SPECULATION First 2 billion dollar film?

I think it will make 200 million on the opening day.

 

First of all, two films in the past have grossed over 2 billion worldwide - Avatar and Titanic. So Star Wars wouldn't be the first if it crossed that threshold. Secondly, if you mean $2 billion domestically, Awakens has no shot at that. No film for a long while will have any shot at that (what I'm saying is only inflation will get a film over $2 billion domestically, not any insane super-hit in the near future). The highest-grossing film of all time domestically, by far, is Avatar with $760.5 million. Awakens doesn't even have much of a shot of reaching that, but at least that's more realistic. Now for my personal prediction:

At the very least, probably $1.2 billion worldwide. If it's very good, it has a chance of pushing $1.8 billion.

If you do some basic inflation calculations for the last Star Wars (Episode III), and assume that at least that many people will come out to see Episode VII (which I think is very realistic, and if anything, undershooting it, since that movie had the negativity of its two prequels preceding it, and this movie has hype a la Episode I preceding it), the opening weekend for Episode VII comes out to around $200 million (up from $158 million for Thursday to Sunday in 2005, the number of viewers from which I think we can all squish into the upcoming Friday-Sunday release), and the entire domestic take comes to around $490 million. Again, that's just straight inflation. It doesn't include the bump it will get from 3D/I-MAX premiums, or the good will that audiences have for JJ Abrams, or the fact that Episodes I and II are a much more distant memory than they were in 05. Considering those numbers, I think Star Wars making $210-$230 million its opening weekend and $520 total domestically is realistic. And this is if it's just passably good (a la Episode III). Add a cautious $700 million overseas estimate (Episode I made ~$500 million overseas in 1999 - 16 years of exponential overseas growth in movie theater viewership will easily account for another $200 million), and I think $1.2 billion is the bar for success.

 

3 billion - case closed

 

Avatar was way above the level of Star Wars, the length of time it took to make which is why it grossed more than any other movie, anyway I think TFa will have a intake of 1.1 billion.

 

Even with all big movies coming out this year, I think box office numbers will be down for everyone overall. Avengers 2 and Star Wars will probably be the two standouts that perform the strongest, but times have changed a lot since Avatar came out and the way we see movies is always evolving. With the rise of digital services like Netflix and so forth, less people are going to movies. I never imagined when I was growing up that some day millions of people all over the world would sit and stare at their phones for entertainment, but that's the way it is.

For the record, I still think Episode VII stands a very good chance of seeing $2 billion, I just don't think it'll be as easy as it would have been even just a few years ago.

 

I sure as heck hope that the big 3 and some of the new young stars were smart enough to negotiate a "percentage of the gross" type of contract. I know I would.

 

Box office genius doesn't know what he's on. TFA projections are huge because of the return of the original cast, extremely positive buzz, and the fact that it will have no competition this Winter, it does have the potential to be a billion dollar grosser domestically.

 

There's a wager thread on this topic and I could of sworn there was a discussion thread already too... but anyway, here's the wager thread if you guys want to bet on it.
http://thecantina.starwars7news.com...et-episode-vii-will-be-a-3-billion-movie.613/

 

just compare the "best" film yet (avatar) in terms of quality etc. and not just money.
then simply look at the production value of force awakens.
if you compare them both you will know that it will make around 2.5 billion
maybe not 200 million on opening weekend but it will keep on going and increasing for a long period.

 

Strangley enough, I have never seen Avatar. The previews of the movie never really appealed to me. I will probably watch it one day, just to see what the hype was about. But, it's not at the top of the stuff I would like to watch.

 

yep you should watch it to get a good idea. not my favorite film but the love story at the end is original, sort of structured like the first terminator (1984) so expect avatar 2 to compete !

 

If you have seen "Dances With Wolves" or Disney's "Pocahontas" you've seen "Avatar."

 

Yeah, I pretty much guess the entire plot from the preview.

 

No point in watching it now. It was a decent movie that was propped up due to spectacle. It was, visually, far greater than anything else of its time. Compared to where movies have come over the last 6 years, not as impressive.

For gaming fans, it'd be like playing crysis today. It was 4 years or so ahead of the curve, but nothing special by today's standards.

 

First of all, I only specifically denied the possibility of a $2 billion domestic haul. A $1 billion domestic haul is still extremely unlikely if you know anything about the box office, even accounting for the cultural phenomenon that Star Wars is. Adjusting for inflation, the original Star Wars, the most incredibly popular box office performer of all time (not withstanding the numerous re-releases of Gone With The Wind), which made $307 million in it's initial domestic run (which lasted multiple years, and within which there were in fact multiple re-releases and during which an extremely aggressive marketing campaign was maintained), "only" made $992 million in 2015 dollars. So essentially, by saying it has a good chance at making over $1 billion domestically, you're saying it has a good chance at being, empirically, a bigger hit than the original Star Wars. Do you want to revise your statement?

Source for inflation calculation (1979 is used because that was when Star Wars finally left theaters) : http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=307.00&year1=1979&year2=2015
Source for box office information: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=releases&id=starwars4.htm