SPECULATION The Rise of Skywalker Box Office Predictions

Damn dude you hit the total on the head. I thought about going 185 but decided it couldn't do lower than 200. Well, I was wrong. Big time.

 

I should have stuck with my original prediction but I got a little caught up in the hype of the last trailer.

 

I'm not sure this is going to break $1B. Word of mouth isn't great and the audience scores aren't great. This film is trending to be a huge disappointed for JJ and Lucasfilm.

 

Yeah, I kind of sensed that the excitement of a new film and the marketing hype caused many to reach for the stars. I'm always excited for a new Star Wars film as well. I saw ANH in a drive in theater in 1977, so I'm glad I'm alive to see the new one's, that's my excitement level.
If I'm still around in 3 years to see the next installment I'll be appreciably more excited. I've been around for half a century looking forward to completing the other half.

 

I posted last week my 190 million weekend prediction because it opened exactly the week before Christmas and a lot of my family/friends/co-workers are seeing next weekend. Most of them are not diehard like me but still lifelong fans and all gave me the same answer, “This weekend is crazy so we’ll see it after Christmas when school is out.”

My point is I don’t expect the typical 60% drop for the 2nd weekend because of the calendar. The movie is still underperforming because I think TLJ backlash/mixed reviews/franchise fatigue are taking its toll. The same happened to Solo but in a more extreme way cause it wasn’t a Saga movie.

 

I'm sure some will spin it that way, but Thursday night the die hards showed up b/c they bought their tickets in advance. Opening night was in line with The Last Jedi's opening. It's just very rare for a film to get bad reviews and poor word of mouth have massive opening weekends. The $200M projections were moved down as soon as the reviews came out. Had the film been reviewed well and the word of mouth was great it would have been a massive weekend. There's really no competition either.

When the reviews came out I hoped that the audience scores would be better. That can happen, but the audience scores are disappointing to say the least.

 

The movie has an 86% rotten tomatoes score from the fans so that word of mouth helps. Trust me, among the people I know who saw it this weekend, only one friend didn’t like it.

 

I haven't talked to anyone who disliked it, but anecdotal evidence is useless. Online polls measuring audience reception are notoriously unreliable. I trust the data that Hollywood uses even if it paints a picture I don't like.

 

I’m not saying 86% should be the be all end all of the conversation, but it gives you some gauge to where the fans are at. My point is 86% is a lot different than 60%, 50%, 40% so that tells me the fans like it more than the critics.

 

I'm not arguing that, but poor reviews and poor word of mouth work to depress the general audience from going to see the film. A B+ Cinemascore means most people liked the film, but it's just less than other Star Wars films.

 

Yes, you are arguing the fans score because that's the word of mouth. My point is that I will walk into work on Monday and alot of my 'casual' fan friends will ask me what I thought about it because they know I'm the SW guy at work. I'll give it a good review. Now that doesn't mean I'm the reason they will see it or not see it but there will be millions of diehards like us that will be asked about the movie from the casuals too. If the majority of us like it, then that does help because we control the narrative right now.

Don't get me wrong, as I still stand by that this movie will not make as much as TLJ (hence my 190 million weekend projection) as I have been saying for 2 years that TLJ damaged the franchise. I even said back in 2018 that Episode 9 wouldn't make us much as TLJ. But I'm saying the 2nd weekend maybe better than your average 2nd weekend blockbuster simply because the holidays are over and kids are out of school and alot of people I know skipped this weekend for that reason alone. I just texted my brother tonight and asked him if he took my nephew last night? He responded, "Nah, we're going next weekend as his last day of school is tomorrow til New Years."

 

That's all well and good, but had this film been well received by critics and audiences it would have easily blown past $200M this weekend. People get caught up in the moment. Star Wars is a huge IP and if there's a bunch of buzz around the film being fantastic it would do really bit box office. My prediction was that this would have made $1.5B had the film been well received. The review/audience numbers I'm seeing are kind of the disaster scenario.

Which is a shame since I like the film.

 

Official domestic opening weekend total: $177,383,864

Congrats to @Rogues1138 for predicting the closest (175m).

 

Thank you very much!!! I guess playing the 2018 Star Wars Blockbuster Challenge paid off! I didn't play the 2019 Star Wars Blockbuster Challenge so someone else could win those awesome gifts, @DarthSnow awarded the top 3 winners Star Wars prizes. I learned allot about the box office. I might enter the 2020 challenge.This was a warm up!

 

Small sample size, but telling: We had a Monday production meeting at work this morning and of the nine people in the room (counting me) only two of us had seen it. In fact, the other seven didn't seem to have any interest at all. Admittedly, those seven weren't big SW fans (ages ranging from 24-55), but they're all movie-goers and have seen past episodes. In fact, the subject of "which movies did you all see this weekend" got brought up, setting us on this course. I didn't say anything, waiting to gauge the room. To my surprise, the other seven never even brought up SW ... I had to bring it up at the end of the conversation. They all kinda shrugged like, yeah whatever. Tells me (and this is a film-loving group) that the casuals aren't in it this time around.

 

This weekend allot of casual fans will find time to go see TROS, (Xmas will be over and school is out) but there will be a significant drop in the box office nonetheless. How significant is the question? Star Wars has legs so it will break a billion dollars but I don't think it will make more than TLJ.

ROTS made more than AOTC simply because it was the last film in PT, good word of mouth, positive critic rating. Repeat viewings might repeat history for TROS, but its a mixed bag.

Will TROS make more than TLJ? We'll have to wait and see.

 

Oh interesting!! I had some people at work ask me about the movie (and one coworker ask about Star Wars as a whole, as she had never seen it and doesn't plan on it) because they've heard about the mixed reviews. And I gave them my honest opinion. The one other coworker who had seen TROS didn't like it, but he also wasn't excited about seeing it.
But pretty much all of my friends who have seen it - none of which kept up with the leaks, bless their souls - LOVED it. I only know three (my best friend and two other close friends who I expected to really enjoy it as they both adore the previous two movies) other people who didn't.

 

Top Domestic Openings All-Time

1. Avengers: Endgame -$357,115,007
2. Avengers: Infinity War - $257,698,183
3. The Force Awakens - $247,966,675
4. The Last Jedi - $220,009,584
5. Jurassic World - $208,806,270
6. The Avengers - $207,438,708
7. Black Panther - $202,003,951
8. The Lion King - $191,770,759
9. Avengers: Age of Ultron - $191,271,109
10. Incredibles 2 - $182,687,905
11. Captain America: Civil War - $179,139,142
12. The Rise of Skywalker - $177,383,864
13. Beauty and the Beast - $174,750,616
14. Iron Man 3 - $174,144,585
15. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 - $169,189,427

 

I remember when allot more Star Wars films were in the top 10. Its the time of the hero. 5 super hero films in the top 10.