Box Office Thread

OK, I'm aiming somewhere between RO and TFA, but definitely closer to TFA. One of the crucial factors is that many casual moviegoers who saw TFA may be interested in checking out the sequel more than RO. However, with RO it's hard to judge whether the drop was conditioned by some kind of "fatigue" (maybe that's a wrong word, I just mean it wasn't "Star Wars is back!" again) or maybe some people were not as interested in spin-offs (I know such people personally).

Here are my rough guesses:

Before Final Trailer
Opening Weekend
Domestic opening weekend: $195 million
Worldwide opening weekend: $440 million

Total is extremely hard to predict right now... We don't know how the general public will react, but looking at the current records, it should land between 1.3 and 1.7 billion IMO.

Total
Domestic total: $760 million
International total: $900 million
Worldwide total: $1.66 billion

 

Domestic open - 210million
World open - 460 million

Domestic total - 880 million

World total - 900

Total - 1.780 billion.

 

The second Star Wars trilogy films have dipped in the past.

That was back when it used to go 3 years between releases but now it is 2 years between releases for VII and VIII and IX currently and that was back when there were no in-between Star Wars releases like Rogue One and Han Solo.



http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=starwars.htm

 

I'm not good at predicting but I will say that TLJ will do very well at the BO, but not quite like TFA.

 

I think reaching TFA is a bit unrealistic and an unfair comparison. I think TLJ will have the second highest domestic opening weekend and finish in the top 10 all-time BO.

 

Before/After Final Trailer
Opening Weekend
Domestic opening weekend: $200 million
Worldwide opening weekend: $N/A

Total
Domestic total: $850 million
International total: $1.2 billion
Worldwide total: $2 billion

 

Second chapter.is.always the weakest in make money for the SW movies.

I never gave much attention to the box offices. Just deliver us a great movie and a beatiful poster to frame it and put it.on the wall.

 

Episode IV -> Episode V = 31.8 % decline in domestic gross
Episode I -> Episode II = 29.8% decline in domestic gross

That's an average of a 30.8% decline which would put The Last Jedi at ~$648 million domestically.

But Rogue One is also a factor which may herald a bigger decline with The Last Jedi. There was an even bigger decline internationally for Rogue One than domestically compared to The Force Awakens.

Episode VII -> Rogue One = 43.2% decline in domestic gross
Episode VII -> Rogue One = 53.7% decline in international gross

If you take that $648 and include that 43.2% decline in the average (31.8% + 29.8% + 43.2% / 3) it comes to ~$610 million domestically.

But if goes the other way - a smaller decline than the past movies - it could do $700 million as well.

So let's say a $600-700 million range to cover it.

I think they should be happy just to do better than Rogue One considering how the theaters have been performing this year.

Internationally it's harder to gauge because the world has changed (way more theaters and screenings exist as well as more markets) a lot since the release of the OT and even the PT. But I assume a decline in popularity internationally as well.

Total
Domestic total: $600-700 million
International total: $730-830 million
Worldwide total: $1.33-1.53 billion

 

I think TLJ has a strong chance of having the best sequel performance by a lot, which is great. And by that I mean a sequel that came out sooner than, let's say, 5 years after its predecessor. TFA and Jurassic World don't fall into this category, because they're more like franchise reboots from the business point of view.

If TLJ beats JW - that's the best scenario. It's obviously the biggest success they can realistically aim at. Fingers crossed for edging out Avengers. (I'm talking worldwide total.) If TLJ takes the spot directly below TFA across all rankings - that would be crazy good. And I don't think it's impossible!

 

If the film is as good as the buzz seems to suggest, keeping people and nerds like us going back and back again, then it could be anywhere between $1.9-2.2 billion dollars...

 

i was out of work and had nothing to do but go to the theatre when TFA came out (i literally watched it every tuesday on discount day).
my whole life has flipped since then, so i'll be lucky to see TLJ a handful of times in the theatre this go-round (though i will try to see it as often as i can!).

i'm no good at predicting numbers, but history does suggest that it won't do quite as as well as the first.
i'm all for being totally wrong, though; who doesn't want this movie to blow everything else out of the water (and then some!) : D

 

I'm hoping it'll do better than TFA, and I'll probably see it once with friends, and once with my mum.

 

I'm pretty sure I'll break my own record of multiple viewings of a single film. Currently it's 3 (for TFA and RO). I saw Revenge of the Sith and Whiplash* 2 times and I think that's it for my history of multiple viewings.

*Seems random, but that film is soooo good.

 

my previous record is for Dances with Wolves back in 1990 (i think) for reasons i cannot even begin to explain.
let's just say movies were $1 back then and there wasn't much else going on that summer.

 

You must keep in mind the divided Rey fan base. I guarantee if Rey & KR become related there is no way the Reylo Shippers will c this movie 30 times each. Like wise if Rey is not a Skywalker I wont c it 30 times. My 1 billion 700 million prediction is most fair.

I do plan 2 c it......

Once in IMAX, 3D, Dolby, standard & maybe again w/ friends & family if they want 2 go.

 

Sorry for going slightly off topic, but during my first TFA screening one guy shouted "Han dies" out loud... It didn't really affect me, because I expected that (I mean Han dying), but damn... How much of an a-hole you have to be to do something like this? I was shocked. That's the craziest thing I've ever witnessed in cinema.

 

I had a dream that TLJ was so good that when I left the theater I immediately purchased tickets for the next showing. I've never done that before, must be trailer withdrawal... where is the TLJ trailer?
Any who, I predict TLJ will make somewhere between 1 to 1.5 billion. I do believe that the Han Solo film will do better than R1. I'd say 1.2 billion.

--- Double Post Merged, Sep 18, 2017, Original Post Date: Sep 18, 2017 ---

Yeah, I heard some guy did that and they beat him up for it. Thats not right...

TPM 4x
AOTC 3x
ROTJ 2x
TFA 4x
RO 3x