SPECULATION The Force Awakens Box Office Predictions Here Please!

Sure, I think it's possible for Star Wars The Force Awakens to have pulled in some of those sales.

But there are many other factors than TFA (*points to colours in his avatar, as a for-instance...*), that can affect sales.

 

a cool and calm 1.8 Billion WW

Which is still amazing and would be #1 all-time for a STAR WARS film

 

It's beyond insane to think that one of the only places in the world where someone can completely lose themselves and live in an alternate universe is turning into one where you constantly feel the need to look over your shoulder and make sure everything is fine. Maybe it's just me, but with all that's been going on lately, I'm a lot more alert when I'm in the theater, and my mind isn't completely on whatever movie I may be seeing, which isn't the way it should be. I would feel a lot more comfortable if there was ANY form of security at theaters (preferably some metal detectors as well) and I'm hoping that all goes well on opening week, as it probably will.

 

Interesting.

I'm pretty sure American fantasy films do pretty well in The East, so fingers crossed. I mean, it has to beat AVATAR.

 

I'd predict about 650M Domestic and about 2.1B globally for a first run of 2.75B. Slightly lower than the OP predictions, mainly due to the theater unease lately. I hope I'm very wrong and we eclipse 3B overall. Yes I know I said "we." Too much of a fanboy.

 

It may be #1 at the box-office on its first week of release, but then positive word-to-mouth for magnificent family movie "Alvin & The Chipmunks 2" will probably boost it passed Star Wars for the rest of the Holiday season.

Too bad for Star Wars that Fox is releasing that movie the same week... but totally understandable since it's the perfect spot to boost its visibility for the next Academy Awards.

 

It's not really conservative when you take into account that TFA comes out in December rather than a summer month. The current record holder for a December Opening Weekend is The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey with $84.6mil. $170mil opening weekend in December would SHATTER the current Dec record.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=12&p=.htm

And even on the adjusted list, the record holder is LOTR: Return of the King at $100.5mil... So even then, $170mil OW would kick the current record's booty.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=12&adjust_yr=2015&p=.htm

 

I have my own method for predicting the opening weekend for The Force Awakens.

I start by predicting how many tickets per cinema will be sold by the end of Sunday for 3 other movies.
Jurassic World, Mockingjay 2 and Return of the King.
In my method, this "tickets sold per cinema by end of Sunday" I call "hype".

Hype for Jurassic Park = 5040
I assume hype for Jurassic World to have the same hype as Jurassic Park.
5040 x 4274 (cinemas) x $8.34 (average ticket price for 2015) = $180million plus IMAX
Actual box office by the end of Sunday was $209million

Hype for Hunger Games, Catching Fire and Mockingjay 1 = 4655 - 4547 - 3538
I assume a similar drop in hype between Mockingjay 1 and Mockingjay 2 as there was between Catching Fire and Mockingjay 1.
2529 x 4175 (cinemas) x $8.34 (average ticket price for 2015) = $88million plus IMAX
Actual box office by the end of Sunday was $103million

Hype for Fellowship of the Ring and Two Towers = 3952 - 4849
I assume a similar rise in hype between Two Towers and Return of the King as there was between Fellowship of the Ring and Two Towers
5746 x 3703 (cinemas) x $6.03 (average ticket price for 2003) = $128million
Actual box office by the end of Sunday was $124million

Jurassic World tracking was $125million. The reason it made higher than my prediction was because the hype was higher than Jurassic Park, not the same. Jurassic World hype = 5922
For Mockingjay 2 the hype was 2810, not 2529 as predicted. There was a drop in hype, just not as big a drop.
For Return of the King the hype was 5558, not 5746 as predicted. There was a rise in hype, just not as big a rise.

So now we come to the prediction for The Force Awakens
Hype for Phantom Menace = 7,003
I assume hype for Force Awakens to have same hype as Phantom Menace.
7,003 x 4500 (cinemas) x $8.34 (average ticket price for 2015) = $263million plus IMAX

You might think this prediction is too high and listen to reports about The Hobbit being the record opening for December. Don't listen to those reports because they ignore the fact that Return of the King made $173million by the end of Sunday, when adjusted to 2015 prices.
They ignore all the people that went to see Return of the King on Wednesday and Thursday. RotK is just one example, but a perfect example because we can compare Star Wars to Lord of the Rings and get an idea of Star Wars potential in December.

The majority of people go to see a movie at the cinema once and if they are hyped enough they will go before the end of Sunday. Doesn't matter what day. They have a choice of Friday, Saturday, Sunday and if possible Wednesday and Thursday. Once they have gone and seen that movie, that's them done.

My prediction for The Force Awakens being $263million plus IMAX is based on it having the same hype as Phantom Menace.
Maybe it has less. How much less?
"HYPE"
7003 Phantom Menace
6752 Revenge of the Sith
5999 Attack of the Clones
5922 Jurassic World
5911 Spider-Man 2
5874 Avengers
5558 Return of the King
This is the top movies of the hype list that includes Star Wars, Marvel, Potter, Hunger Games, Twilight, Lord of the Rings and others.
Remember it's STAR WARS.
HYPE for Star Wars is REAL

To any doubters, let's see how close it gets to $263million, or maybe how far beyond it gets if the hype is higher than TPM

 

Alvin 2 : Will just kick The Force Awakens' A$$

Seriously folks.. who is serious enough to release a movie on the same week but a kamikaze?

 

No idea what most of those numbers mean, but it looks cool! $260m for TFA would be very nice, indeed.

 

It won't make $3 billion worldwide no
Phantom Menace domestic was 46% of worldwide
Attack of the Clones domestic was 48% of worldwide
Revenge of the Sith domestic was 45% of worldwide
I be generous and give The Force Awakens 40%.

I am going for domestic total of $834million. Reason for this is that I believe/hope it will be a better movie than Phantom Menace and so have better legs.
estimated number of tickets sold between first showing and last showing of initial run
"LEGS"
142,734,000 Star Wars
128,345,900 Titanic
128,078,800 Jaws
124,338,800 E.T.
100,000,000 The Force Awakens <<<<<<<<<< I am hopeful it's a great movie and this is a good benchmark
95,904,100 Avatar
86,205,800 Jurassic Park
84,825,800 Phantom Menace
80,983,400 Return of the Jedi
79,043,400 Jurassic World
78,862,200 Empire Strikes Back

$834million would give ~$1251million overseas and give it just over £2billion worldwide. For $3billion in would need to do insane money overseas. Can't see that happening

 

11.59 Sunday 23rd May 1999 Phantom Menace had made $173,467,500, adjusted to 2015 average ticket price, in 2970 cinemas, without 3D and IMAX.
11.59 Sunday 19th May 2002 Attack of the Clones had made $158,143,200, adjusted to 2015 average ticket price, in 3161 cinemas, without 3D and IMAX.
11.59 Sunday 22nd May 2005 Revenge of the Sith had made $206,157,600, adjusted to 2015 average ticket price, in 3661 cinemas, without 3D and IMAX.

11.59 Sunday 21st December 2003 Return of the King had made $171,641,500, adjusted to 2015 average ticket price, in 3703 cinemas, without 3D and IMAX.

11.59 Sunday 14th June 2015 Jurassic World had made $208,806,270, in 4274 cinemas, including 3D and IMAX.

11.59 Sunday 20th December 2015 The Force Awakens had made $xxx,xxx,xxx, in 4500 cinemas, including 3D and IMAX.

Use the Force and predict what x will be

 

Most films tend to be "written off" for the most part before it's even released, so on their statements and all, it's a "failure" and they make more money back on the back end, which is a common practice...whatever TFA ends up making, I'm sure that the "REAL" number *COULD* be twice that figure .

 

1980 - Empire Strikes Back had sold ~2,693,100 tickets by the end of the first Sunday - 126 cinemas
1983 - Return of the Jedi had sold - 10,685,800 tickets by the end of the first Sunday - 1,002 cinemas
1993 - Jurassic Park had sold ~12,115,800 tickets by the end of the first Sunday - 2,404 cinemas
1999 - Phantom Menace had sold ~20,799,500 tickets by the end of the first Sunday - 2,970 cinemas
2001 - Fellowship of the Ring had sold ~13,273,800 tickets by the end of the first Sunday - 3,359 cinemas
2002 - Attack of the Clones had sold ~18,962,000 tickets by the end of the first Sunday - 3,161 cinemas
2002 - Two Towers had sold ~17,563,900 tickets by the end of the first Sunday - 3,622 cinemas
2003 - Return of the King had sold ~20,580,500 tickets by the end of the first Sunday - 3,703 cinemas
2005 - Revenge of the Sith had sold ~24,719,100 tickets by the end of the first Sunday - 3,661 cinemas
2015 - Jurassic World had sold ~25,309,900 tickets by the end of the first Sunday - 4,274 cinemas
2015 - Force Awakens had sold ? tickets by the end of the first Sunday - 4,500 cinemas

There is a STAR WARS MOVIE, a SEQUEL TO THE STAR WARS OT, being released in ~4,500 cinemas in 2015 with 2015 ticket prices including 3D and IMAX prices!

Force Awakens will SHATTER the records. This is no time for caution.

 

The original Star Wars stayed in the theater for an entire year. TFA seems poised to match the original in terms of cultural impact. I don't think it is unrealistic to see it staying in theaters for as long as six months if people keep going back.

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 5, 2015, Original Post Date: Dec 5, 2015 ---

Stepping out in faith though I would say it will be unprecedented, the sky is the limit.

 

Wouldn't ANH beat this if you adjusted it for inflation ?

 

I voted no. Prove me wrong TFA!