Jumanji tops The Last Jedi over holiday weekend.

No.
It will make a return at or greater than TFA.
See my posts in this thread or the finance pinned thread for details.

In short, 65% domestic and 15% international divided by the budget will place you now at 2.1 times the budget and growing.
Breaking even ranges are things like 1.5 to 1.7~1.8 ranges.

TFA was 2.2 total (higher budget and charged 55% domestic instead, so harder to reach better return on investments) and RO was 1.9.

It would be a mess if it had TFA's budget and 55% rate, though.
Luckily it doesn't so it's fine.

Cheers,
Jayson

 

If people actually go back and read this thread, the interesting thing is that the only posters that are using words like fail, bomb, flop, are the ones that are purposely over-exaggerating and putting words in the mouths of posters who are of the opinion that TLJ should be doing better at the Box Office than it is. That TLJ is under-performing.

If people are allowed to be happy and cheer for Disney making money, than people are allowed to cheer against Disney making money. If person "A" has a problem with another poster being happy that TLJ isn't performing at the expectations of others, than that is the problem of Person "A". Just like cheering for a sports team, there are going to be those cheering against your team. If you are going to be emotionally tied to the Box Office than it is you that has to accept that, it's not up to others to keep their opinions to themselves just because you don't want to hear them.

For example, earlier in this thread, there was one person in particular that was chastising other posters for their negative view of TLJ, and that poster proclaimed that TLJ was clearly going to cross $700 million box office (domestic). Did anyone here warn them of being overly optimistic or to be cautious in their expectation?

People were dismissing the negative WOM that TLJ was getting as nothing but trolls or butt-hurt fan boys, well, I think it's safe to say now that there is something more to the WOM that this movie has gotten that goes beyond fanboys and trolls.

Short of a miracle, TLJ is probably not going to hit $700 million. Hell, it might not even hit $650 million. I think that is a bit shocking. I bet before December 15, most people that follow the Box Office would have said that while they expected TLJ not to do what TFA did, they would have expected TLJ not to act like the "other" Star Wars 2nd movies and have that same drop. They would have expected TLJ to perform better than ESB and AOTC in relation to their respective first movies.

Especially AOTC lol. Is that where this fandom is hanging it's hat? Comparing TLJ to AOTC? (BTW that's a bit of sarcasm. I love AOTC as do I love all the Prequels) The same AOTC that is constantly derided by the fandom is now a source for propping up TLJ?

AOTC dropped 30% from TPM... TLJ would need to hit $656 million to enjoy that same drop. There is a good argument to be made that it won't get there.

Now that, the reality is gone of TLJ doing $750 million, $700 million, and maybe even $650 million, well now the need for reassuring comes out and people are now rolling out the excuses.

Trolls are giving it bad ratings... It's acting just like any other Star Wars 2nd movie.... It's still making money with a 2.xx multiplier... it holds this record and that record (at the same time conveniently leaving out the record drops the movie has also seen)etc etc etc

The bottom line is this, the expectations by the vast majority of people was that this wasn't just some regular old 2nd Star Wars movie. This was different because Disney was in charge, that Disney understood the fans, because Lucas was gone, because TFA was so "great", because a Star Wars spinoff movie with characters that no-one never heard of and with a sad and downer of an ending where everyone dies still made it to #1 with a fantastic box office, because any other reason that we have seen over the last year as to why people were propping this movie's financial success up on a pedestal. There were all these reasons to believe that TLJ was going to be something more than just the 2nd movie of the ST trilogy, yet, now, the excuse is that it is just the 2nd movie of a Star Wars Trilogy?

Well guess what, the movie is not a flop, it's not a failure, it's not a bomb, but, clearly, with how defensive people are and how the excuses roll out, at the slightest mention of how this movie is not performing as expected, how Jumanji is actually hurting a Star Wars movie, etc etc etc shows that a nerve has been hit.

You continue to want to convey to people that just because TLJ is turning a profit, than that means it isn't performing poorly. Once again, as you and I discussed in the Box Office thread, that just because TLJ is making money, does not excuse it from being a financial disappointment for Disney, for the industry, for the fans that are emotionally tied to the franchise and it's box office.

2.1 or 2.2 or 2.3 does not tell us anything as to where expectations were behind the closed doors of Disney. It doesn't mean anything to fans that wanted to see it cross $700 mil domestic and $1.5 billion WW. Or to the industry as a whole that was hoping that a $750 million box office from TLJ was on the horizon.

You're trying to give a pacifier to those that are upset that people are pointing out that the movie is under-performing, even though it's still turning a profit. They both can be true at the same time.

 

This was discovered by journalists, not Disney. Are you one of those people who thinks Disney buys the journalists?

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 1, 2018, Original Post Date: Jan 1, 2018 ---

Magical numbers of people who like it or not do not decide whether a movie is bad or not. Critics do. They love TLJ.

Box office numbers show a similar decline as with ESB as opposed to ANH, and AOTC as opposed to TPM. If you consider its the third movie Disney made, it is actually performing better than ROTS or ROTJ. But still, whatever these numbers, it doesn't say anything about the question whether the movie is good or not. Schindler's list is outperformed by Transformers I. What should this mean?

And most important for your own person is that you yourself decide whether you like the movie or not.

As for Youtube. Who cares. There are different dynamics at play on youtube. Some type of videos always get more views. Comment sections are always more likely to represent the negative reception of a product or cultural item. They are the one's who belief their voice isn't heard. That's why they reply. If the idea that the movie is bad had been shared more broadly, you would have seen the opposite: only positive comments in the comment sections.

 

The Last jedi will be 70% of TFA box office cume, at around 1.45 billion compared to 2.06 billion of TFA.

That are now very secure predictions from multiple sources.

That is slightly less than expected (1.7 billion), and is not any criteria to be used in debates about the quality of the film.

No need to be fanatic on either side.

 

Why should we care about the mainstream critics? What matters is our own opinions, you said it yourself.

 

Very difficult to base the progression of a movie economically from a monetary consumer climate 37 years ago in terms of ESB...too many different variables based on number of social political economical conditions that aren't the same 2017-2018. I think you must factor in this case the social media public into the phenomenon simply because much of the advertisment and promotion stems from this arena. The backlash isn't a positive look moving forward especially when it is acknowledged openly by cnn,forbes,news week, and many others that it such a divisive film the numbers are not just guaranteed going into epsiode 9..

 

I'm gonna just leave this right here.

Wait... what?.... that website even has TLJ topping Jumanji for the weekend... Say it isn't so..How can that be... especially in a thread titled such as this...

 

Welp:

So much for that narrative.

Not really related to Star Wars, but I'm astounded that Jumanji is a hit. It shares nothing with the original other than the name. Kevin Hart and The Rock are huge box office draws.

 

It's pretty much just counter programming to Star Wars.
Star Wars hype peaked with TFA and will now see a backlash (gasp!) of the general audience to a degree. It happens whenever something gets to peak popularity. It becomes as popular to not like it or "I liked it before it was cool." AKA Hipsterism.

So now that we hit this peak (it was really hit last summer after Rogue One hype died down but before TLJ hype picked up but I digress) you will see some counter programming really pick up.

Daddy's Home, Hateful Eight, The Revenant ended up doing good money for what they were vs TFA because they were counter programming.
TLJ didn't have a 10 year hype train behind it, only a one year layoff from another Star Wars movie...it was never going to get to TFA financially.

When you strip away the fanboyism of hating it and for some ungodly reason, wanting to see them fail, it makes sense and was largely predictable.

 

This thread didn’t age well.

 

I’m so sorry. You must be gutted.

 

The Scorpion King has been defeated once more!

 

In short; because it's not.

I addressed the argument from ignorance issue previously, and regardless how much one can say that the goalposts are unknown, if someone can (and they can and have) assert that the film is under performing, then it can be checked and shown if this is so by using the same set of logic.

For if not, then no one should claim it as under performing at all and this thread shouldn't exist.
No one can prove Disney didn't or did want these numbers after all.

But clearly people have asserted that the film is under performing and as such we can, by the same logic, evaluate its performance by measure to see if such is the case.

It is not under performing.
We can hide the goalposts all we want, but when the estimates are between 1.3 and 1.5 billion; that's not poor. Especially against 200 million invested.

P.S. I'm not a troll (I'm the only person pointing out the 2 times multiplier). I'm not posting for the sole purpose of antagonizing individuals and provoking frustrated responses over content for which I have no investment.

Cheers,
Jayson

 

So can we lock this thread now?

There's already a TLJ performance thread and this was clearly wrong....

 

Oh no...Jumanji...ranks 350th all time worldwide. Uncork the champagne...throw confetti...pop balloons...let loose the fireworks.

 

I wasn't around a lot when Rogue One came out, but where there a lot of threads like this calling the movie a failure?

 

No. This started with the opening weekend's discrepancies between media outlet projections vs actual, and then the -60's percent drop on the second weekend's percent change. At that point, the facts were scooped up across social media outlets and employed variously to support the on-going opinions that the film was a terrible film.

Cheers,
Jayson

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 2, 2018, Original Post Date: Jan 2, 2018 ---

Adjusted for inflation, outside of the original trilogy - which each crossed a billion 2017 dollars domestically, no Star Wars film has hit over 700 million at the domestic box office until TFA.
TPM, which was considered a big success at the box office, didn't hit 700 million at the box office. In adjusted dollars, it came in at 670 million.

I'm not sure why anyone was thinking TLJ should reach 700 million in the first place; just about every pattern of historical probability are against it doing so.
No one should have assumed it was going to hit that value, and no one, equally, should think the movie performed poorly because it fails to hit 700 million.

Cheers,
Jayson