clue on that, since its been out for a full month now. We're also at the point where theaters start to cut down on screenings, too... so it will be interesting to see how it plays out with that as well.

    Either way, most of the box office has been made already. TLJ died really quickly after the MLK weekend... it only made another $25 mil or so domestic over the course of nearly 100 additional days. Even TFA had made over 90% of its domestic haul within the first 32 days.
     
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  3. Shadowblade

    Shadowblade Clone Commander

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    @Rogues1138 has it called at 1.1. Going to edge to 1.06-1.07, at this time it will for sure not go near 1.2.

    We have a winner!
     
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  4. Rogues1138

    Rogues1138 Jedi General

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    50 million more and I just might hit it. It's doing about half a million a day (1.7m Saturday). I took a wild guess on the domestic at $700m though should have put more thought into that. 700m million would have definitely surpassed TLJ and I knew it would not so I got the opening weekend right, and I might get the worldwide but brain farted on the domestic.



    I usually gauge anecdotal evidence with what the analysts or professionals are saying, and do some research of my own... box office predictions are fun.
     
    #164 Rogues1138, Feb 2, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2020
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  5. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi General

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    $1.1B is pretty good considering the reviews and audience scores. Had the the film been received better it probably could have hit $1.5-7.
     
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  6. Rogues1138

    Rogues1138 Jedi General

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    Maybe... Lol. 1.5 - 1.7b, it would have to be a flawless film (meaning really good, and received better as you said) and we all know JJ's track record. He's a mystery box man, not a finisher... TRoS is a fun film nonetheless, with many flaws. I hope in 3 years LFL gives us something great. 1.1b isn't bad at all.
    Even though I enjoyed TLJ, TRoS had to repair the damage done and it did a decent job. Looking forward to Kevin Feige's take... Feige don't fail me now.
     
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  7. DailyPlunge

    DailyPlunge Jedi General

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    This is where we part company. There's no damage created in TLJ. TROS stands on its own. JJ had access to all the trilogies main characters. The biggest challenge was Carrie's part and that's not TLJ's fault. TLJ was received well despite what some people on the internet think.
     
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  8. Rogues1138

    Rogues1138 Jedi General

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    I mentioned anecdotal evidence because I can't seem to shake what a casual fan said at work, Luke Skywalker is the most optimistic warrior known, he really disliked TLJ and what was done with Luke. People change so I don't agree with him I enjoyed TLJ. Also, I was reading a Star Wars novel at work because I have a lot of downtime on my post and a co-worker said something really awful and I was appalled. So a lot of people have problems with the state of Star Wars not only the fans, but you are certainly right you can not judge a film on anecdotal evidence you must look at the facts. However, I may feel the facts are the facts...
     
    #168 Rogues1138, Feb 3, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2020
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  9. Rodney-2187

    Rodney-2187 Guest

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    Just to recap and finish what I started:



    These predictions appear to be locks for Domestic and Worldwide totals. The mods may want to wait longer before handing out any official rewards.



    Congrats again to the above and thanks to everyone who participated.
     
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  10. Rogues1138

    Rogues1138 Jedi General

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    Wow, I waited so long for TRoS, I can't believe its theatrical run is coming to a close... Well, I can't wait for the home release now! @Rodney-2187 Thanks for another exceptional time here at the Cantina... Bright suns!
     
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  11. Meister Yoda

    Meister Yoda Your Little Green Friend

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    There are rewards?
     
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  12. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Jedi General

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    Stamina updates for the Top 10 domestic movies >$200M (2015-2020):

    [​IMG]
    (update: Joker total +$122,527; no other impact)

    [​IMG]
     
    #172 MagnarTheGreat, Feb 10, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2020
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  13. Jayson

    Jayson Force Sensitive

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    I know it's a tad off topic, but on this note...I just want take a moment and say how badarse he did considering he is not historically a finisher (something he openly admits).
    And considering what he had to finish...jesus!
    1 billion finish for a guy with one series finish in his entire career and openly says it's his weakness, is really a proud moment from me as both an Abrams fan and a SW fan.
    More than that - everyone who worked with him on this felt proud and included. It didn't become a social meltdown under all the stress.

    Hats off!

    Cheers,
    Jayson
     
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  14. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Jedi General

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    [​IMG]
     
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  15. Veronica

    Veronica Rebel Trooper

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    Seems to be on par or close to the numbers that TLJ made. Though it remains to be seen if it will last as many weeks in theaters. As much as I would like for it to do big numbers. Money does not equal quality. And it's not unheard of for a sequels to make less money than it's predecessors.
     
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