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SPECULATION Box Office: Rogue One's Financial Performance?

Discussion in 'Rogue One' started by Old Biff from the Future, Dec 27, 2015.

?

Will Rogue One be hurt by having TFA come out only a year before?

Poll closed Dec 26, 2016.
  1. Yes

    3 vote(s)
    10.7%
  2. No

    25 vote(s)
    89.3%
  3. The Anthology is a bad idea

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. Old Biff from the Future

    Old Biff from the Future Dune Sea Hermit

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    As you all know the first anthology film, Rogue One, comes out next year at the same time TFA came out.
    The film will be HOT off the heals of what looks to be 2 billion WW plus for The Force Awakens.


    This is the first time in Star Wars history we go back to back like this.......

    What do you think Rogue One is in for regarding the box office take?

    Do you think it will perform similarly to TFA?

    Less because it is not an Episodic Film?

    Will the GP know the difference between an Episodic Film and this?

    Will it perform like a Marvel solo super hero film? Or like The Avengers? Discuss!



    Let's discuss since we are now on the ROAD to Rogue One.....


    Let's follow it and discuss it here.
     
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  2. Sylair

    Sylair Rebel General

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    It will definitely do good, TFA good? Probably not. (IMO) It will probably make less than 8&9 as well. It will probably perform in between a Marvel solo film and an Avenger's film.
    I think it heavily depends on the quality of the film, if it's good, word of mouth will help it greatly.

    But with how good TFA is doing I would not be surprised if it makes way more than people expect.
     
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  3. Veradun

    Veradun Clone Commander

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    Old Biff, you may need to steal Doc Brown's Delorean and contact your former self from 30 minutes ago - the way your Yes option is phrased, it sounds like it won't hurt box office. Maybe that text should go after "no"?

    Of course, I could be reading it wrong.
     
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  4. Kabe

    Kabe Rebelscum

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    I still think the general public will be confused by another Star Wars movie coming out a year after TFA which is not a sequel to TFA. Disney's marketing department has a very tricky juggling act to execute in 2016.
     
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  5. Cmdr. Ed Straker

    Cmdr. Ed Straker Rebel Official

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    I guess in the range of AOTC. (more or less)
    I suppose No, not as good as TFA. (don't has the OT cast)
    A good trailer is important to get people hooked and curious.
    Yes, it's a standalone. (not that I dislike the idea behind it) (the plot could profit from it)
    I guess better as a marvel solo movie, because it's Star Wars.
     
    #5 Cmdr. Ed Straker, Jan 2, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2016
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  6. Addi Ras

    Addi Ras MASTER TEA MAKER
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    it will do well at the box office due to the star wars tag but not in the TFA class but I guessing in top 5 for the year a good target would be ether CA Civil War or Batman V Superman even if it is going to be a very different style of film
     
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  7. AlienofDoom

    AlienofDoom Rebel General

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    I used to think it'd make somewhere around 700 or so million... but then now Fandango's saying it's the most anticipated film of the year.
    That surprises me. A lot. It was more anticipated than Batman v. Superman. More than Civil War.
    I don't think it'll make more than either of those films, but I think that it'll definitely be in their ballpark. I figure now I'd adjust my estimate up closer to a billion.

    As to the audience, I trust that a fair bit of Disney's advertising campaign will be focused towards outlining what this film is and stressing what is not, so by the time December rolls around, the public will know what's up.
     
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  8. HylianBowcaster

    HylianBowcaster Rebelscum

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    I think the best indicator of how well Rogue One will do in the box office might be Iron Man 3. After the Avengers came out and broke all kinds of records and made more than any of the other Marvel films, Iron Man 3 came out and because the fifth biggest movie of all time (at the time, it's since dropped a bit). I think the increased brand awareness around Star Wars in general will help Rogue One make more money than it would if it was release without the accompanying Sequel Trilogy.
     
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  9. bigbayblue

    bigbayblue Rebel Official

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    It's not the first Star Wars movie in a decade. It's not part of the main saga. It doesn't have Han, Leia or Luke. There are no Jedi or lightsaber duels. And it's a prequel.

    It's potential is obviously going to be lower than TFA.

    It does have the general good will and momentum created by the positive reaction to TFA.

    I expect its domestic box office take to be around $300-$350 million. In other words, major blockbuster numbers, but not cultural phenomenon numbers.

    For R1 to earn north of $400 million domestically, I think two things need to happen: the trailer needs to blow everyone away, and the reviews have to be very strong - almost TFA strong.
     
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  10. SKB

    SKB Force Sensitive

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    As long as there are no "Gungan Spies" assisting in the theft of the Death Star plans, Rogue One should do very well. ;)
     
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  11. Quill

    Quill Rebel General

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    Rogue One will make one billion.

    Though it will be nowhere near TFA.
     
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  12. Darth Dyne

    Darth Dyne Rebel Commander

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    It will probably make around a billion but if it ends up being very good I could definitely see it making much more.
     
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  13. Old Biff from the Future

    Old Biff from the Future Dune Sea Hermit

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    I agree

    However, if they have VADER and they are off the heals of TFA it could make 1 billion WW plus.

    Here is to hoping!
     
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  14. ZebroGodilla

    ZebroGodilla Darklighter Ace

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    Near a billion with the cast we have seen, and 1 Billion+ with Vader. With Vader fighting, I'd say add another 200 million at least.
     
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  15. jwickjedi

    jwickjedi Rebel Commander

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    I see it still making about 110 - 125 million opening week, and end up around 375 - 450 million domestic, and make close to 1 billion dollars WW. If it is REALLY good, it could make close to 1.2-1.3 billion or so WW. So basically I expect it will make 2/3 of what TFA will do.....which ain't bad at all.
    OT: I also see episode 8 making roughly 75% of what TFA did..........and Episode 9, this one could be 80 to 85% of what TFA did, depending on how WELL episode 8 ends. Then again, I thought TFA would do 140-160 million opening Weekend domestic, and I was WAY OFF. :(
     
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  16. AstromechRecords

    AstromechRecords Jedi General

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    Besides my joking around a lot,

    Realistically I'd say: $755,000,000.00 Dom.

    $1 BILLION int.
     
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  17. Old Biff from the Future

    Old Biff from the Future Dune Sea Hermit

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    If Vader returns for an action scene = 700 million
    No Vader = 475-550 million

    it's that simple, at least for me...hahaha
     
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  18. KyloMaul25

    KyloMaul25 Clone

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    This one will have to rely on word of mouth a lot more than TFA did, but I think it will be profitable. I'll predict 400 million domestically.
     
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  19. Pomojema

    Pomojema Ayatollah Of Rock-&-Rolla
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    My guess is that it'll come in under $2 billion, and most of that internationally. (At this point, I think that we're in an age where a Star Wars movie making less than $1 billion ought to be unthinkable.) However, if the inclusion of Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen end up lighting Asia on fire, then it has a small chance of making $2 billion.
     
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  20. Vader_the_White

    Vader_the_White Rebel General

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    I doubt it will do as well as The Force Awakens. It should do well no matter what, but it depends on how good the film is and how well it is marketed. As some people said, Disney needs to make sure that people don't think it is Episode VIII. That's its biggest hurdle.
    I do think it will do better proportionally than a film like Attack of the Clones, which suffered from being the sequel to The Phantom Menace, not being the first film in a long time (The Phantom Menace, The Force Awakens) or the possible last (Revenge of the Sith), poor marketing (I remember far more stuff for Menace and Sith and most of the merchandise for Attack of the Clones shared the same generic Star Wars packaging as other merchandise), major competition (Spider-Man came out the same month), and the fact that it was dull as hell with one of the worst, least believable film romances of all time at its core.
    While it does share the aspect of not being the first Star Wars film in a long time, it does benefit from The Force Awakens reminding people how good the series can be. It just needs good marketing, keeping it in people's minds (as well as making sure they know what film they are watching), and it needs to be a decent to great film.
     
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