SPECULATION The Force Awakens Box Office Predictions Here Please!

I'll say! Here's what DIS has done in the last month since tickets went on sale:

 

...I have 10,00 shares in a retirement account so I'm all good .

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 20, 2015, Original Post Date: Nov 20, 2015 ---

What's the P/E ratio? THAT COULD MAKE OR BREAK THIS.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 20, 2015 ---

And remember, if a stock inflates too much, it could explode in a bear marketplace. It could canibalize its own sales, unless you wait it out like i am.

 

We won't know the effect of TFA on P/E for at least two more quarters, until then, let the good times roll, baby!

 

I'd say, low end: 50 cents on the dollar, high end: $3 on every dollar and then it will ease off by May 2016 until the first trailer for VIII is released.

 

When they say the film had a budget of $200 million, does that include marketing?

 

"You tell the man,Blue Horseshoe Loves Anacott Steel."

 

Marketing usually is around 25% of the budget, so add 25% of 200 million dollars and add that to the budget, so...it will be $5,000,000.00. That does not include mercy and all, which the toy companies would cover for manufacturing and orders and all for an equity stake in those brands. So, really, it's a dependent variable of a minimum of $205,000,000.00. Although, I would add roughly $50,000,000.00 to that number to factor in a period of 12 fiscal quarters for LFL.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 20, 2015, Original Post Date: Nov 20, 2015 ---

...?

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 20, 2015 ---

Who is that?

 

a quote from wall street.

disney stock market rolling big bucks

 

25% of 200 mil is 50 mil. So $250,000,000 total minimum budget for the movie. Kind of astonishing to think they'll make that kind of budget back in one weekend. Not including toys which is by far the biggest money maker. They'll make their 4 billion back in one movie. Good move, DIS. Iger FTW.

 

It is now. I predict it dipping really low in the weeks leading into New Year's Eve after December 18th, 2015.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 20, 2015, Original Post Date: Nov 20, 2015 ---

They'e already made their marketing budget back. Their entire ROI will be made within 1.5 days with the rest being profit/profit-sharing.

 

That's a production budget; the cost to make the film (including post), Before marketing and distribution are added in.

To get a very rough idea of when a movie is going to reach its breakeven point, multiply the production budget by 2-1/2.

So, for your $200M example, that movie would need to bring in 500M to break even.
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*Disclaimer: I am not an accountant. Just a fan since I was a kid of movie production. Besides, even if I were an accountant, I have scruples -- which pretty much kiboshes any chance of being a Hollywood Accountant.

 

It's typically 25% of the budget added onto the full budget when it comes to basic marketing principles in entertainment business. .

 

Forbes:

It’s difficult to overstate how big this movie will be. This is a full-blown phenomenon, one that is a perfect confluence of distribution, global hype and pop culture, and from an investor’s standpoint, it’s hard to ignore the possibilities.​

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/10/30/star-wars-the-investor-force-awakens/

 

Yes, hard to ignore, but it's too big of a risk unless you can afford ton lose the money.

 

All stocks are that way. We can minimize the risk with buy and hold, but there's always a risk.

 

Yeah, I had around 3,000 or so Disney stocks and 10,000 Apple stocks, but sld most of my Apple stocks last summer when there was no upgrade to the iPad Air, and then sold over 50% of my Disney stock when I was working for Disney because we have a stock limit as to hoe much we can own for straight assets of the company.

 

Yes, less incentive for insider trading. Or market manipulation. All we can do is talk it up on the forums, lol.

 

so SHHH....But i hate Disney now so i could care less . And change that lightsaber to red for me because I'm evil Luke Skywalker...

OOPS.


SPOILER.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 20, 2015, Original Post Date: Nov 20, 2015 ---

so SHHH....But i hate Disney now so i could care less . And change that lightsaber to red for me because I'm evil Luke Skywalker...

OOPS.


SPOILER.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 20, 2015 ---

Yeah...

 

(darth)

 

And how does my answer conflict with that?