SPECULATION The Force Awakens Box Office Predictions Here Please!

Perf.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 20, 2015, Original Post Date: Nov 20, 2015 ---

Because you were saying to multiply the budget by 2 or 2.5 times. IF that was ever to be the case, hypothetically speaking, it would be made up in product placement like Duracell, for example, or Dolby.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 20, 2015 ---

@HAL'sgal that saber looks purple...

 

@HAL'sgal's question was when they say a movie's budget is (say) $200 million, are they including marketing.
I answered that's a production budget they're referring to, Before Marketing and Distribution.

The factor of 2.5 times is a rule of thumb for figuring a breakeven point. A breakeven point is a much different, and bigger thing than a marketing budget.

So, [USER]@AstromechRecords [/USER], I answered that it doesn't include marketing, but didn't provide a marketing number.
You followed by providing a number, rough as it is.

 

Marketing is always an estimate until you see the numbers from various vendors before deciding. And yes, I guess everyone was confused at first, especially me. Prod. budget including Pre/Post? A Breakeven point happens once you hit the ROI of every cent up until your sales agents...unless you're making a film all wrong.

 

Yes. Budget to the conclusion of Post production, and it's ready to be delivered to the distributor.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 20, 2015, Original Post Date: Nov 20, 2015 ---

Here's an article you might find interesting, @AstromechRecords.

 

https://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Qi68KwJg5K4

 

@HAL'sgal, I just discovered, after a cursory google, not everyone is reporting a "production budget" as the same thing.

I'll use Avatar as the example.

20 Century Fox officially quoted Avatar's "production budget" as $237 Million.
Yet the-numbers.com quotes Avatar's "production budget" as $425 Million!

The studio (naturally) is using the term as I have always known it.
But the-numbers.com is indeed including marketing in what they are (tsk*tsk) calling a "production budget", and that (in their case) would be the gross costs that need to be recouped.

So it seems the term production budget is not used correctly by everyone.
Some (not all) will include marketing in their quote.

See? I am man enough to admit when someone else is wrong!

 

I can almost guarantee that Star Wars will definitely make over $200 million on opening weekend, BUT the things that are going against it as of now are the Christmas shopping season, weather changes affecting movies (blizzards, thunderstorms, etc.), and of course the ability of the fans to be able to get to the theaters and motivate them to make sure they make it. Star Wars has been such a split community since the prequels and the hesitation for people to trust JJ Abrams is going to affect the movie in a minor magnitude. Could this reduce tickets sold? Yes. Will it affect records? Over time, yes it will. As long as people are willing to keep coming, Disney will continue to push forward as planned. Their marketing is what it is and I enjoy it.

 

Thanks very much Dave. That might be why I asked in the first place, I hear different numbers and get confused. Which is not all that hard for me to do, anyway.

 

So the experts have been going back and forth on whether TFA will break JW's record, at first they said no because of December's history, but now they are all coming to a consensus that it has a real shot.

 

let's be honest here.. there a lot of people who are unaware about TFA, let alone the fact that it's part of an entirely new trilogy. when all of us supernerds see it 3 or 4 times in the theater, the general population will jump on the bandwagon and star wars fever will spread like wildfire. obviously the disney marketing has been extraordinary, so people are aware there is SOMETHING coming. i've had quite a few people ask me "does this take place after 6?" "is this a reboot?". i used to be hesitant about TFA being #1 worldwide, but the fact that OVER $50,000,000 worth of tickets have already been sold and we're still a month out.. i'm starting to feel optimistic that we may win the gold on this one.

 

i genuinely thought jurassic world was a mediocre movie, at best... and i'm not really picky when it comes to movies. the only reason it did well (in my opinion) was the overwhelming nostalgic factor. and if we're speculating box office numbers based on nostalgia, star wars> jurassic park. (obviously that's a TAD biased, but oh well) let's get #1 for TFA!

 

Exactly.

 

On one hand: http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...e-sales-doesnt-mean-a-record-opening-weekend/

On the other hand, some rather ridiculous/fuzzy napkin math with absolutely no correlation (in part due to lack of figures):

SW sells 10X+ Hunger Games pt 2 presales.
Hunger Games pt 2 opens this weekend.
SW box office = 10X Hunger Games pt 2 opening weekend box office (the movies historically are north of 120M)?

TFA will get 1.2B opening weekend!

That's 1.2B adjusted for inflation!




I kid.

 

This is a once in several generations "Event Movie "...it will not only break but SMASH records...everywhere

A couple of years ago I said this would be the first $3bn movie and I still stand by that

 

This today from Deadline.com: They are predicting $100 Million in pre-sales by opening day!

From the article:
'With such lofty advance sales, that near $300M opening may not be so crazy now. Said one rival major studio marketing chief, "When it comes to the opening of Star Wars: Force Awakens, there isn’t an opening that would surprise me. You could put a 2, a 3 or a 4 in front of it. Nothing would shock me.”'

 

"Disney has only run a minimal part of its ad campaign. One non-Disney source says that figure is as low as 5% and is going to swell this coming week as we head into Thanksgiving, a prime time for eyeballs at the multiplex."

Only 5% of the campaign? Lots to come.

 

I don't want to be a pessimist, but in light of what happened in France, and with a busy holiday season coming up, there might be an heightened awareness of possible terrorist threats/activity to shopping malls and movie theaters close to Christmas that could make some cinemas shorten their business hours. It would just take one joker to make a few bogus bomb threats to cause a lot of places to close up. Or, heaven forbid, there would be a repeat tragedy like the one for 'Dark Knight Rises'. While this wouldn't deter me from going to the movie (assuming there isn't an immediate threat to my local mall and cinema), I know of many people that just as well stay home for the holidays. I'm not saying this will happen and I hope it doesn't- and I don't say it primarily because I'm worried about it affecting B.O. performance so much as I don't want anyone to die. Further, I don't think it'll negatively affect TFA's overall B.O. performance, but it could stifle the movie breaking early B.O. records. Hopefully nothing terrible happens (and I don't think anything will) regardless if it affects TFA at all.

That said, records are made to be broken. Some movie is going to make 3 billion worldwide, and hopefully that is TFA. In fact, I hope it shatters records all around that it would be YEARS for some other movie to come close to TFA's numbers let alone match/beat them. It's about time Star Wars gets back on top.

As for a solid prediction for TFA, I have none, since I'm usually wrong when guessing what a movie is going to at the B.O. After all, I thought Jurassic World have a lukewarm (at best) B.O. performance whereas I thought Fury Road would be huge, smash hit. So there. But if I were pressed to give a prediction, hell, I'd say somewhere north of $500 million- domestically.

 

While we are counting all this money, I think it would be wise to remember to keep aside enough for rent and groceries.
(For the next few decades, at least).

For this season especially, remember what Little Timmy (with the crutches) said,
"May the Force be with us, every one!"

 

I noticed that The Hunger Games new movie did not make the expected money the studio thought. Also several other films did poorly as well..could this be related to STAR WARS THE FORCE AWAKENS?!!!