OFFICIAL NEWS A Lasting Record Of TLJ's Financial Performance.

What's wrong with thinking that both films did great?

By saying that TLJ did bad by evidence of BP is to say that BP isn't actually doing anything remarkable.

Cheers,
Jayson

p.s. TLJ did not under-perform.

 

Nothing at all, fictional stories are quite popular.

Umm.. are you outside the USA and don't understand the analogy? A #16 taking down a #1 is quite remarkable and had never been done before.

#nod. It only made less money than everyone was expecting. #wink.

 

And saying that a #1 performed poorly and that is the reason the #16 beat the #1 devalues how well the #16 did.
If the #1 played well and the #16 won then the #16's success is truly impressive.
If the #1 did poor and the #16 won, then the #16 didn't do anything amazing; the #1 did something terrible.


I have also said that film success doesn't work this way of rank holding because Disney doesn't suddenly go back and lower the success finance of TLJ because BP does so well.

Cheers,
Jayson

 

Nice try, but no.... I specifically mentioned that it was underperformance by one team combined with overperformance by another that allowed the giantkilling, just like a #16 vs a #1. A #1 missing baskets and committing fouls only gets you so far, the #16 has to really overperform to get there and slay the #1.

135 times a #16 tried. Its a combination of the two, both things have to occur. The #1 has to fall on its face AND the #16 has to have a good game. Its not like #1's hadn't performed poorly before.

Go back to analysis... good lord you're bad at sports.

I know... but then, Disney already knows TLJ didn't do as expected and performed poorly. Its kind of unique here in that its more an intramural match up given Disney owns both.

But Disney is going to put as good a spin on TLJ's underperformance(sorry... failure to meet expectations) as they can.​

 

Can you show any document anywhere which shows that Disney considered TLJ to have under-performed or fail to meet expectations?

Cheers,
Jayson

 

This whole Black Panther vs. The Last Jedi comparison is pretty silly. These aren't films competing against each other. I liked them both as did many others.

 

LOL. This isn't a court of law. The numbers speak for themselves. Either they consider it to have underperformed, or they're blooming idiots and should be fired. That said, they can spin it any way they like so long as they don't lie, particularly given it made some money. So far the only thing they ever said about it was that it did great in comparison to Rogue One, which is quite true. That you keep wanting to leave off that qualifier(in comparison to Rogue One) is hilarious.

Get back to me when they actually talk about its performance versus internal expectations. It'll be a while, and I don't think you'll be happy when they do.

 

So you don't have anything to suggest that Disney thinks that it underperformed, meanwhile there is documented evidence of Disney claiming it a success in multiple ways, and your understanding of this is that Disney is covering it up in a TLJ-gate conspiracy.

What would have been enough for you?

Cheers,
Jayson

 

I don't need anything from Disney, WE HAVE THE NUMBERS.

OMG... in relation to Rogue One it did SUPER DUPER! Nobody cares.

So far they haven't even put anything out concerning its performance vs internal expectations, so they could start there! But they won't.

I don't care how it did against Rogue One lol. It could have lost another $200 million and made $1.1 billion and it would still be a financial success in comparison to Rogue One haha.

 

Rather than repeat already extant conversation in a loop, let's cut to the root:

What is your standard threshold value for financial success for a movie?

Cheers,
Jayson

 

This is turning into 80s Tyson vs everyone

 

Read the previous posts about the x-factors and historic reasons about the BP and you'll see why it's doing well. you're totally ignoring the X-factors that BP has which the TLJ didn't have. Why is BP even in conversation? since when did Marvel and SW become competitors? Marvel competition is DC. With your logic, once Infinity War surpass BP numbers, BP will considered to be under-performer. Your point about BP is irreverent and it's just you trying to find something that supports your biased. Unless you can point to an exact threshold on what TLJ should of made vs what it made, TLJ is considered a success and is in the ballpark on what a sequel should make.

 

Because winning is winning and Star Wars fans pride themselves on the gross of their movies. How do we know this? We have a nearly 50 page thread like this one. So comparing it to something that beat it just two months after release, is apropos.

And X-Factors? The only true X-Factor that matters is that people liked Black Panther across the board. The Lost Jedi? Not so much. Star Wars is actually coming from a place of far deeper fandom than BP ever was. How about that for an X-factor? For it to 'only' gross $618 million is like saying that Babe Ruth only hitting 40 home runs is good. Not really.. but hey.. its 40 home runs right?! Better than most!

Since the dawn of time when SW fans declared their movies the best because of the money they made. At that point, comparisons against other movies on that metric have always been fair game because SW fans have been doing that. And don't even try to say SW fans don't, or we wouldn't have threads like these where every last movement is tracked and every bad movement is spun as if the person were a Washington DC Political Hack.

 

So many generalizations. You forgot that BP is a huge cultural movie (African roots) and it came out during Black History month. Those 2 X-Factors is something that SW will never have and never will. Not to mention, not everyone like SW, so you have people watching BP who normally wouldn't watch SW. You clearly don't understand the cultural impact BP created among the minorities. You say SW fans has metric on their numbers, so you tell me what the metric is because I sure don't know it. Like I mention before which you cannot no give me an legitimate source, what is the exact threshold on what a SW movie should make? Since this is about the TLJ what is the minimum threshold that TLJ should make versus what it made? Just because it made below what you, your friends or some random YouTube person who's not any more accurate than the weather man, doesn't mean it under performed. It just under-performed in your expectations which isn't consensus among the SW community. If you are think it was suppose to equal or surpass TFA, than the joke is on you and you're foolish to think that. NO FUTURE SW MOVIE WILL EVER BRING IN THOSE NUMBERS. Once again, the only numbers I see is that TLJ made over billion (which is extremely good in today age) and the numbers are on par on what a sequel makes (Episode 2 & 5).

 

@ScumAndVillainy
What is your standard threshold value for financial success for a movie?

Cheers,
Jayson

 

And so it begins.

We're starting to get far enough out that people are cutting through the fanboi and corporate spin and getting to the point. TLJ underperformed internal expectations. Full stop.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/ne...roubled-production/ar-BBKIk5A?ocid=spartanntp

On its own or as part of a series?

A movie that is part of a series that clearly underperforms its expectations can have ramifications down the line that carry over to the rest of the series. TLJ doesn't exist in a vacuum. How it performs effects everything that comes after it.

As an example, The Avengers: Infinity War is the 20th movie in the overall MCU and it will likely be the best performer to date. If it drops like TLJ did, expect Marvel execs to find the nearest window. They didn't get there by having the first 19 take ~40% body blows. This isn't 1980, they know how to make multi-movie franchises that perform well, and having the 2nd film dip ~40% is usually catastrophic. The only saving grace being TFA having started it from a very high amount, such that it still made money.

If the movie is purely a standalone endeavor with no effects on anything else, financial success is simply determined by whether the movie made more money than it cost to make and promote it. On its own, TLJ can be considered a financial success. As a part in an overall series, the damage it has done is likely considerable.
​

 

So what is the threshold?

Cheers,
Jayson

 

@ScumAndVillainy
I'm not trolling you.
I'm asking for clarification.

You gave me half of your threshold.

You gave me the abstract concept of the other half of your threshold:

So I do not yet have your threshold outlined for films which are part of a series.

How do you gauge whether a film within a series has performed successfully or not?

Cheers,
Jayson

 

It depends on the film series at hand. Star Wars is actually fairly unique in that there are really two tracks at the moment. The standalones, and the numbered films. The numbered films being the 'flagship', with the standalones expected to make far less given they're a new story.

In general, for a film in a series, you'd like a movie to make as much, if not more, than its lead-in. For an Episode 8, that's Episode 7.

As that is fairly unrealistic in this scenario, you want the drop-off to be as unnoticeable as possible so the slide is gradual and you can pop back up on your next film. This is why Disney set internal expectations very low @ 1.5billion, a 25% dropoff. Its an easy bar to hit that allows them to say it made what they were expecting. In essence, a way of subtlely adjusting the goalposts in case the film ended up on the low-side.

Had the movie made $1.7 billion, more in line with what analysts(and fans) were actually expecting, Disney could rightfully say it exceeded expectations, even though it made less than its lead-in, which overperformed and was an outlier.

That the movie didn't even clear this low bar of $1.5 billion, and didn't do it by $200 million, means the movie underperformed. There is literally no other word for it. The exact # is like a 36.6% dropoff, and at these price points means that it lost more money from its lead-in ($800 million), than most movies make. That doesn't happen just because, it happens because people didn't go to the movie in the amounts they did previously, signaling a lot of air coming out of the franchise.

The one thing to be absolutely avoided is what they got. A film that actually may piss off core fans enough that they don't go back. Given this series has always been very repeat-viewing dependent for its large grosses, that causes a lot of damage to the next film.

Either way, if you're looking for some hard 'threshold' that signifies financial success between movies of a franchise, you're tilting at windmills because movies typically still get made until either money stops being made, or there is an indication that the next one in the set will not make its money back. Essentially, you want to stay above water as long as you can, and when you can't.. you shift strategy. Massive shifts lower in gross from previous to successor, simply speed up that shift in strategy, as it becomes much harder to make money.

And if you lose the fans, you likely will not get them back.