Jumanji tops The Last Jedi over holiday weekend.

Good work, trolls. I'm starting to feel like this "fan" site is a place to attack and belittle people that enjoy Star Wars.

How about taking your butthurt feelings and making your own "I hate Star Wars site" and leaving people that enjoy stuff alone.

You people are why we can't have nice things.

 

The cantina is supposed to be a hive of scum an villainy though.

 

There's a sort of implicit logic floating around that an example of pseudo-empirical evidence that TLJ is a bad movie aesthetically is how terrible the box office record related values are compared against some target for measuring against.

TLJ isn't performing poorly, and it's not a dud.

Here's what a dud looks like:
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Murder-on-the-Orient-Express-(2017)#tab=box-office

Murder On The Orient Express had a budget of $55 million.
So it needs twice that to count as the average for successful, and more than that to be - at least at the production studio offices - a hit.

It currently has earned a combined $312 million domestic and international.
$100 of that is domestic, and $212 million of it is international.

The standard average figures for shares in the industry hover around 55% to the studio domestically, and after all considerations are factored in, about 15% of the international earnings.

That gives us back about $86.6 million.
That's 1.6 times the budget.
The typical goalpost is around 2 times the budget.

With Express' rating, if they're lucky, once they're done with all contractual payments out to the various dividend parties, the studio will be happy to break even at this level.
And this film has been out for 52 days.

Now, TLJ is currently sitting at 2.1 times it's budget, and it's only been out for 17 days.


This post could alternatively be titled, "Why I hate percent change as a gauge to anything other than torque ratio".
We get hooked in by huge numbers because they're big.
-67% looks huge, and as a percent change economically, it is.

However, a huge acute energy in a large body doesn't produce the same upset as the same acute energy in a small body.
If the sizes of the waves of change are in the context of an ocean of large volumes of dollars, then the actual total impact to the progression of the motion of that ocean is not so great.

Essentially, something as big as Jurassic World, Titanic, The Matrix, Star Wars, etc... can take seemingly large negative changes in their earnings rates at a given moment in their cycle, and take it like they just got bumped in the shoulder on their stroll down the road.

That same value, however, hitting a smaller film and it's lethal.
They can take a smaller value and it'll be lethal - like -52% for Express.

It doesn't mean anything, really, however.
What you really want to know is whether a film has legs, and the only way to gauge that, is to let it run for a week, collect the percent change per day, then take the percent change of the percent change per day, find the average, reapply the average back onto the last known earning value and apply downward for the length of days the film is currently set to run.
If the final value looks like it's going to fail to return twice the budget, then you've got dud.

If the final value is at around twice the budget, hey, it was successful.
If the final value hits or exceeds two and a half times the budget, then the studio's likely pretty happy.

Percent change means nothing outside of context.
It's just a measure of how much of a change in rate from one reference frame to the other there was.
If I have a Ford Focus that has a 350% increase in MPH from one second to the next, it means nothing when I compare it with a jet plane only gaining 125% MPH from one second to the next until I also include that the Ford was going from 2 to 7 MPH and the jet plane was going from 200 to 250 MPH.

If each mile traveled earns five dollars, then we clearly don't care that the jet plane is under performing compared to the Ford in the percent of increase to the MPH, as the "under performance" of the jet still delivers over a thousand more dollars than the Ford.

Darn.

What matters is how many butts are sitting down and watching the film for how long (an average of roughly 4 million viewings per day currently).
TLJ is doing fine on both counts of continued seating and reaching the twice budget target (and now passing it).

P.S. That doesn't mean if someone views the film as being of low quality, that they are wrong.
Quality is an aesthetic like color and food.
There are general public agreements on aesthetics by participation, but those drift and flow over time.
Anyone up for Oklahoma?! No? Hmm. It was such a hit, though.

And screw everyone. Wrath of Khan sucked!
See? I have an opinion of taste that conflicts directly with mass consumer evidence that the film was well liked represented in its earnings.

It's not useful to try to show how WoK was of poor quality, let's say, in the narrative, by pointing to finances because the value I place on the narrative structure is not directly correlated to public consumption and financial deals.

Cheers,
Jayson

 

Upsetting a great part of the fanbase is not going to slow down the franchise's box office hauls, which the prequels proved. Although it seems TLJ is way more divisive among fans than the prequels, but that's not the real problem.

The real, eventual problem is over-saturation.

 

Scot Mendelson, a Forbes box office expert calculated today upon first 18 days of theatrical release, (now complex math they have can give high asurity).

The final The Last jedi cume will be very likely 1.48 billion dolars.

Divisive in any way, some would say it success, some would say nay.

Its 30 % less than Force Awakens, a drop which in fact every sequel experienced( Empire dropped 30 % compared to New Hopre, and Clones were 30 % behind Phantom Menace).

 

They make Kylo look like a saint.

 

True to an extent...my villainy pertains to gambling and I just won 3,257 credits. I'm now ready for Canto Bight.

 

It drops more, but it will earn the studio more than TFA since they raised the share rate to 65% instead of TFA's 55%, so at 1.48 billion to 200 million budget, less shares averages, it'll end up over 2.5 times the budget in earnings. TFA achieved 2.2.

Cheers,
Jayson

 

Well, I've already heard... The Holiday Special is better than The Last Jedi... oh yeah now I remember, Luke was all shiny and had some make-up on for that one.

 

i dunno i watched the trailer and it seemed ho have a load of people who look about 30 pretending to be school kids who are then transported into a retro looking video game and get to play been the rock....... it didn't sell it for me

 

Character assassination!

 

Pretty much TV was assassinated altogether with The Holiday Special.
There is a before and an after the Vietnam War.
There is a before and an after the HS.

 

No no fake news, a lie, every one hates The Last Jedi. Right!?

 

It will make a fortune in what the average person thinks is a fortune but in terms of profit in what a big capitalist company like disney thinks is business they will just break even. Right now TLJ trails rogue one in total gross and given this divide and backlash they will see less movie going consumers in the theaters the next go around.The big test comes with the new solo movie

 

Lies, deception! But no lie is safe! Bor Gullet will know the truth!

 

So a Big capitalist conglomorate like disney is so desperate to say peopel really like their movie that you are saying a hacker/troll WAR GAMES kevin pulsan dark dante geek

Come on you have to have a better excuse than that! What about the hundreds of people who hate the movie on youtube with all their millions of views and thousands of likes.So a Big capitalist conglomorate like disney is so desperate they want everyone to believe that they are getting hacked like this is WAR GAMES. The proof is in the box office numbers and so far TLJ has underperformed it isn't going the way they want it to go.