OFFICIAL NEWS A Lasting Record Of TLJ's Financial Performance.

I've done some reading up and those are articles by contributors. Sure they use data but they are opinion pieces.

You're really getting desperate aren't you?

 

I am in no way desperate. I continue to offer you facts and you continue to stick to your opinion that this isn’t a polarizing film that is underperforming it’s lofty expectations.

Here is another article put together by professionals that suggest the film is in for a 62% decline in it’s second three day weekend.
http://deadline.com/2017/12/last-je...efron-greatest-showman-box-office-1202230784/

Industry estimates as of midday Friday:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi (DIS), 4,232 theaters / $28.3M Fri (73%)/ 3-day cume: $83.6M (-62%)

If estimates hold up this is what TLJ looks like compared to TFA on the same days of release + the gap is widening every day.
TLJ = $414 Million
TFA = $571 Million

 

Read my other comment to you. 62% isn't the terrible end you make it out to be. Heck Spider-Man homecoming dropped the same, and that was a main superhero film that opened way under TLJ. Disney expect it, they won't be shocked by it.

I offer facts that you continue to ignore, because it goes against your doom mongering narrative.

 

Movie (domestic unadjusted) / Second Weekend Gross / Drop compared to First Weekend (lower is better)
The Force Awakens (Dec. 2015) / 149202860 / -39.83% drop
Jurassic World (Jun. 2015) / 106588410 / -48.95% drop
The Avengers (May 2012) / 103052274 / -50.32% drop
Rogue One (Dec. 2016) / 64033768 / -58.71% drop
Age of Ultron (May 2015) / 77746929 / -59.35% drop
The Last Jedi (December 2017) / 83,600,000 / -62.00% drop (estimate)
Batman v Superman (Mar. 2016) / 51335254 / -69.08% drop

 

you to huh. You just can't resist publishing early numbers. Well guess what, Friday isn't over, kiddies are coming out and WE ALL HAD IT WRONG! ALL OF US!

This is normal, I talked to some off my old BO buddies and they whacked some sense into me. Guess what also dropped 62%...Spider-Man homecoming and several other blockbuster films!

 

Dropping some or not it will outbox any movie its path and is projected to make over 100 million this weekend. 110 mil to be exact. It's also 21% ahead of Rogue One Lagging some behind TFA, but so what? All the while soaring to 650 mil worldwide.

 

And those are early projections (deadline revises these a lot) and they still haven't finished counting Friday. %margin already closing down!

 

It's crossing what at the moment....around 600-650 million? It's in between TFA and R1.

So, yes it is meeting expectations just fine.

Maybe not the expectations of the writers of the opinion pieces you refer to, though.

 

I really don't get why people want this movie to fail. I don't like the Transformers movies, but I don't waste my time hating on them like this.

 

It'll get a good boost starting off from Monday to when the kids go back to school.


Daily trends (with Deadline's Fri-Sat-Sun-Monday estimate). Day 11 = Monday

 

Well the difference is that probably not many loved those movies to begin with, it's easier to hate what you love.

 

While I guess I understand that, if this movie failed, it could very damaging to the SW brand.

I certainly hope no one would want that.

 

And Rogue One, on that same Wednesday to Thursday jumped 12.1%... Rogue One has almost the same exact scenario as TLJ does as far as Holiday schedule and kids being off. Funny how that works?

Now, as i have said a couple times, I do not think that TLJ is going to see as generous a bounce as many believe it will when the kids go on vacation. There is just too much working against it right now. There is no doubt that there is an undercurrent of bad word of mouth surrounding this film. You all can argue to your blue in the face as to how much there is, but, you just can't dismiss it that it is there. TLJ has to endure a full week of this negative word of mouth, which may deter some parents from taking their kids to TLJ and take them to a more favorable movie.

There is no dismissing that Jumanji has done over 14 million on a Wed and Thurs. There is no denying that had taken away from TLJ. Am I saying Jumanji is going to beat TLJ this weekend? No I am not saying that. All I am saying is that no matter how you want to play the game, the "kids off of school" bounce might not be as good as many hope it is.

And again, the OW was not all Star Wars fans, but, what is a fact, is that the OW was made up of a huge amount of pre-sales, which translates into people buying tickets because of the name, because of the hype that came from TFA, and had very little to do with the quality of the movie that is called The Last Jedi. Moving forward, ticket sales are going to be more about the actual movie and less about TFA or the name Star Wars.

Am I making any kind of prediction of failure? Of course not. I'm just saying that as some people are chastising others for coming in on the low side, I think those people should be equally warned of being too optimistic.

Edit: and also, no one here knows what Disney's "expectations" were for the Box Office. Surely they figured that there would be a decline from TFA to TLJ. However, as some others have pointed out, LFL and DIsney already gave Johnson a trilogy of his own, so it can easily be surmised that LFl and Disney loved what they saw with TLJ and quite possibly had high expectations for what it was going to do at the Box Office.

 

Movie (domestic unadjusted) / Cume as of Second Wkd. / % of final total gross
The Force Awakens (Dec. 2015) / 540058914 / 57.66% of final total gross
Jurassic World (Jun. 2015) / 402800065 / 61.75% of final total gross
The Avengers (May 2012) / 373071647 / 59.85% of final total gross
The Last Jedi (Dec. 2017) / 380202356 (estimate)
Rogue One (Dec. 2016) / 286033442 / 53.75% of final total gross
Age of Ultron (May 2015) / 313402397 / 68.28% of final total gross
Batman v Superman (Mar. 2016) / 260408047 / 78.83% of final total gross

The Last Jedi (Dec. 2017) / 380202356 (estimated cume as of second weekend)
If 50% of final total, then final total will be 760 million.
If 53.75% of final total, then final total will be 707 million.
If 57.66% of final total, then final total will be 659 million.

Deadline has an estimate for Friday-Saturday-Sunday-Monday of 118 million while Variety has a Friday-Saturday-Sunday-Monday estimate of 110 million. A difference of 6.78% between those two.

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/star-wars-the-last-jedi-box-office-christmas-weekend-1202648308/
http://deadline.com/2017/12/last-je...efron-greatest-showman-box-office-1202230784/

The final true second weekend gross is affected by where it ultimately ends up.

 

I think most of us agree that this is a polarizing film. It also is going to be a financial success no matter how you look at it. The expectations for this movie have always been that it will not come close to TFA but will out perform R1. It is pretty clear that this is what is going to happen.

I loved the movie. I really don’t care who else loved it or who hated it. People are allowed to have their own opinions. But it does seem to me that those who hated it are trying to find ways to justify that hating the movie is the right thing to do. That in return is causing some of those who loved the movie to get defensive and try to defend the movie. It’s all kind of crazy if you ask me.

 

Why wouldn't anyone compare The Last Jedi to Rogue One? Do you honestly think the Executives and bean counters at Disney aren't comparing? It's the Intellectual Property that carries the brand name. The Opening Weekends for each movie are what they are. Once again, for TLJ, it's opening weekend is mostly pre-ordered tickets before anyone saw the movie. They are tickets sold built off of the hype of TFA and the IP's brand name. Once you move out of that opening weekend, ticket salea become more and more about the quality of the movie.

If you don't think the Execs and Bean Counters at Disney haven't noticed that The Last Jedi's day to day %'s have all been worse than Rogue One's than I think you're kidding yourself.

Again, Rogue One and The Last Jedi are sharing an almost exact holiday and school vacation schedule. Meaning both films have a full week in the Theaters before Christmas and before the kids hit their holiday break from school. Yet, TLJ has yet to beat Rogue One in day to day percentages.

I'd bet the house that Disney is looking at that and sweating a little. In the business world, if Disney projects TLJ to bring in $750 million domestic, and it only brings in $700 million, they consider that losing money. That's how it is in big corporations, when the real profits don't meet projected profits, it's considered losing money.

So you might not compare TLJ to Rogue One for whatever reason you want to spin, but, I bet you Disney is making that comparison!

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 23, 2017, Original Post Date: Dec 23, 2017 ---

If I also may add. This is no longer Lucas led LFL where Lucas wasn't going to be too upset if he thought his movie was going to gross $500 million and it only grosses $450 million. While I'm sure he would have liked a higher gross, he was only answerable to himself and he knew the decisions were his.

Disney led LFL is answerable to Bob Iger, who has to answer to share holders. As a publicly traded stock, Disney puts out it's projections on how much it's going to earn in the year ahead. If the actual earnings don't meet the projections than Bob Iger has to go before the share holders and explain why, because those shares aren't worth as much as was "promised" by the earnings projections.

So it's a little funny to sit here and read how people think that if TLJ pulls in $700 million that Disney will be happy. As I said, we don't know what Disney expected to make on the movie, as far as I know they didn't realease their projection. But, I guarantee you that if their projections were $750 (domestic) and the movie only brings in $700 million, Bob Iger is picking up the phone and wanting to know what happened. Is it enough for heads to roll at Disney? No, probably not, but, questions will be asked and answers expected because Iger has shareholders to answer too. Iger isn't going to simply say, eh... close enough "it's still a financial success". Lol

 

Thanks! Most informative numbers I've seen so far.

 

Kids aren't going back to school this coming monday. Next week is Holiday week. They'll be out until the 1st or 2nd.

 

You can't compare Friday-Saturday-Sunday to Friday-Saturday-Sunday-Monday. It doesn't work like that.