What are the chances of the release getting moved back to May 2017?

These guys know what they're doing. Here is 2017 as far as Star Wars goes:

January-February: coasting from Rogue One release.

March: some info from Han Solo film will leak by. Talk of what's on Rogue One DVD. Talk of what will happen at celebration 2017

April: Celebration Orlando. First Episode VIII interviews. First full trailer. Rogue one DVD

May: 40th Anniversary. Expect lots of retro merchandise mixed in with current stuff to celebrate.

June: coasting from 40th anniversary.

July: D-23. Begins ongoing episode VIII interviews for rest of year.

August: ongoing interviews. Summer low spot.

September: Force Friday

October: last trailer. General audience hype starts

November: the hype is climaxing, it can't be contained.

December: the release. Satisfaction acquired. The marketing team has done their job, now fans advertise with word of mouth.

January - February 2018: coasting from Episode VIII

March 2018: fans are thirsty. They'll take whatever they can get.

April 2018: thirsty for more. Need instant gratification. Episode VIII DVD

May 2018: the overload of Star Wars thirst turns Han Solo film in to a massive hit.

June-July 2018: Coasting off Han Solo film.

August 2018: Fans realize no more Star Wars until 2019. First signs of withdrawal

September 2018: Force Friday. It doesn't matter if it's Jar Jar or Ewoks, fans will buy anything for star wars fix. Withdrawal increases

October 2018: no Star Wars trailer this year. panic starts

November 2018: fans go insane. Start begging

December 2018: disastrous December for blockbusters movies. General audience realize something's missing. Now the general audience is begging like crack addicts along with the fans.

January 2019: disney has acquired total dominion. Episode IX could be about space whales versus sea monkies, it doesn't matter.
Fans want their Star Wars crack.

 

I would say... Let's say... 0%

December is the new blockbuster maker.

 

When they moved TFA back it was because they were crunched for time. They were not going to hit the original May release date. They were still crunched for time with the December release. TFA obviously did very well in December showing. Of course it would have done well at anytime but given the lack of blockbusters in the winter, it had very little competition at the box office for weeks. Disney saw how this worked and decided to push back VIII. Now they have plenty of time to finish VIII and will own the winter box office once again.

Could they push VIII up. Sure. However they have no incentive to do so. Besides they are going to want to use SW celebration Orlando to really kickstart the marketing for VIII. If they move the movie to May, Celebration will only be a few weeks before. They would have to start marketing VIII way before that and that would lessen the impact of Celebration.

 

The didn't move it back to December because they were worried about the schedule, they were always on this pace where they could have put it out in May. They pushed it back for other reasons, likely because of the success of episode 7 in December and other films unwillingness to be on the calender near Star Wars in December, which they may not have the luxury of doing closer to the Summer season.

 

Never going to happen.

They have a space movie in May already. I personally think Pirates 5 will bomb, but they won't know that upfront. And again, it's another space movie, they won't release it near the second part of another space trilogy (Guardians 3 is pretty much guaranteed).


They'll have EVIII locked by about June. That's like 19 months, way more than enough time to have top notch everything (including CGI that doesn't look fake as €£#¥, like the trench run TFA does).

 

I think Guardians OTG 2 was the biggest reason. The Marvel movies are released in a certain order with a certain amount of time between for lots of reasons, and the big hole in Marvel movie releases is the holidays.

Star Trek films have been released at Xmas time and done well and other action scifi movies.

TFA being good (though not particularly original) along with the anticipation for it guaranteed a big box office take but staking out the last film release weekend before Xmas enables you to double dip for your "opening weekend" : hardcore fans on the real opening weekend, families on Xmas day and a few days afterward (which is always a big movie theater time).

It's a good choice. Also, you can sell lots of toys to kids who want to see the movie and the adults who still buy toys (at least Star Wars ones).

 

Apart from Guardians 2, December is Christmas and what do all the kids who watch Star Wars do in Christmas?

Make their parents buy toys.

Christmas for SW releases with potential for merchandising is the ideal date.

 

I for one am looking forward to Guardians. It as wise not to release them at the same time.

 

The first was pretty terrific, even with yet another forgettable Marvel villain and too much Infinity Stone MacGuffin stuff.

I think EpVIII and GOTGv2 will be very, very different movies (the Kylo Ren theme playing quickly before the reveal of Luke as well his haunted visage make it clear EVIII won't be like TFA) but yes, separating them was wise.

 

Most probably not, but what a gigantic marketing move that would be to move it back to May. The movie will still make a zillion dollars and then you have a beautiful Christmas release date for the special edition DVD. The movie should be fully completed by February 17'. Ready to go. Seems like quite a wait for it's release.

 

I will say this. According to an Australian paper, Pirates of the Carribean 5 is having a lot of issues. Word is they may have to delay the release.

Their slot at the moment? May 26th, 2017.

That just happens to coincide with the 40 year anniversary of the release of Star Wars...

If that slot would open back up?.....

 

Well Pirates 5 is what replaced Episode VIII there anyway.

Hell if Pirates 5 is having issues and has to move,
This is Disney's ultimate chance to release The Force Awakens special edition with added in deleted scenes. And with it on Star Wars 40th anniversary day and with anticipation for episode viii. That movie would probably get more profit then Pitates 5 would.

 

As a fan, I'd LOVE to see the May release date. As you said, it'd coincide with the 40th anniversary. But as a marketing plan, I don't think that would be the case. They'd have to start marketing the movie before Rogue One's release, and that wouldn't do well for Rogue One. So could they do it? Probably (and IMO the best way would be to have an Episode VIII trailer released before Rogue One, with the new May release date [before or after the movie wouldn't matter at that point]), but I doubt they will. But never give up hope! ...until June 2017 that is!

 

December is better for marketing and merchandise, so I guess they will stay for the Christmas slot for all upcoming SW movies.

 

I wouldn't even market it. I would wait until Star Wars Celebration boom! surprise! show a full trailer and announce the new release date. The Interwebs, social media, and it's viralness will take care of the rest. After the announcement, with one month and a half before it's release, the frenzy created would be unparalleled.

--- Double Post Merged, Aug 24, 2016, Original Post Date: Aug 24, 2016 ---

I wouldn't even worry about Christmas merchandising, with a DVD special edition release, the movie will work it's way back into the hive mind and you hold back some of the merch and release it in Nov just before Christmas, zoom..gone!

 

I would be really happy if VIII returns to the May 2017 release date, but somehow doubt it.

 

Wouldn't Star Wars Celebration be after the release date though...?