Solo Box Office Predictions

I could see it doing the same as Rogue One if it is a good enough movie. Seeing as how most of it was reshot by Howard I have faith that it can get a billion.

 

Troubled production, lot's of angry "fans" (TLJ, Ford not playing Han etc), a simple story that won't require immediate rewatch... With all that I think it'll be about $600-700 mil, more is word-of-mouth is good.

 

I’m not sure I have mixed views. I feel like it’s a character everyone liked and loved in the original trilogy so it might be popular because of this. However, it’s not the original Harrison Ford so I presume because of this it will do be considerably less in the box office side of things compared to Rogue One.

 

Globally? $650 million. (I am giving it the benefit of the doubt that it is actually going to be a good movie.)

 

I'm pretty sure it's going to do worse than Rogue One, but the numbers will still be solid. I think that the short gap between TLJ and Solo as well as the competition in May will factor in negatively.

 

I still cannot for the life of me understand why they didn't just push it back to December once it became clear that E9 wasn't going to be a summer '19 release.

 

I guess there's a lot of reasons. The production was in full motion, they've probably spent tons of money after the L&M shake-up just to stay on that date. Granted, they moved VIII and IX around, but in both cases it was prior to the shooting.

Besides, maybe it's a good opportunity to try May out. See what they can do with it. And there's Mary Poppins in December, but I think they could work around that. Push Mary Poppins forward and put Solo around the 20th or something like that.

 

I’m still sticking with my 610-630 WW Run

 

It will for sure not make as much as the others will. I'd say at least 700 mil. But I could be wrong either way. Could do better or worse.

 

Im gonna go with 750M to 850M

 

I think it's going to be a pretty good SW flick. Sadly, I think it'll struggle on the financial end though.

It's facing a lot of competition from Avengers and Deadpool 2, then not many people I know wanted to see Han Solo before ANH. I think there's a fear he'll be a bit of a let down like Anakin/Vader was in the PT. I don't like TLJ and have often dismissed the likeliness of a backlash, but that's more for EPIX since people will have a couple years to get over it and get interested in the next installment. With Solo, it's very close with the memory, very fresh. A lot of fans won't have gotten their second or third viewing of TLJ and/or had time to make peace with it. If there's a movie primed to received fan backlash from TLJ, Solo is it. Linked to that there may be a bit of SW fatigue with two movies coming so close together.

I think Solo won't make much more than 600 million combined domestic and global. I'd put money on it not making a billion, not because I don't want it too, but because I don't expect it to.

 

Wow, I thought I was low balling a bit, but it looks like I hit it pretty close.

 

#famouslastwords.

So what they say... it mattered.

It may struggle to reach even $500 million, which nobody.. even in this thread where people were *really* lowballing it, went.

 

I used to agree with you on this statement, as the Franchise has survived the backlash against the SE, Jar Jar, the PT, but I think TLJ took the cake for fans. I can't begin to tell you how many people in work have told me about their story (their friends, their family) who avoided Solo because they hated TLJ. And they weren't really boycotting like what is going on regarding the Internet and Youtube. They are just indifferent towards the franchise anymore, as they just kind of didn't care as they lost faith in Disney after TLJ. It's a shame because the people I know that have seen Solo, really like it, and think it is better then TLJ, so it is sort of collateral damage at this point. But Episode 9 will pretty much suffer the same fate at the box office, because those same fans really won't care how the story ends after TLJ.

I do wonder if the Solo box office actually ends up ahead of 2nd week projections now because there has been a good word of mouth among SW fans about this movie. And I wonder if the fans on the fence who decided to sit out last week, may give it a try and then Episode 9 becomes collateral damage for TLJ.

 

Episode IX is a year and a half away. By today's standarts that's a very long time. By then most of the TLJ-hating would die down. So, with a right marketing campaign, Disney should be able to bring enough people to the cinema to keep the franchise going.

 

This sums up how I and other members of my family feel. We watched The Last Jedi separately during it's theatrical run. None of us want to see it again, and it does not surprise me that it has reduced interest in the franchise.

The fandom's reaction was the ideal of The Last Jedi's writer/director. I posted the video where he stated that himself here: https://thecantina.starwarsnewsnet....ho-hated-the-movie.53478/page-171#post-504432

I have been at a theater opening weekend for every previous live action Star Wars film for the last twenty years. I want to eventually see Solo, I just don't feel excited enough to go to a theater to see it.

 

All it takes is that mythical PERFECT MARKETING CAMPEIGN. Throw money at it! That could work!

Not really.. no. At this point, Any marketing campaign they put forward that involves simply plowing forward and acting like Everything Is Awesome with TLJ is money they put in towards continuing to tear down the entire Brand.

You cannot change people's minds through the expenditure of money, only harden their opinion. If they agree with you, they will further agree with you. If they don't agree with you, they'll really not agree with you. If their minds have yet to be made up about something, only then does an ad campaign work. And at this point, for or against, has anybody's mind not been made up about the debacle of The Lost Jedi?

The only thing that *will* change the situation is a Lucasfilm house cleaning, with mea culpa's all around to give the appearance of a fresh start. Then they have a shot of people even giving them a chance. And it has to happen a while BEFORE the ad campaign even starts for 9 so as to give separation.

Whether or not they decide to right the ship or send it to the bottom really happens soon, and all they have to do to send it to the bottom.. is nothing. They have one chance in the wake of Solo cratering to make nice and perform adjustments that show understanding and change, and if they miss that window... they're likely screwed.

 

I think the opposite could be just as likely, perhaps more so. The prequel negativity seemed to peak a few years after episode III. People feel very strongly about Star Wars, and many don't seem to forgive, at least not quickly.

 

The interview is from 15 years ago. Citing it as some kind of meaningful source is ridiculous. He didn't divide audience with Brick Brothers Bloom, Looper, and his work on Breaking Bad.

My family thinks TLJ is one of the best Star Wars movies ever. These kind of antidotal stories are meaningless. People absolutely hate Justice League and then went to see Wonder Woman. General audiences aren't moping around crying about a movie in December. They're making choices today on what movies are available they want to see.

I don't like every movie that comes out. I don't spend months complaining about movies I don't like. I don't blame future movies on past movies. No one is going to make people happy if this is the way they behave.

 

Never underestimate a good marketing campaign. Solo had too much stacked against it to blame TLJ alone. I doubt TLJ hatred is even one of the top 3 reasons. Besides, with all the Prequel-hating, people still came to see all 3.

Haters gonna hate. Sometimes there is nothing to be done. Heck, I still see an occasional complaint about Anthony Ingruber.