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SPECULATION Lets talk about the worst...

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' started by emphram, Oct 1, 2015.

  1. emphram

    emphram Rebel General

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    I've noticed I get a lot of flaming or negative ratings whenever I suggest that the marketing team at Lucasfilm / Disney (or whoever is calling the shots) is making a mistake by delaying the theatrical trailer for this film. If you are the type of person who gets offended and enters a nerd fit of rage whenever you read something like this, then I suggest you steer clear of this thread for your own good. This thread is reserved for the realists and pessimists, regardless of how small of a minority we may be.

    I guess we can be broken down into two categories (some of you may belong to both):
    A) The film will suck or not live up to expectations
    B) The film will not make what they think it will make in the box office.

    I personally identify mostly with B at the moment, and yes, this is directly related to the withholding of marketing for the film. Every time you release a little info, you generate a burst in hype, but if left unattended it will fade out. The buzz from teasers 1 and 2 has mostly died out, and force Friday did not have anywhere near as much of an impact (toy stores here still fully stocked). Its hard for a lot of us fans to see this because we are biased and Star Wars is on our minds most of the day (one of the first things I do every day is check this site and a couple others).

    On the other hand, the average Joe couldn't care less. There's a couple teasers that are visually stunning but tell him nothing about the film. Not really much to be excited about. Plus those last 3 films were terrible. He's also probably older and no longer interested in Star Wars.

    It is abundantly clear to me that they are making this film with great care and respect, but I feel that they have not rekindled the attraction from the general audience, and releasing the trailer late October or November could spell a less than expected box office result (which in turn means some people might lose their job). During the Christmas season, going to the movies is the last thing on your mind. People are busy with vacations, parties, presents, school, flu, etc... going to a movie that they just found out about a couple weeks ago doesn't mix well.

    They probably are banking heavily on the nostalgia aspect, hoping the brand will sell itself, but being too close to something like Star Wars can easily turn into not seeing the forest for the trees. Therefore, I conclude SW:TFA is at risk of under performing at the box office, which can have a negative impact on the rest of the sequel trilogy (lower budget, people wrongfully blamed and fired, major changes in direction as a consequence, etc.)

    I felt the need to start this thread and find my comrades amoung the community. Come on in and lets talk about the worst.
     
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  2. Trevor

    Trevor Rebellion Arms Supplier
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    While I agree that they've waited too long, you're almost asking to be attacked by those that won't agree. Just sayin...
     
    #2 Trevor, Oct 1, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2015
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  3. shazboz

    shazboz Rebel Trooper

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    Well to be blunt you are being hyper pessimistic. Going into every trailer discussion and shutting everyone's optimism down isn't the greatest way for people to see your side.

    You're just inviting the people who flame you in other threads to this one.
     
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  4. Mad As A Hatter 1313

    Mad As A Hatter 1313 Rebel General

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    One day I would love to find out who is the one making the marketing decisions, because that person is an idiot. Leaving the final push till the last minute is just begging for trouble. In just about a month and a half the holidays will be here and won't have time to pay attention, is that what they want people seeing the trailer or tv spots as background noise while they plan their vacations? Something about this just doesn't feel right, like they just don't care because they assume everyone will just show up. They haven't done anything to connect to fans, unless you want to buy stuff.

    I'm just not that excited for TFA, I'm excited for Star Wars, I'm excited for a cast who I love(new and old)but I'm not excited for the movie itself because I know nothing about it. I shouldn't have to base my opinion on a movie I want to love from rumors and speculation that I read on fansites. I shouldn't have to trust some guys on the internet who heard some things from unnamable sources or hope someone will leak something for their 15 seconds of fame. I really, really want to love this movie, but I just can't yet.

    I would also like to point out some weather predictions have this as being a very bad winter, all it would take is one arctic vortex like last year and people really won't go see a movie they know nothing about. Not to mention the Cat 2, possibly becoming a Cat 4 hurricane making landfall this weekend, if it is bad large parts of the east coast could be flooded and without power for weeks.
     
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  5. emphram

    emphram Rebel General

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    You are spot on. I hadn't even considered the weather part. Certainly some people are just expecting way too much from nostalgia.

    Well, better here than derailing someone else's thread right? Besides, everyone here should have a right to express opposite opinions without being downvoted to death.
     
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  6. Dinster

    Dinster Rebelscum

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    cold weather didn't seem to be a problem for people with Titanic (the audiences of the 1997 film, not the actual passengers of course).

    Granted, the idea of two bland star-crossed lovers on the most famous ship ever is easier to understand and relate to than an epic space opera; I stand by my belief that the general public has ADD and only cares about a film once it appears on their TV screens and their popcorn tubs and what-have-you.
     
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  7. emphram

    emphram Rebel General

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    Exactly. I don't remember much about the marketing of Titanic, but I think I remember it being "everywhere" back then. Was the weather that bad back in 97?
     
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  8. xDarthDx

    xDarthDx Rebel Commander

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    I do agree that the idea for the marketing is bad, but never the less being the star wars fan that I am I can't help but stay positive. But I also won't deny I do have my doubts about the movie...
     
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  9. Dinster

    Dinster Rebelscum

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    Well I was only 1 in 1997; my comments come from secondary sources of course, my guess would be that December blockbusters work because of cold weather, not despite it.

    Take Django Unchained, for example (released Christmas 2012). A Tarantino post-modernist spaghetti Western about slavery made almost $500 million at the box office worldwide; I and many others trudged through the snow to the theater.

    If Django can do it in December, then who's to say TFA can't knock it out of the park with an internet-breaking third trailer, then a month condensed with TV spots and interviews and new speculations, then two-and-a-half weeks of anticipation until judgement day?
     
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  10. It's a Trap

    It's a Trap Rebel Official

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    Never has the lack of a 2 and a half minute clip caused so many internet meltdowns... I don't own stock in Disney so why should I care what the movie makes as long as it's good? People get so caught up in BO numbers like its a sport or something that it ruins the experience for them if their favorite movie doesn't live up to financial expectations. It's kind of irrational. They are making more movies regardless of whether or not this one makes money, so why worry about it?
     
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  11. xDarthDx

    xDarthDx Rebel Commander

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    I agree with you, but a lot of people fear that the franchise will lose/ have a budget cut and that means a lower quality move or a cut of the franchise all together
     
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  12. It's a Trap

    It's a Trap Rebel Official

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    I understand that, but that's not what I'm talking about. Let's say the movie makes $160M on its opening weeks domestic, and $380M WW. Those are HUGE numbers that have already covered the budget of the movie in ONE weekend. However, they aren't record breaking numbers and fans will be disappointed. The movie will make over a billion dollars without question. They could literally put out no footage and just drop the movie on the 18th and it will make a billion dollars. There was also a recent article saying Disney will make $5 B to $7 B in toy sales alone in the coming years from Star Wars. The movies will have huge budgets regardless and the directors and dates for FIVE movies have already been set. Nothing is affecting that whatsoever. So unless all 5 of them only make 50% of what is expected, we don't need to worry about money.
     
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  13. Duke Groundrunner

    Duke Groundrunner Rebel Official

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    I'm not on cloud nine about the situation.
     
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  14. Mad As A Hatter 1313

    Mad As A Hatter 1313 Rebel General

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    Well at least there is one movie that really knows how to treat its loyal fans. They made us feel like a real part of everything they did. And we didn't have to buy anything
    deadpool1-gallery-image.jpg
     
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  15. darrenkitlor

    darrenkitlor Rebelscum

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    I think a lot of adult moviegoers have lost our sense of wonder.

    We're like my kid growing jaded from "pop goes the weasel." We go into the films, expect the beats and the spoilers, and are underwhelmed afterward. We kill our weasels.

    Sometimes being a fan means I'm the one who sucks going into a film: I've ruined it for myself.

    The last film that I felt giddy about was Guardians. All I knew was that it had a raccoon and the trailer looked pretty dumb. I was wrong. I felt like a kid watching Return of the Jedi for the first time.
     
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  16. Grand Master Galen Marek

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  17. markdeez

    markdeez Rebel Commander

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    I live in the South. 95% of people down here don't go on Holiday vacations. They just can't afford it, especially with the Christmas shopping season on deck. What do those people do during the holidays? They sit around and watch TV. They sit around on their cell phones and post on social media. They sit on their laptops and watch Youtube. There will be PLENTY of people transfixed on TV screens that will inevitably see a TV spot or trailer. Ever since the economy went belly up in 2008, most people just kick back and relax, in their down time. That is, people that don't make over 100K a year, and don't go on vacation, and obviously, this isn't everybody, but it's a big chunk.
     
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  18. Rieekan

    Rieekan SWNN Hawkeye
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    Titanic is a great example that marketing isn't everything. It had a mediocre start with around 50m opening week and a rise in the second week for about 30%. people told other poeple to go an watch it, and it had a steady income in the following weeks to maker it big.
     
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  19. Mark Y Moon

    Mark Y Moon Rebelscum

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    TL;DR I think Star Wars is a strong enough IP to respond well to the weird marketing campaign. That could still backfire. Us core fans are understandably annoyed at the lack of info, but it suits the general public just fine.

    I believe we are still yet to see the main marketing push. They're running this like a horse race, saving their speed for the final straight. We are currently on the bend just before that straight.

    As with a race, if you leave that burst too late, you can't catch up - but if you run too early you run out of speed.

    Yay for analogies!

    Also, films that release in the same season aren't necessarily market competitors - many moviegoers will see two or more films a season. You need to analyze the core demographics of the viewers. Hunger Games has a lot of recent data because they have released a film every year for the last few years. TFA is running on predictions. Whilst there is some crossover, I don't think it will be a major issue.

    Looking at all the other films releasing around now, and around Christmas and November, they are playing that marketing game. TFA looks like it is trying to change the rules of the game itself. Like they think they are big enough to re-write how you market a blockbuster. That could fall on it's arse (ass for Murrikans), or it could knock it out of the park. I think, personally, Star Wars is a strong enough IP to carry it, and versatile enough to work well with the mystery game.

    People that I talk to who aren't mad fans still know it's happening. They aren't super hyped, but the awareness is there. They will build that closer to the release date because mega hype for two months would be difficult to sustain in the general public, and would risk appearing tacky and desperate.
     
  20. Dark Toilet

    Dark Toilet Force Sensitive

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    Without taking a side, I will say that it will be very interesting to see what the reactions are in threads like this after the first weekend BO numbers are in. Chances are, some people are going to be very surprised one way or the other. And it will be fun to see how it is rationalized.
     
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