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SPECULATION Almost time for SDCC, will we get a trailer?

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' started by emphram, Jun 25, 2015.

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  1. Rebo

    Rebo Nearsighted Whill Guardian
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    The fanbase, outside of a few stubborn people, will see the movie whether a trailer is shown at comic con or not. A few thousand upset people in a convention hall is meaningless in the long run for a property like this. It doesn't need to generate buzz. Buzz is inherent to the project. I also think you are overestimating the anger that will be present. In my mind, BTS video may be more interesting and more revealing than another 1 minute teaser that shows nothing except a few nicely finished effects shots and more images of characters staring at things we can't identify.

    Its clear at this point that they want to preserve the mystery of the plot and keep us guessing on Luke, and Rey's origins, and all that stuff for a few more months before the reveals begin. They think this is more advantageous to their marketing than appeasing the convention crowd. Whether they are right or not remains to be seen.

    I do think that you are overestimating the size of the devout fan base though. Even if you are overly generous and take the combined numbers of Facebook likes, Twitter followers and members of SW aimed message boards you come up shy of 14 million world wide. (This ignores that many of these are repeats and many facebook likes are casual fans but ignores a slect few that are hard core fans but don't "practice" on the internet). So even if you are extremely generous again and assume each one of those 14 million will see TFA 4 times in the theater ( and that is a huge number and unlikely) that adds up tp about 560m in box office revenue. That's less than a quarter of what people are projecting as the grand haul for TFA. I'd speculate the real "Fan number" is likely closer to 300-350 million.

    There may be millions of SW fans. But there are billions of casual movie goers. Those are what make an Avatar or Avengers happen. That's what Disney is after. We will all see the movie regardless and repeat viewings will be based on quality, not trailers.
     
    #341 Rebo, Jul 7, 2015
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  2. HarryShoulders

    HarryShoulders Rebel General

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    I think for the folks distressed here, it's more about knowing what was expected from the attendees/knowing your core supporters . Add that to the time they allowed to pass while expectations heated up and you get mixed signals going out. Wasn't TFA appearance going to be scaled down for CC, and then in the last month or so, they decided to increase their presence again? If they don't have something else up their sleeve (which is still possible), and it goes the way of fluff/a couple new pics, it would demonstrate to me the first scary signs of "management's" incompetence.
     
    #342 HarryShoulders, Jul 7, 2015
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  3. emphram

    emphram Rebel General

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    Honestly, at this point I don't think TFA will make it much beyond 1 billion, there are many factors at play (people will be limited in resources between spending on gifts, vactions, parties and expensive dinners). Keeping the hype train at maximum warp is the only way to keep people on the edge of their seats with the film in mind, allowing them anticipate and watch the crap out of it. If the dedicated fan base gives you 500 million dollars, that is a blast load of money that you should not ignore by any means. I know the fans won't skip out on watching TFA, but fostering ill will by turning a blind eye to dedication could have an impact on how the film is received as well as sales of merchandise (toys, comics, books, etc). Lets assume the loss is minimal, say only 100 million dollars, that is still a lot of money that Disney MUST recover from its 4 billion dollar investment.
     
    #343 emphram, Jul 7, 2015
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  4. Rebo

    Rebo Nearsighted Whill Guardian
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    I just don't see no trailer at comic con as the slap in the face you do. BTS video is more interesting to me at this point and potentially far more revealing. I'd be fine with that if I were in attendance.

    As for the general audiences. Its clear that Disney fears burnout if they continue the hype train without stopping until December. So they roll it back for a while. Whether they are right or not will be determined in January. But I don't think we should dismiss the movie for making 2 billion quite yet. December may have competition with holidays, but it offers no competition at the cinema. TFA will have the marketplace to themselves as long as they can sustain it. Movies like Avatar and Titanic were raking in the bucks well unto January. Something that can not be done in Summer where there are other movies to steel your dollars away. If the movie is great and warrants repeat viewings from casual fans, it will break 2 billion. If the movie is mediocre and doesn't draw people back again and again like those other top 3 movies did, then it will probably top out in the 500's range in the US, with 1.3-1.5bn or so world wide. Perceived quality will determine that (meaning what general audiences want to see again and again, not necesarilly quality from a film criticism standpoint. )
     
    #344 Rebo, Jul 7, 2015
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  5. capri

    capri Rebelscum

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    Honestly, is more possible to think TFA will do 2b, than to think it will fail to do 1b..

    It is december, people is on vacation, families are reunited...just take a look at the box office top grossing films: AVATAR (release date: December 18,2009) and then in second place TITANIC (release date: december 19, 1997)...that surely tells you something about people expending money in movie tickets at that time of the year..

    I'm impressed by the reaction of some fans about this, it is like out of nowhere everybody knows tons about merchandising and doing films...relax dudes, they are not disrespecting any fan (not even the comic-con ones...why wait in a line two days to see a trailer that would have been released to the internet 3 minutes later than the panel?? that would have been disrespectful in my opinion..) I'm sure we will be satisfied with what they have in store for us this friday...just WAIT.
     
    #345 capri, Jul 7, 2015
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  6. HarryShoulders

    HarryShoulders Rebel General

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    I get holding out on story by choice, but I don't get the over saturation concern they have. Have the 1st 2 trailers been on TV/attached to movie trailers? No. You can play with that dynamic through marketing appropriately. If there is one media that drives me nuts, it's TV commercials. So omit the TV spots until October = problem solved for the masses.

    It's not about the slap in the face, it's demonstrating you know the core supporters attending to see your product. I think it's fair to see how some might feel slighted, as well as how those same people should also see the other side of the coin and lighten up a bit. It's a sensitive community, what can I say. If I bought my overpriced ticket, plane fare, and took time off from work thinking I would see something awesome, and all I got was long lines and a regurgitation of Celebration, I might be upset.
     
    #346 HarryShoulders, Jul 7, 2015
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  7. Rebo

    Rebo Nearsighted Whill Guardian
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    2nd trailer was definitely in theaters. Saw it on 2 separate prints of Avengers.
     
    #347 Rebo, Jul 7, 2015
  8. capri

    capri Rebelscum

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    Well, that would be a valid point, but the fact is that we don't know for sure what they'll show in the panel...as great as trailers are, there are tons of things they could show and get people excited..(poster, crawl, synopsis, first look at some characters, bts material, new music..)

    who knows? maybe people in there will like what they have in store for them..
     
    #348 capri, Jul 7, 2015
  9. Rebo

    Rebo Nearsighted Whill Guardian
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    I'd take that over a trailer any day.
     
    #349 Rebo, Jul 7, 2015
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  10. capri

    capri Rebelscum

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    seems impossible, but it would be absolute heaven...i'm dying to hear what williams has done with this monster..
     
    #350 capri, Jul 7, 2015
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  11. HarryShoulders

    HarryShoulders Rebel General

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    Well you are lucky then -- I have not seen them where I live and you know what I mean = Omit TV/Internet commericals/Toys until Sept./Oct. AND give the die hard fans what they want too. WIN WIN. CC could still be awesome and no one knows it yet.

    I agree with you guys on this, but just highlighting the concern from some after TFA scaled down for CC and then picked back up, and how that might have sent mixed signals. Whether this was CC concerned for ticket sales begging them to have a showing, or a historic poor relationship between Disney and CC remains to be seen.

    People just want to be a part of something historic and special this go round and it felt like that might be the vibe of cons this year leading up to the release.
     
    #351 HarryShoulders, Jul 7, 2015
  12. Darth Holmes

    Darth Holmes Rebel Official

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    After sleeping on it, I agree some behind the scenes stuff could be more interesting than a trailer.

    I'm still disappointed were not getting any footage and I don't agree with is purely as a comic con attendee.

    I really hope they make the panel worth while. I still expect some type of major reveal with a character or planet location.

    The down side for the rest of you is I doubt anything they show (pictures, music) will get online right away.
     
    #352 Darth Holmes, Jul 7, 2015
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  13. coolbluereason

    coolbluereason Rebel Trooper

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    Didn't see anything, but I'm on lunch and just skimming through stuff. Has Gabriel Gray chimed in again to help clarify things?
     
    #353 coolbluereason, Jul 7, 2015
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  14. Assy McGee

    Assy McGee Rebel Official

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    Gabriel Gray? You're kidding right?!
     
    #354 Assy McGee, Jul 7, 2015
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  15. coolbluereason

    coolbluereason Rebel Trooper

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    Yeah, my dry sense of humor doesn't really translate well to text...
     
    #355 coolbluereason, Jul 8, 2015
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  16. Jedi MD

    Jedi MD Jedi Commander

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    There having a panel that seems like it will include new people. They are live blogging the event on Starwars.com. Although we are not getting a trailer it is obvious we are going to get some new material. Besides the panel there will likely be some more displays that those attending will have the priveledge of seeing. Just because there is no trailer does not mean they are taking it lightly. It is too early to judge that. Let's wait and see what they give us before we go all Chicken Little. If SSCC comes and go and it is proved they half-assed it then they deserve to get ripped. It's just a little premature to do it now.
     
    #356 Jedi MD, Jul 8, 2015
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  17. Zeriah

    Zeriah Rebel General

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    Kevin knows a lot more than he can say so i'll take his word for it. To see in full context go to 57:59.
     
    #357 Zeriah, Jul 8, 2015
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  18. Xinau

    Xinau Rebelscum

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    #358 Xinau, Jul 8, 2015
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  19. Grand Master Galen Marek

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    Wow how long have them guys been camped out there, that's fan dedication by far.
     
    #359 Grand Master Galen Marek, Jul 8, 2015
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  20. Assy McGee

    Assy McGee Rebel Official

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    Cringe.
     
    #360 Assy McGee, Jul 8, 2015
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