SPECULATION First 2 billion dollar film?

And that's cute that you have a basic understanding of inflation but, that has nothing at all to do with projections for TFAs box office.

Also, accounting for inflation the two highest grossing films of all time domestically are still Gone With the Wind and the original Star Wars, only accounting for receipts from their original releases.

If you're gonna do napkin math box office calculations of old films that have nothing to do with TFAs box office projections, at least know wtf you're talking about

While inflation adjustments of yesterdays blockbusters show large flaws in box office statistics, inflation alone doesn't account for today's ticket prices. So while I see TFA breaking domestic box office records this Holiday season it's in take won't add up to 1977 ticket sales.

Point being for more accurate numbers you need to compare ticket costs, not just plug in an inflation calculator.

 

in your opinion how long does force awakens have to stay in theatres to reach 2 billion ?

i've seen 4 videos of brand new automated motion capture video technology that will be used for character walking balance movement in ep. 7 that i believe no one ever used before and not even in avatar. have you seen it ? its impressive.

 

no i am talking about the new mocap technology. i will find the videos for you i hope you will like what you see.

 

in there you will find detailed info & videos
http://www.disneyresearch.com/project/controlling-humanoid-robots-with-motion-capture-data/

and here is a video showing how they did the a.m.p. suit scene in avatar. they did not use new technology. in the video they show how a real practical suit was used but the animation they used were not the 100 % best.

 

With the average movie ticket projected to be $8.30 by the end of the year and your projections of over $1 billion, domestically, you believe that Awakens will sell over 120.5 million tickets, something only eight movies in history have ever done, and only one Star Wars movie in history (the original Star Wars) has ever done (and it sold less than 137.8 million tickets in its initial, unprecedented run, at an average ticket price of $2.23-$2.47 over, again, multiple re-releases). So you're expecting Awakens to sell within 17 million tickets of the original Star Wars. You're expecting Awakens to sell over 40 million more tickets than Return of the Jedi did in it's initial run ($252.6 million, avg. ticket price of $3.15, 80.2 million tickets sold), and nearly 43 million more than The Empire Strikes Back ($209.4 million, avg. ticket price of $2.69, 77.8 million tickets sold), not to mention over 35 million more than The Phantom Menace did in its initial run ($431.1 million, avg. ticket price of $5.06, 85.2 million tickets sold), a movie that was perhaps the most hyped-up in cinematic history. I patently do not see that happening.

For the record, I do think it will sell more tickets than The Phantom Menace, mainly because I believe it will be a better film and demand more repeat viewings, as well as enjoy better word of mouth. But I don't think it will outsell it by nearly an entire other blockbuster's worth of tickets (Man of Steel sold about as many tickets as you're claiming Awakens will outsell The Phantom Menace by - think about that). You'll note that the $1.2 billion I put there was a minimum, a bar for success. If I had to stake a projection, I'd say around $720 - $730 million domestically and around $1.0 - $1.1 billion internationally, for a worldwide take of $1.72 - $1.83 billion, which would still make it an historic hit, and the third-largest grosser in movie history (edit: worldwide, of course). But asking even a Star Wars movie to break the current domestic record by nearly a quarter of a billion dollars, in todays media climate and movie-going environment, is unreasonable.

Sources:
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=starwars6.htm
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=starwars5.htm
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=starwars.htm
http://natoonline.org/data/ticket-price/

 

I doubt.
In my opinion, it will be on the same track as EP III.

 

i believe a Lot of fans will see episode seven at least twice in theatres. then the real fans who waited in line for 24 hours to a week. take that into account

 

I did haha - that's why I used the other Star Wars movies as references and said "demand more repeat viewings."

$1.72 billion - $1.83 billion is just the range I think it will fall into. Now that I think about it, it's ceiling could be somewhere around $2.3 billion worldwide ($800 million domestic, $1.5 billion internationally) but that's ~ $500 million more than what I project as it's most likely take, which is not chump change.

Now, if we're talking Episode VIII, and it coming out only 1.5 years after a potentially extremely well-received and successful Episode VII, it riding on the coattails and the wave of good will might bring $1 billion domestically into the realm of (still very remote) possibility.

 

You don't understand how different box office factors are today compared to when Star Wars was released.

One significant difference today is that today's wide release films release to a much wider audience. While staying power is the test of wide appeal and overall box office records, the reason we see films breaking 100million in their first weekend is because there are more theaters and more people filling their seats.

In 1977 it was repeat viewings and a longer stay in theaters , coupled with significantly less competition that drove Star Wars box office receipts up.

You mistakingly seem to think box office and a perceived notion of quality have anything to do with each other. Nonsense it's business. Customers go to the movies in larger numbers in the holiday season, the winner is the big elephant in the room with nothing else to challenge it.

The problem with your argument is you're thinking like a fan, and not an actual business insider. There is literally nothing coming out this holiday season that is capable of competing against TFA.

So unless the film has really terrible word of mouth and no staying power, it's gonna do serious business unless people literally just don't go to the movies, which is unlikely.

Most people really don't make the decision to see a film based on months and months of anticipation and year of fandom. But a film like this will get an added boost without a doubt because Luke Skywalker back on the big screen and Han Solo has enormous appeal.

 

I'm thinking like a fan? You're the one expecting it to break $1 billion domestically. I'm the one literally using a rationale based on analysis of trends, ticket prices, inflationary calculations and historical precedent to make an educated guess backed up by facts and cited sources - your rationale has yet to use any of those factors -- instead you keeping citing "TFA projections." I'm tempering expectations, you're expecting a shattering of box office records of nearly unprecedented proportions. Who's more thinking like a fan of those two?

And of course it's going to do "serious business," but how is $730 million, which would be the second-highest domestic take of all time, not "serious business"? $1 billion domestically isn't "serious business," it's "holy s*** this is unbelievable" business.

And I realize that movies released in the winter tend to have longer legs, a la Avatar, and that's why my projections are so high - but that reason alone or the fact that there are more theaters doesn't mean I'm going to project that this movie is going to break the current record by $240 million. Luke Skywalker and Han Solo are well-beloved characters, of course, but they alone aren't going to make a $240 million + difference. "Thinking like a fan" is thinking that they will.

Listen, I'm not trying to discredit your knowledge, but did you need to flippantly call me a "genius" or say I'm "on something," or call me "cute"? We obviously disagree, but let's keep it cordial, okay? We're debating the box office numbers of a movie that's not being released for over eight months -- there's no need start name-calling. I have my reasons, you have yours. Let's keep it at that.

 

Im surrounded by money, 2 billion worth, I just hope TFA makes more than that on 18/12/15.

 

lots of accurate details but seriousely can anyone here speculate and tell me for exactly how long will ep7 be in theatres ?
5 months?

 

To late

 

Just depends on how much they make. Lord of the rings was in theaters for about a year (mostly second run theaters towards the end). The longer it makes money, the longer it will stay in theaters. With the small amount of competition in january and february, I could see it keeping a wide release for 3 months, but with only 2 showings a day towards the end.

 

sounds like 5 months is indeed a good box office income how long was titanic? I think it was 6 months anyways i cant wait