Box Office: Episode VIII's Finacial Performance Discussion

My general line of thought: Episode VIII will likely do worse than The Force Awakens, though still be a huge hit.

Like it has been said, the second film in a trilogy tends to worse than the first film. The initial hype ("Wow, this film is amazing!"/"This is the first Star Wars film in 16/10 years!") tends to inflate the box office.

Now, it is in a more interesting position though than its predecessors (Empire and Clones). For Empire, Star Wars was just one (highly successful, and incredibly influential) film. And sequels weren't as common as they are now. For Clones, it had major competition (Spider-Man came out that same month), it was the sequel to the major disaster (film wise, not financially) that was Phantom Menace, and the film was BAD. Also, in the case of Clones, the marketing was terrible. Compare the toy packaging for the three films at the time of release:



See what I mean? With Menace and Sith, the packaging was unique and made it clear it was a new film. The packaging for Clones was generic and could be easy overlooked. And it didn't help that many new elements were based directly on old elements (Jango Fett, Clone Troopers). Combined with the retro look of the logo, it isn't surprising if some kept failing to realize that a new film was coming out (when I was buying my TFA tickets ahead of time last December, I met a person who didn't realize that the new Star Wars film was coming out that month). Also, even I didn't want most of the Attack of the Clones toys and I was a key demographic (a 9-year-old boy who loves Star Wars).
This is unlikely to be a problem for Episode VIII.

But I am rambling. My point is that Star Wars is even more engraved in our culture than it was in 1980, sequels are commonplace, Episode VIII doesn't have the same kind of competition that Clones had in 2002, and the vast majority of people are optimistic about Episode VIII's quality. So it could do way better than those two compared to their respective immediate predecessor.

Also, another thing that can help (or hinder) Episode VIII is Rogue One. It can help by adding more good will towards the franchise, or it could hurt depending on both the quality of the movie and how many people don't realize it isn't Episode VIII and complain. It can also temper Disney's expectations.

I think it would be wise for Disney to lean on the "not as successful" side to avoid disappointment, though it will do very well.

 

Anyone that didn't know AotC was coming out would have to have been completely out of touch with the world - I guarantee you there weren't enough people like that to hurt it's box office total. What hurt AotC was a combination of a poorly received previous installment and mediocre reviews.

Empire was probably hurt a bit by the advent of the VCR, which was just starting find it's way into middle class homes around that time - so there was an alternative to seeing it in theaters or waiting for it to appear on network TV.

But mainly, it's just what many have already said. The cultural phenomena status just isn't going to apply to every film in the series. TPM was the first new movie in 16 years, and at the time people still believed that the brand automatically equaled great movie. TFA marked the first continuation to the story since RotJ, and had the added buzz of the original cast returning.

The second chapter just isn't going to be as big of a draw, no matter how good it is.

But it doesn't really matter. It's still going to be a monster hit - even if it's terrible.

 

The answer to the OP's question is no.

TFA was peak Star Wars, which failed to recapture the magic, and because of this many longtime fans (myself included) have basically said adios to the franchise.

I personally won't be paying to watch Episode VIII, nor downloading it or anything else. I just don't care anymore, and there are many more like me, and our absence will be felt at the box-office next go around.

And before somebody chimes in with "Stop being so negative blah, blah, blah" I just realize the writings on the wall, and that for better or worse, Star Wars without Lucas isn't really Star Wars.

The only thing I'm looking forward to now is the Original Trilogy on 4K ultra-HD blu-ray. The prospect of seeing the films as they were originally meant to be seen in 4k is a glorious prospect which has me quite excited.

 

Like I said, I actually met a person in December of 2015 who didn't know The Force Awakens was coming out that very month and this was at a movie theater.
But really, I was just throwing out a variety of reasons that when combined caused Attack of the Clones to do poorly compared to The Phantom Menace and Revenge of the Sith.
Good point on the VCR with Empire.

Yeah, so many absolutely hated it.

Honestly, I really don't understand why people say that The Force Awakens failed to capture the magic when it did. All three times I went to see it, I didn't feel like the 22-year-old I am or even the 12-year-old who saw Revenge of the Sith, I felt like the 4-year-old who watched the original trilogy all in a row one afternoon and fell in love with a galaxy far, far away.
And "Star Wars without Lucas isn't really Star Wars?" Do I even need to say anything about that?

 

I'm looking forward to a future release too, but I have the feeling that it will not happen.

 

Never say never, my friend. One day, the original trilogy will be restored to its former state. We just have to be patient.

 

Yeah the argument that TFA "failed to recapture the magic" is kind of hard to buy when you look at things like critical response, audience approval, and box office success. In other words, every reasonable measure that is used to judge a movie's success, it was MASSIVE one. Also arguing that "lots of long time fans are turned off" is kind a completely subjective (what does "lots" mean) and a stretch. It sounds more like sour grapes from some people. "I didn't personally care for it, so I'll try and apply my own personal views to the larger audience." And, to put it quite simply, that doesn't work.

Also for everyone one fan who was "turned off," there's probably like 2 to 3 new ones to take their place, if not more so.

 

Sorry, but I can't see this image anymore.
Every fanboy uses it, I call it: "look Mr. - TFA is a good movie, because good rating" (I'am right and you are wrong)
I guess many old folks like me and @DFF don't voted there, the ratings are insignificant in my opinion. (a certain age group don't do this stuff normally)
In the last three months I have seen many YouTube clips about bad TFA reviews and I guess this is only the tip of the icerberg.
My point is that many people don't like it, but most of them don't post/vote and share their opinion at internet sites.
At a first glance it looks like the people who don't like TFA are in the minortiy, but I guess like/dislike is balanced.
Next point, TFA is considered as a fresh tomato on the Tomatometer.
How is this possible, since when is a rehash/remake considered as fresh?
Personally I would rate the movie between 47%-67% on this Tomatomater. (and this is a benevolent vote)
Don't be upset with me, I'm cool with it, that you enjoyed the movie.
I just wanted to clear it up that many folks don't liked the movie and that nobody is right or wrong. (we have just a different taste)
Now I'am looking forward to Rogue One, maybe this movie will please more old fans.

Nonetheless Disney must be very pleased, they are breaking records and making a lot of money.
They hit the jackpot with the purchase of the Star Wars license.
It doesn't matter if we discuss if TFA is a good Star Wars movie or not.

"What is your bidding my Master"

 

Probably not. I don't think VIII's likely to duplicate TFA's insane North American box office gross. So they'd have to find a way to appeal to non-North-American audiences. That's how Avatar got the record.

 

Actually, I find people who dislike something are more likely to post something about it than not and people who like something less likely (which is why the internet tends to be an angry place). When I talk to people about the film, I find the number of people who like it far exceed those who don't. This isn't me saying "You are wrong because high rating". This is me saying that for a very large number of people, it DID recapture the magic and the vast majority of fans are excited again along with those who didn't care before or loss interest after the prequels.
And the Tomatometer doesn't look at average scores but shows the percent of positive reviews (meaning 93% of critics liked it, not that the average score is 93%). And fresh doesn't mean original on Rotten Tomatoes. As a reference to the produce in their name, "Rotten" means a negative review and "Fresh" means positive.

 

I do not understand either. i was just re-reading the novelization of ROTJ and was thinking about how TFA actually captured one thing: that you might be someone non-special (any given Stormtrooper, a scavenger or a pilot) but you might be part of something greater, like a farm boy or a scoundrel. The OT actually taught us that you didn't need to have a long training as a Jedi knight, being part of a long list of battles and missions or being taught in all the variations of Jedi training to become a Jedi, to be someone special and to save the galaxy. Many question how Rey, being just a scavenger girl abandoned in a junkyard of a planet was able to grow powerful so fast but that is the point of the movie, The Force awakened in her. Just seeing my little cousin in awe watching the movie or playing with his Kylo Ren scale figure - while he says "I WILL FINISH WHAT YOU STARTED" - gives me a good feeling about this. (And the new canon has helped a lot - even if it develops basically periods of time in the past, like between ANH and ESB - but it makes you curious about what happened even if you already know the outcome later on.)

 

Then I would not use the image as an argument that the movie is good. (you tried to shut up @DFF with it)
It looks that you agree with me that the ratings/reviews are distorted.

I know the website, but thanks for the good explanation. (it's spot on)

Back to the Topic: "VIII will not beat TFA at the box office"
Many people are disappointed, because TFA is not the sequel that many people wanted it to be. (to be honest, myself included)
They don't expected a remake. (maybe feared it)
So to speak the cat is out of the bag, we know what we get with VIII. (in a way)
I guess many folks are on the fence of skipping VIII. (maybe they will rent it later)
I will watch it in the cinema, because it's one of my secret hobbies to throw money out of the window.

 

That's right. Look, the PT was bad, ok? I'm not defending those films as if they were all time classics. They weren't.
However, they were closer in feel to the Original Trilogy, and they did have some magical moments sprinkled here and there.
That magic, that special feeling, that was Lucas. That came from him, and without him, there is no magic anymore.

This is why TFA from beginning to end didn't have a single magical moment in that entire film.
It was dull, and lifeless. Ironically the very criticism that was leveled at the PT.

Hollywood's greatest mimic JJ tried his best to copy Lucas (big emphasis on the word "copy") but he totally failed.

Take the "new" Cantina scene at Maz's castle for example. The original scene gave you the feeling that any second all Hell could break loose - and it did!
Where was the tension in the air in JJ's adapation? Nowhere, that's where.
The Abram's Cantina was boring, the action inside resembled a 2 out of 5 stars third party X-Box video game.

Which I thought encapsulated perfectly the failure of TFA and just how hollow and empty this supposedly great film really was.

In a sane world TFA at best would've received a 60% Tomatometer.

 

Well I mean...AOTC was a generic movie that was meant to be a literal bridge .

 

A great example.

40% at best.