OFFICIAL NEWS A Lasting Record Of TLJ's Financial Performance.

Not even once lol. It just didn't matter to me and this has always been 'The Cantina'.

I mean.. seriously.. its funny as hell(i'm still laughing), but I can't be the only one that literally just found out this site had a 'proper name' of Star Wars News Net.

You might want to work on the branding... but honestly, The Cantina is a far better name and likely what i'll remember this as.

Oh.. and in actual news... actuals for Avengers: IW are $258 million/$641 overseas OW.

Edit: Looks like Box Office Mojo hasn't called them actuals yet but simply adjusted the estimates.

 

https://thecantina.starwarsnewsnet.com





I say the following as a guy who didn't notice that my wife and kids had put up the Christmas tree sitting right in front of me.



Cheers,
Jayson

 

"Really.. this is legit the funniest thing to me today." ... Couldn't have said it better

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 30, 2018, Original Post Date: Apr 30, 2018 ---

Kinda reminds me of bad parenting when parents are always comparing one child to the other and are condescending because one doesn't do what the golden child has.

 

It's literally a form of poor argument forming called relative privation (which is a sub-set of moral relativism), specifically a sub-set called relative merit (or simply, "not as good as"), and they're easy to spot because the argument applies some other subject (i.e. person, organization, thing, etc...) or its achievements as the goal line by which it is then proposed that the subject under discussion has therefore failed to accomplish the required goal, in spite of the fact that such a comparison is not the means of judging the value or success of the subject under discussion.

The one that scores of children have experienced in their lives is:
"I passed!"
"Yeah, but it's not an <insert higher grade>."

Which implies that the "pass" isn't actually worth noting because it wasn't a different goal.

Another that folks see in discussions revolving around politics a lot is closer to what's going on here:
"These <insert group of people> (implying a comparison to some previously discussed group) are the people who really deserve <insert what they deserve> because they <insert merit>."

Or

"These <insert group of people> are the ones really <insert merit>."

A more specific, and common, example of this is dismissing protesters' value to society by comparing them to the praised merit of soldiers.


In this case, all we have to do to "prove" that "what made Star Wars special is gone", is state that it isn't doing as well as another franchise.

We can even do this without needing the comparison to the other franchise, which has happened a LOT in this thread.
Then all we have to do is claim that it's not doing as well as it should be doing.
This is a form of that, "Yeah, but your passing grade isn't what it should be", implying therefore that it's not really a good passing grade.

I have a different name for this, "Best Chasing". It's a subset of Undefined Terms, and Relative Merit.
It's basically where a proposition argues that the merit of something should be dismissed because it is not the best that it should have been, even though the best that it should have been is never clearly defined.
Further, therefore, since the merit has in this way been dismissed, we can also dismiss the subject of discussion entirely.

Ads in the United States repeatedly do this.
If it's not the best, why bother? <insert brand name>

Which, for one brand currently, has been shortened even further to, "The best or nothing".
Which, to me, I always want to answer: "You know. You're right. I should have the best car or nothing. I can't afford the best car. Therefore, I should just walk. Cheers!"

I said it a bunch of pages back, but the merit of TLJ stands entirely on its own. Comparisons to other films is neat for relative comparisons, but it doesn't establish or change the goal line of success of the asset, and especially not the franchise.

Disney's not sitting around and looking at one franchise that's succeeding monetarily, comparing it to another that is succeeding monetarily, and then putting on the Lexus hat and saying, "Whelp. The best or nothing!"

By that logic, you'd be forced into a form of False Dilemma where inevitably you can only have one franchise because "best" is only capable of being mutually owned.


Cheers,
Jayson

 

New notes from the Infinity War annihilation.

* With an estimated $112 million in its second weekend, The Last Jedi remains the only movie to gross at least $200 million in its first weekend, but be unable to reach $100 million(it barely managed $70 million) in its second.

* In *11 DAYS*, The Last Jedi's total foreign run($712 million) was snapped by Infinity War($713 million), illustrating what a dud TLJ was overseas. And IW has yet to open in China.

* In *11 DAYS*, Infinity War is now $168 million away from TLJ's total gross (currently $1.164 billion, TLJ @ $1.332 billion).

Things to watch:

* TFA's domestic record should be safe(nobody is expecting IW to make $935 million in a competitive summer), but overall its looking in combination with Infinity War going large overseas, that the total run may be competitive.

* Black Panther is inching closer to $700 million, and Marvel could very well have two $700 million domestic earners in 2018. An impressive feat.. particularly in the wake of TLJ's underperformance.

 

I fail see how a difference of ONE MILLION is considered a "dud" overseas.... yes it was a dud in a China.

 

I think that comparing TLJ with Infinity War is a little unfair (its match is TFA). But I agree about the "weak" foreign run. As I said before, I think that the Star Wars appeal is declining (even without China in the equation) outside US/Europe. The MCU, Fast and Furious and some other movies (like Beauty and the Beast last year) are making more money overseas. And I know that someone will probably reply with " it's not a competition", but it isn't for us, for the companies it is always a competition, even if they are under the same umblella. Disney probably is happy, but be sure that there is competition between Marvel, Lucasfilm, and any other company.

 

It's only a competition if you are fighting for the same dollar...i.e. released roughly at the same time.

They weren't and aren't fighting for the same buck here, so there's no competition.
All that matters is that they balance their books on the return.

Cheers,
Jayson

 

Yes, you made a good point. Disney would never be so dumb to put its 2 big franchises to fight each other at the same time. But these records and stuff bring prestige, and people care too much about these numbers these days. If you make a quick search on the web, people are cheering, doing memes and others bs about the first weekend record break by IW, as if Marvel is some kind of "hero" beating the "villain" lead by "Empress Kennedy". I think that mouth to mouth was the reason to TLJ ruge drops, and people are REALLY giving too much credit about numbers and these things these days. So thats why I'm talking about competition, the salty fans are and will use this numbers as attack, and I dont know if it can damage the brand if things continue like this in the next years. It could be nothing, but I'm particularly worried. But, maybe you are right, in the end it means nothing. Only time will tell.

 

Right.. because IW lapping TLJ 11 days in, without having yet opened in China, is good box office? TLJ wasn't even a speed bump. As the saying goes...If they're even, IW is leavin.

IW is likely to nearly double TLJ's foreign take at this pace, but that's what happens when you have a movie that hits at the foreign box office.

In short, Yes, $712 million for your entire run is horrible and is now the #25th all-time. Couldn't even pass Ice Age: Continental draft. Remember that one? Neither do I.

Also.. I do agree with DarthBiger that the comparison here is unfair(its a bit like putting a heavyweight against a flyweight) and the real comparison should be with its similar top tier movies like TFA, Jurassic World, Titanic, Avatar. The point being is that TLJ simply isn't in that league because it did underperform(and its the subject of this financial analysis thread, so a comparison of its numbers against those of an actual top flight modern performer is apt). Furthermore, it was supposed to be in that league given it was a flagship product and following up the #3 film worldwide of all-time and #1 domestically.

It does bear mentioning that Solo opens on the 25th, and anything less than a $150 mil OW is an unmitigated disaster and point to some level of brand aversion setting in as a result of TLJ. $155 mil is Rogue One money. It shouldn't be hard to hit, particularly given its being released in the summer. Even at that, its probably an uphill battle given the noted production problems and basically having to make the film twice, pushing the budget into that of a top-tier Saga film, while being situated as a stand-alone new adventure.

 

Oh, it's fine.
Salty fans have always been.

Let's keep in mind that salty fans caused Lucas to walk away from Star Wars because he was tired of being "yelled at all the time".

Fads come and go, but complaining, issuing hate, and claiming alleged superior alternatives are eternal fashions.

People have done that even without having granular box office records to complain and bicker with.
It's pretty impressive reading old ESB fan response letters which read quite similar to the same things we see today.

I think the brands will be fine.
Disney is huge and knows how to manage content and brand control like no one else.
They have seen dark ages MUCH worse than most any company, and rebirthed to what we have today.

Cheers,
Jayson

 

If only Kathleen Kennedy would do that...

The difference being that they shifted course as a result of the response to TESB. With the ST, they're pushing it right over that cliff.

Sure.. by putting out good movies people like and want to go pay to see(usually with their kids) repeatedly. Its not rocket science. Good product is good product and bad product is bad product. You can't 'brand control' yourself out of a dud. You find out why you made the bad film, And You Don't Do Those Things, so next time you'll make a better film that is well-received.

Also true. But part of the reason they've survived is the ability to adapt. And if we're going there.. it means structural changes. Right now I imagine everyone is silent while Solo lands... either with a bang or with a thud. A well-received and performing Solo can help paper over a lot of the problems with 8.

 

On my mobile atm, but...

You need to brush up on your SW history.
That's not what happened at all, and the salty fans were no where near the majority voice of reviews and ESB is regularly held as one of the top SW films.

Cheers,
Jayson

 

Alright, for the rest.

dud
(dʌd)
n
1. a person or thing that proves ineffectual or a failure
2. (Firearms, Gunnery, Ordnance & Artillery) a shell, etc, that fails to explode
3. (Clothing & Fashion) (plural) old-fashioned clothes or other personal belongings
adj
failing in its purpose or function: a dud cheque.​

TLJ is not a "dud".

There are no problems with 8, as far as Disney's concerned. They've even given RJ 3 more films.

Cheers,
Jayson

 

Really? Because I seem to remember the plot to ROTJ involving another Death Star Explosion along with Teddy Bears and most of the grownup stuff and tone tossed aside.

TESB is held as the top SW film *38 years* later. It wasn't until the mid-90's around the time of the Special Editions that people came around on it(typically because those that were kids had grown up and could better appreciate it). Until then, it was the least liked of the three.

Either way, I will concede that TESB in no way inspires the pure vitriol and haterade that TLJ does. If you didn't care for TESB it was a... these other movies were better, but i'd still watch it. If you don't like TLJ(half the audience), its on a level that really makes you want to not even care about Star Wars anymore.

Hey... I heard they were releasing a new Star Wars Movie in MAY for the first time in like 13 years! Nobody cares. That should have people climbing the walls with excitement. It does not. Rogue One was more anticipated.

 

Nobody cares? Have you seen the pre-order numbers on Fandango? It's more then double Black Panther's numbers. By all accounts, BP was a financial success. So, if it makes you not care about Star Wars, then why are you here? ON A STAR WARS FAN FORUM. Cause that makes sense.

 

This number is pure nonsense. It's impossible to reason with someone who actually believes that half of the audience disliked TLJ.

According to Deadline, the Solo audience anticipation score is tracking ahead of RO.

 

We'll see.

Edit: And also... looked it up and you're missing a qualifier in there. Solo is double BP's numbers, in the first 24 hours of release. So really, means nothing other than more people are getting their tickets earlier for it.

 

The tone changed because it was the third act.
Audiences quite liked ESB overall and it carried the second highest earning of the time with quite a good run in theaters, and reviews were good.
The reason folks, including myself, bring up the negative reviews so much is as a point that even ESB had negative reviews.
Hell, so did ANH.
It had scores of reviews calling it unoriginal, derivative, and fan fare.

ROTJ was practically skinned in reviews for insulting fans with a repeat of ANH.

However, audiences on the whole loved these films.

Most of the negative reviews were people not understanding what Lucas was doing; something he wouldn't bother explaining too much until a few decades later when making the prequels.

If you hate SW this much; tough.
This is what it is; it's repeatedly succeeding, and will continue along this path.
You might want to skip out on SW for the next decade or do since RJ was handed a whole trilogy.

Cheers,
Jayson