OFFICIAL NEWS A Lasting Record Of TFA's Financial Performance.

Thanks. So given that, and the fact that it hasn't opened in China yet, and holds the record for world-wide opening weekend anyway, I'm feeling pretty good about the international box office.

 

I agree.... the numbers are off with China opening at a late date

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 4, 2016, Original Post Date: Jan 4, 2016 ---

GREAT NEWS!














BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice 11 Sek.vor 11 Sekunden


STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS took in $90.24M this weekend and has grossed $742.21M to date domestically. #TheForceAwakens

 

There were pretty big week to day drops on Saturday (39% drop from previous Saturday) and Sunday (50%).

If TFA maintains a 30% week to day drop, it will hit $1 billion domestic sometime in its' fifth week, and 1.2 billion sometime in its 11th or 12th week.
If TFA goes to a 40% week to day drop, it will hit $1 billion domestic some time in its' sixth week.
If TFA goes to a 50% week to day drop, it probably won't hit $1 billion. It will end somewhere between 940 and 950 million.

 

That's the value of looking at the graphic representations of the box office take. It's hard to project a scenario where TFA doesn't make $1 bil domestically. It would have to have weaker legs than any other blockbuster in modern times for it to come in under $1 bil. I don't think that's even a possibility. So I'm thinking your prediction of week five is about right, maybe a little bit sooner.

Plus, the fact that we're even discussing that figure puts the movie head and shoulders above any other movie in history, since no other movie has done it. Or even come close.

 

I wish I could take any special credit. I just put numbers into a spreadsheet and factored in 30/40/50 attrition. That's what the numbers showed.

 

That's ambitious! I just looked at the slope of the sales plotted against days since opening night, and took a guess.
Honestly, TFA's performance is not like any movie, ever. We are (or will be) into literal uncharted territory. But, based on other movies' performance over time, there still is a long, long way to go before this film runs out of gas.

 

it might pass Titanic.....

we will see how the drops are since school is back in session.

at worst it will follow the Transformer front loaded type drop2 and finish with 2.0 billion WW

that would make it third all time

However, it will have the all-time domestic record for a long time.....

I don't see a film going to do 900 million for sometime. Not even Avatar 2......... unless it's 4D and only China does 4D right now, lol

I hope is passes Titanic....

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 5, 2016, Original Post Date: Jan 5, 2016 ---

I a guessing a 9.2 million Monday BTW!

some of my friends who love the BOX OFFICE say 6-7

I'll go higher ;-)

 

Yeah, it is.
Well, at least until Gone With The Force beats it.

 

I'm not sure what we would learn adjusting for inflation & comparing Gone With The Wind or Star Wars to movies made in the last twenty years. Back then, if you had any interest in seeing a film, you'd have to go to the theater to watch it. If you liked it, you'd have to see it a few times because one could never be sure when it would be shown again. Maybe never if it didn't come out on TV.
There was no waiting for it to come out on DVD (which is how I see most current movies). And never mind streaming.

On the other hand, the population was so much smaller back then- when you think of it that way, those movies were mind-bogglingly popular in a way no movie probably ever will be again- especially GWTW.

Anyway, I'm not sure it's even possible anymore to gauge the absolute popularity of a movie. But if someone tried, for sure they'd have to include DVD rentals along with ticket sales.

 

The Monday drop was huge (74%* last Monday to this Monday), and, from a certain point of view, to be expected assuming that Winter Break is over.

It also looks like Biff's graph is showing a figurative inflection point, and the movie could easily start to flatten out like Avengers or Jurassic World. In that case, it would "struggle" to reach $950 million domestic. On the other hand, it could have some amount of Titanic/Avatar-type staying power.

I'll wait on another full week's worth of data before I update my 30/40/50 drop projection. Hope I don't have to add a 60 line.

* edited, thanks @Darth Daigo

 

It is actually a little worse. The Monday-to-Monday drop is 74%. The 63% is from Sunday to Monday. However, most movies showed decreases of this magnitude. Only Hateful Eight had an increase compared to last week due to its expansion.

 

I know it's 4 hours old but anyone seen this.
http://variety.com/2016/film/news/star-wars-box-office-avengers-furious-7-1201672344/

 

Everyone going back to work/school is obviously going to have a huge impact on weekday ticket sales. It will be interesting to see just what the happens in the coming weeks. No other movie has ever done anything remotely close to what TFA did over the last three weeks, so there is literally no model that can predict what it might do from here on out.

Even if it fades faster than a standard blockbuster, it will still end up the highest grossing movie in US history, so the final assessment can only be positive. The only question is how positive. This coming weekend will tell us a lot. It could slip 60% compared to last weekend, or the decrease in weekday traffic could push more business into the weekend. We'll just have to see what happens.

 

The big Monday drop was because everyone is back at work/school, whereas last Monday, kids were home from school and likely their parents were on Christmas break as well.

 

But it did show a possible sign of "weakness". TFA had every daily record except first Saturday (JW, Avengers) until yesterday. TFA failed to wrest the third Monday record from . . . Avatar.

 

Sadly only 8 million on monday. It might not make the domestic billion this way Lets hope MLK day cant boost it.