SPECULATION Box Office: Rogue One's Financial Performance?

It will definitely do good, TFA good? Probably not. (IMO) It will probably make less than 8&9 as well. It will probably perform in between a Marvel solo film and an Avenger's film.
I think it heavily depends on the quality of the film, if it's good, word of mouth will help it greatly.

But with how good TFA is doing I would not be surprised if it makes way more than people expect.

 

Old Biff, you may need to steal Doc Brown's Delorean and contact your former self from 30 minutes ago - the way your Yes option is phrased, it sounds like it won't hurt box office. Maybe that text should go after "no"?

Of course, I could be reading it wrong.

 

I still think the general public will be confused by another Star Wars movie coming out a year after TFA which is not a sequel to TFA. Disney's marketing department has a very tricky juggling act to execute in 2016.

 

I guess in the range of AOTC. (more or less)

I suppose No, not as good as TFA. (don't has the OT cast)
A good trailer is important to get people hooked and curious.

Yes, it's a standalone. (not that I dislike the idea behind it) (the plot could profit from it)

I guess better as a marvel solo movie, because it's Star Wars.

 

I used to think it'd make somewhere around 700 or so million... but then now Fandango's saying it's the most anticipated film of the year.
That surprises me. A lot. It was more anticipated than Batman v. Superman. More than Civil War.
I don't think it'll make more than either of those films, but I think that it'll definitely be in their ballpark. I figure now I'd adjust my estimate up closer to a billion.

As to the audience, I trust that a fair bit of Disney's advertising campaign will be focused towards outlining what this film is and stressing what is not, so by the time December rolls around, the public will know what's up.

 

I think the best indicator of how well Rogue One will do in the box office might be Iron Man 3. After the Avengers came out and broke all kinds of records and made more than any of the other Marvel films, Iron Man 3 came out and because the fifth biggest movie of all time (at the time, it's since dropped a bit). I think the increased brand awareness around Star Wars in general will help Rogue One make more money than it would if it was release without the accompanying Sequel Trilogy.

 

It's not the first Star Wars movie in a decade. It's not part of the main saga. It doesn't have Han, Leia or Luke. There are no Jedi or lightsaber duels. And it's a prequel.

It's potential is obviously going to be lower than TFA.

It does have the general good will and momentum created by the positive reaction to TFA.

I expect its domestic box office take to be around $300-$350 million. In other words, major blockbuster numbers, but not cultural phenomenon numbers.

For R1 to earn north of $400 million domestically, I think two things need to happen: the trailer needs to blow everyone away, and the reviews have to be very strong - almost TFA strong.

 

As long as there are no "Gungan Spies" assisting in the theft of the Death Star plans, Rogue One should do very well.

 

Rogue One will make one billion.

Though it will be nowhere near TFA.

 

It will probably make around a billion but if it ends up being very good I could definitely see it making much more.

 

Near a billion with the cast we have seen, and 1 Billion+ with Vader. With Vader fighting, I'd say add another 200 million at least.

 

I see it still making about 110 - 125 million opening week, and end up around 375 - 450 million domestic, and make close to 1 billion dollars WW. If it is REALLY good, it could make close to 1.2-1.3 billion or so WW. So basically I expect it will make 2/3 of what TFA will do.....which ain't bad at all.
OT: I also see episode 8 making roughly 75% of what TFA did..........and Episode 9, this one could be 80 to 85% of what TFA did, depending on how WELL episode 8 ends. Then again, I thought TFA would do 140-160 million opening Weekend domestic, and I was WAY OFF.

 

Besides my joking around a lot,

Realistically I'd say: $755,000,000.00 Dom.

$1 BILLION int.

 

This one will have to rely on word of mouth a lot more than TFA did, but I think it will be profitable. I'll predict 400 million domestically.

 

I doubt it will do as well as The Force Awakens. It should do well no matter what, but it depends on how good the film is and how well it is marketed. As some people said, Disney needs to make sure that people don't think it is Episode VIII. That's its biggest hurdle.
I do think it will do better proportionally than a film like Attack of the Clones, which suffered from being the sequel to The Phantom Menace, not being the first film in a long time (The Phantom Menace, The Force Awakens) or the possible last (Revenge of the Sith), poor marketing (I remember far more stuff for Menace and Sith and most of the merchandise for Attack of the Clones shared the same generic Star Wars packaging as other merchandise), major competition (Spider-Man came out the same month), and the fact that it was dull as hell with one of the worst, least believable film romances of all time at its core.
While it does share the aspect of not being the first Star Wars film in a long time, it does benefit from The Force Awakens reminding people how good the series can be. It just needs good marketing, keeping it in people's minds (as well as making sure they know what film they are watching), and it needs to be a decent to great film.